Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Resilient price action in the bitcoin markets over the past 24 hours off of the $30,261 lows from yesterday has certainly been encouraging, and puts a continuation higher in the near-term back on the table, however there are still too many technical warning signs that we must heed for us to get too bullish at this time. The fact that the US Dollar index has been back above 90 for the past few days is also not a great sign for the bulls moving forward, therefore we’re expecting at least more consolidation between ~$30k – $39k over the coming days, if not a deeper pullback below $30k before the bull market continues (which could be a few weeks from now).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Let’s start by zooming into the 4-hour chart for a granular view of the short-term technicals where we can see that the recent bounce out of the upper demand area has stalled out creating what looks like a lower high which would turn near-term market structure bearish while candle formations remain lackluster, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The rejection at the 50 SMA earlier today is also not great, and neither is the spike below the 100 SMA just after that, so we think a retest of the upper demand area around $31k is likely in the not too distant future, if not a breakdown below $30k (which we would be staunch buyers of given the rather bullish state of the momentum and volume indications).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also return to the daily chart to check in on the trendline where we can see that price took a dip lower earlier today but bounced fairly quickly, therefore the upper uptrend line remains intact for now, although the current candle formation doesn’t look so great and the momentum oscillators have just begun to recharge therefore we’re still leaning slightly bearish for the time being. That said, the still favorable volume indications and the rising moving averages are keeping us in buy-the-dip mode so we want to take advantage of any opportunity below the key $30k level if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for upside to the $39,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
XMR/BTC looks poised for more upside in the near future given the current state of the short-term technicals, namely the bullish consolidation within what appears to be a sloppy but relevant ascending triangle that is forming above the 50 SMA while the volume indications begin to stabilize. The fact that the momentum oscillators still have room to run higher while resistance remains thin immediately overhead also suggests that the path of least resistance is still higher moving forward, although we now think that upside is probably limited to the 0.0055 region over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD 6-hour linear chart
XMR/USD is still consolidating in rather messy fashion between supply and demand areas on a hodgepodge of candle formations that are keeping market structure fairly uncertain while the momentum and volume indications stagnate, all of which suggest more of the same over the next few days. The fact that the moving averages have yet to pick up steam to the upside also points to more consolidation over the near-term, however they are moving slowly higher and price is staying above them so we still think that higher prices materialize eventually.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $140 for longer-term upside to $200.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BCH/BTC
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll switch over to BCH today after a few updates of BSV, and we can see on the BTC pair that price remains below the longer-term downtrend line despite the rally higher over the weekend, which uncoincidentally stopped right at the trendline and the falling 100 SMA. Since that rejection, price has been trending lower again, back below the 50 SMA, while the momentum oscillators stagnate and the volume indications continue to favor the bears, therefore we’re expecting more downside over the shorter-term (at least back down to test the 0.010 – 0.012 support area). Additionally, we remain firm in the view that we will not get bullish until the downtrend line is broken, so that is what we’ll stick to moving forward.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BCH/USD
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
BCH/USD broke out of a long-term consolidation range last weekend on the back of BTC/USD strength which took price all the way up to the $650 area thus confirming a shift to bullish longer-term market structure, good news for the bulls overall. The rising moving averages and still relatively favorable volume indications also point to a longer-term bullish bias, however the momentum oscillators have just begun to recharge, the A/D line has ticked down lately, and there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside before technical support emerges so we’ll stay neutral in case of further downside (but with the intention of buying below $400).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $400 for upside to $600.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
Finally, we want to take a look at ARRR for the first time in awhile where we can see that price has moved all the way down into the intermediate-term demand area for the third time, where it has bounced in the past, on an oversold RSI reading and a textbook bullish divergence on MACD, so we think a reversal in coming in the near future. The hammer candle that is forming today and the falling wedge pattern that has developed over the past few weeks are also pointing to a bullish move soon, which we concur with given the similarities between this one and XMR before it broke out of its wedge.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000500 for longer-term upside to 00001200.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD is not looking too hot today considering that we have a working double top in the longer-term supply area that has been followed up by a swift move lower over the past few days on bearish candle formations that have put pressure on near-term market structure, so we want to be cautious for the time being. The not yet recharged momentum oscillators also point to a challenging environment for the bulls over the near-term, however price is finding some support in the upper demand area while MACD paints a bullish divergence so we are willing to take a shot on the long side if price dips below $0.16 over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.16 for upside to $0.22.