Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As election controversy boils over in the US today, bitcoin is getting a safe haven bid with prices rising to new all-time highs above $37,000 without much resistance, which comes as a bit of a surprise to us given how the technicals looked a few days ago. That said, we cannot argue with the market and there is pretty thin air up to the $40k area at this time so it looks like even higher prices are likely moving forward (albeit with random downside volatility from time to time).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Today we’ll begin with the daily chart where we can see that price has moved above the 200% Fibonacci extension level with relative ease over the past 24 hours thus confirming bullish market structure on a bullish candle formation that just painted a few hours ago, and the new daily candle is already looking fairly encouraging as well so the bulls appear to still be in control. The rising moving averages, very favorable volume indications, and a lack of technical resistance until the $40k region also suggest that the bias remains bullish moving forward so we’ll lean that way heading into the end of this tumultuous first workweek of 2021.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart
We also want to zoom out to the monthly log chart now that 2021 has a few days under its belt where we can see that there are clear skies above right now given that there is no historical resistance at these levels, and if the previous cycles are any guide we can see that there is a long way to go before a long-term top forms. Also note that the breakout above $20k last month was on a very bullish candle formation that confirmed bullish long-term market structure while the moving averages accelerate to the upside, so higher prices are to be expected over the course of this year. Finally, the rising A/D line and bullish MACD also suggest more upside moving forward, however momentum is overbought so we need to be prepared for downside volatility at any time hence risk management is paramount right now.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for upside to $40,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to move down to new cycle lows below 0.0040 on bearish candle formations, bearish market structure, falling moving averages, and awful looking volume indications, therefore we want to stop accumulating and get neutral until we see signs of a bullish reversal. On that note, perhaps we’ll see something encouraging emerge soon due to the very oversold momentum oscillators, but it will likely take a pause in the bitcoin rally to spark anything bullish in this market at this time.
Trade Idea: Hold positions for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still treading water around the top of the upper demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations and increasingly uncertain market structure, so we think more consolidation is likely over the near-term. The fact that price remains trapped between the rising shorter-term moving averages also points to more sideways action for now, although the momentum oscillators are getting close to recharged so we’re still slightly bullish overall moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $130 for upside to $180.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BCH/BTC
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at BCH/BTC where we can see that price moved down to new cycle lows last weekend thus confirming still bearish market structure while the moving averages continue to fall and the volume indications suggest persistent selling even that these depressed prices, so we think the bias remains to the downside despite the bounce a few days ago. The bearish candle formations since that small rally and the not yet oversold momentum oscillators also point to more downside ahead, so we’ll stay on the sidelines moving forward.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BCH/USD
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD daily linear chart
BCH/USD is getting very close to it’s all-time high but has hit some turbulence at the bottom of the long-term supply area overhead, which is to be expected, although the rising moving averages, favorable momentum and volume indications, and bullish market structure all suggest that this is simply a speed bump before price moves up into the $500’s.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $400 for upside to $520.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the ARRR bulls, BTC continues to take the wind out of the sails of altcoins thus pushing price down below 0.00000600 after a break of the 200 SMA on a bearish candle formation that is keeping shorter-term market structure firmly bearish, so for now it looks like more pain is ahead for the bulls. The falling A/D line isn’t a great sign for the bulls either, however RSI is very close to fully recharged, MACD is showing a bullish divergence, and price is nearing longer-term support around 0.00000500 so that is where we’ll start to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00000500 for longer-term upside to 0.00001300.
ARRR/USD
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
Despite ARRR/BTC continuing to consolidate below the longer-term supply area on a hodgepodge of candle formations, market structure is looking very bullish right now and the moving averages continue to rise so we think a breakout to new highs materializes in the not too distant future. The steady but not overbought RSI reading and a very encouraging MACD also suggest that the bulls are in the driver’s seat, although we might need to stay patient for another few days before the move higher actually occurs.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.20 for upside to $0.28.
Good Luck, Good Trading!