Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
In contrast to what we saw happen in the bitcoin markets yesterday when bad news resulted in fairly encouraging price action, today we’ve seen weakness throughout most of the US trading session with price reaching down to new local lows despite some good news out of BlackRock that they have gotten approval to include bitcoin futures in a few of their funds, all of which combined tells us that price is not ready to move away from this ~$30k – $40k region yet hence more consolidation is likely over the coming days. The technicals support this idea so we’ll remain neutral above $34k but will continue to buy dips below that level if given the opportunity (like we saw earlier today).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Let’s begin by zooming into the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price remains inside of the symmetrical triangle following a bounce off of the lower trendline today, a move that has sparked a fairly bullish candle formation as we approach the daily close which is good news for the bulls over the near-term. The improving momentum oscillators, steady A/D line, and rising 200 SMA support the idea of a slight short-term bullish bias back above $36k in the near future, although we don’t think the market is ready for a breakout in either direction so we expect price to stay inside of the triangle through the end of the workweek.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-day linear chart
Next we’ll look at the 3-day chart for a broad view of the medium-term technical setup where we can see that the seemingly bullish consolidation continues within a bullish pennant-type pattern while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications remain encouraging overall, so the bulls still have the upper hand right now despite the recent pause. The fact that the momentum oscillators are finally coming down out of overbought territory is also decent news for the bulls moving forward, hence the updated Fibonacci extension targets above the market, although we would not be surprised to see the triangle broken and extended horizontally given the numerous signs we’re seeing that more price exploration is needed in the $30k’s before we move sustainably higher again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $34,000 for upside to the $40,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
While XMR/BTC continues to consolidate in the low-0.0040’s, we’ll zoom into the 6-hour chart for any clues regarding near-term directionality and right now things don’t look particularly good for the bulls given the developing descending triangle that suggests a test of sub-0.0040 levels in the not too distant future. The falling longer-term moving averages and the lackluster momentum and volume indications support the idea of lower prices before the bulls get active once again, us included, however the previous ascending triangle ended up resolving to the downside against the odds so we’ll stay neutral for now given heightened technical uncertainty.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD 6-hour linear chart
XMR/USD remains a mess on the 6-hour chart given a drop down into the upper demand area over the past several hours thus keeping shorter-term market structure highly uncertain on mixed candle formations and still recharging momentum oscillators, all pointing to more consolidation between $140 – $160 over the coming days. The mixed moving averages and fairly muted volume indications also suggest that more sideways action is likely over the near-term, therefore we’ll get a bit more conservtaive with our buys until the technicals become more bullish.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $140 for longer-term upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
Over the past several days the BSV/BTC bulls have been doing a very good job of keeping price steady around the 0.0055 level which has helped near-term market structure to improve while the downtrend line gets closer and closer, so the moment of truth is quickly approaching. The fairly steady momentum oscillators and some bullish price action recently are telling us that there is a chance that the trendline is broken to the upside soon and the bulls regain longer-term control of the market, however the falling moving averages and discouraging volume indications indicate that the odds slightly favor another pullback once price hits the downtrend line in a few days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0050 for upside to 0.0070.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT has fallen back into the upper demand area over the past few days on some fairly bearish candle formations that are keeping shorter-term market structure pretty heavy while the momentum oscillators continue to fall, so we think caution remains warranted over the near-term. However, we also think that price is in an attractive area for longer-term buys considering the rising moving averages just below the market and the OTE long zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) where price currently resides.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for longer-term upside to $400.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll finish up with a look at LINK where we can see on the BTC pair that price is still consolidating around the bottom of the lower supply area and in between the falling shorter-term moving averages while the momentum oscillators gets closer to overbought and the volume indications leave something to be desired, all pointing to more sideways action in the 0.00050 – 0.00070 area moving forward. That said, market structure continues to improve off of the rounded bottom so we still think that the medium-term bias is to the upside hence we want to buy dips below 0.00050 if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00050 for upside to 0.00080.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD made new regional lows below $20 earlier today thus confirming still bearish near-term market structure while the momentum oscillators remain close to overbought and MACD continues to flash a mild but relevant bearish divergence, so we want to stay cautious over the coming days. Having said that, the longer-term outlook remains favorable overall given the still encouraging volume indications and the rising moving averages so we would like to try to buy dips below $20 over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $20 for upside to $26.
Good Luck, Good Trading!