Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It comes as no surprise that the bitcoin markets remain in consolidation mode as expected given the technical outlook that we discussed over the weekend, although it is fairly impressive that the bulls were able to keep their cool despite Janet Yellen, new US Treasury Secretary, saying that cryptocurrencies were of “concern”. Additionally, on the surface it should have been bearish that Deutsche Bank came out with a survey of traditional investors that showed bitcoin being in a bubble along with Tesla, however the market didn’t react to this news either which is a good sign for the bulls overall. We actually think that this last tidbit is actually bullish in nature given that most of those investors polled likely have zero exposure to bitcoin or crypto, meaning we’re still climbing a wall of worry (which is the fuel of secular bull markets). While it looks like the consolidation will continue over the near-term, the evidence continues to mount for a breakout to the upside once it has run its course.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 6-hour chart to start the week as it remains the best view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price remains within the symmetrical triangle on highly uncertain market structure and very mixed candle formations while the 50 SMA overhead rolls over and begins to act as resistance, not great news for the bulls over the near-term. The still recharging momentum oscillators are also a bit of a worry over the next day or two, therefore we cannot rule out a false breakdown out of the triangle, although the rising longer-term moving averages and the encouraging volume indications suggest that we should continue to buy any dip that materializes, whether that be below $34k or $30k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also return to the daily chart where we can see that there is even more room for the market to continue to consolidate within the medium-term triangle which supports the idea of more choppy, sideways action in the mid-$30k’s over the shorter-term, and the rising moving averages and still favorable volume indications support the idea of a bullish bias once this pause is completed. Overall, the picture is fairly clear right now: more consolidation as momentum recharges before a breakout to new all-time highs later this month or early next.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $34,000 for upside to the $42,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While XMR/BTC has yet to catch much of a bid over the past few days, it also hasn’t been sold off much meaning the bulls are building a bit of a short-term base above the new demand area while the volume indications begin to improve, so we’re getting slightly more optimistic over the near-term. However, momentum still doesn’t look that great, the moving averages all continue to fall, and market structure leaves much to be desired so we want to stay fairly conservative until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still consolidating in fairly bullish fashion above previous resistance while the moving averages continue to rise, the volume indications remain favorable, and medium-term market structure remains intact, therefore we continue to lean to the upside once this pause is over. The momentum oscillators are the only signals that are keeping us cautious over the near-term, so we expect more of the same over the next few days, although we think a move higher is nearing so we’ll continue to buy dips.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $150 for longer-term upside to $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
While bitcoin continues to pause, ETH/BTC continues to rip to the upside following a breakout above the 0.035 regional high earlier today on a large and firmly bullish candle formation that has confirmed bullish medium-term market structure, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The bullish reversal in the shorter-term moving average, the rising 200 SMA, and the still encouraging volume indications also suggest an upward bias moving forward, although the momentum oscillators are getting close to overbought while price enters a longer-term supply area so some turbulence in this area is to be expected before a sustainable break of 0.040.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.035 for upside to 0.040.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
Given a new nominal all-time high in ETH/USD today we’ll return to the weekly chart to see where some Fibonacci extension targets might reside once this area of resistance is cleared, and it appears as though the first stop lies around $1736 which would be the 123.6% level, a far cry from the ~$1400 where we are today. The bullish candle formations recently, and the rising moving averages, and the favorable volume indications are also pointing to a continuation higher over the coming days, however overbought momentum could spell some volatility in this supply area until $1420 is closed above on a weekly basis.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1300 for upside to $1700.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart
Finally, BCH/BTC is starting to look very interesting from a technical perspective considering that a higher low appears to have formed on very bullish near-term market structure while the volume indications stabilize and price action looks favorable above the 50 SMA for the first time in a while. The momentum oscillators are also still fairly encouraging, although if the bulls want a shot at clearing the downtrend line then they need to act this week else another selloff is likely before the breakout we’ve been waiting for materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.013 for upside to 0.022.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
Much like BTC/USD, BCH/USD looks poised for a breakout to the upside in the not too distant future given the recent consolidation inside of what appears to be a rather large symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant while the volume indications remain favorable and the moving averages continue to rise. The momentum oscillators are also supportive of a resolution to the upside once this pause has run its course, even if a false breakdown materializes first to scare off weak hands (a dip we would buy if given the opportunity).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $480 for upside to $620.
Good Luck, Good Trading!