Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The recent rebound off of the new $28,800 local and regional low from Thursday afternoon has been fairly impressive on the part of the bulls but comes as no surprise given the amount of support below $29k that we mentioned heading into this weekend. Indeed buys below $30k have been rewarded with profit as we suspected they would over the near-term, with a little help from BTC superfriend Michael Saylor over the past few days, although the technicals remain highly uncertain and another break of $30k likely leads to downside below $28.8k therefore we think taking a few chips off the table around current levels is prudent in order to protect against potential downside next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ve got to take one more look at the 6-hour chart this week given the reaction off of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level over the past few days that has resulted in some fairly bullish candle formations and has helped near-term market structure to improve, so the bulls appear to have neutralized the selling for the time being. The still rising longer-term moving averages, the favorable volume indications, and the recharged momentum oscillators are also positive signs for the bulls moving forward, however a retest of the recent lows or a move slightly lower into the $27 – $28k area would not surprise us before the bull market resumes so we’ll leave some powder dry in case of such a selloff.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
The weekly chart remains fairly concerning overall considering that another bearish candle formation is printing this week following a parabolic up move while the momentum oscillators remain overbought and price is very far from the moving averages, all suggesting that the bears might have a bit more in them over the shorter-term. Having said that, all of those moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications remain very encouraging so longer-term buyers should continue to accumulate below $30k regardless of the near-term downside risks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for longer-term upside to the $46,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 6-hour linear chart
The XMR/BTC 6-hour chart remains the most relevant for the time being where we can see that contrary to the odds price is trying to break above the descending triangle today, as well as the moving average confluence just overhead, while the momentum oscillators begin to show some life and the volume indications suggest a selling subsidence, all quite good news for the bulls over the near-term. If the bulls can close price above the 0.0044 level over the next 24 hours then there is room up to the 0.0050 region, however we’d have to break and close above that level too in order to confirm that this winter bear market is truly over.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the weekly XMR/USD chart where we can see that despite the selloff this week and a bearish candle formation as a result, medium-term market structure remains firmly intact, all of the moving averages continue to rise, the volume indications remain encouraging, and support in the upper demand area is still quite strong, therefore we want to continue to accumulate at depressed prices for longer-term upside. That said, the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired so more consolidation in the low to mid-$100’s appears likely for a while longer still.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $130 for longer-term upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
While there is still hope left for the BSV/BTC bulls given there has been no new break in market structure over the past several days, the recent downturn near the downtrend line is quite discouraging overall and tells us that indeed that market is not ready to breakout to the upside yet. The fact that the momentum oscillators leave room for more downside from here is also not a great sign for the bulls, and neither are the falling moving averages or the bearish volume indications, therefore we’ll move back to the sidelines unless/until a higher low materializes.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
The BSV/USDT daily chart remains a mess overall so we’ll zoom out to the weekly chart where we can see that price has fallen back below the rising 50 SMA on a firmly bearish candle formation that is keeping market structure highly uncertain while the volume indications deteriorate further, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The momentum oscillators also don’t look that great, so we want to stay neutral for the rest of the weekend, although support remains strong around the $150 level so perhaps we’ll nibble there next week if given the opportunity,
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC daily linear chart
LINK/BTC is on fire today, up 20% on a break of the 100 SMA on a firmly bullish candle formation that has confirmed bullish shorter-term market structure while the volume indications improve, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The lack of technical resistance until the 200 SMA in the 0.00084 area and the lack of historical resistance until well above 0.00090 also suggests a bullish bias moving forward, so we see no reason to fade this move until those resistance regions are hit over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00070 for upside to 0.00084.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD has broken out of its bullish consolidation to new all-time highs above $25 today on a fantastic looking candle formation that has confirmed bullish long-term market structure while all of the moving averages accelerate to the upside and the volume indications suggest that buyers are still far more active than sellers, so we see near-term upside at least to the 150% Fibonacci extension level around $26.45. There’s likely even more upside than that over the longer-term, however overbought momentum will need to be addressed in the not too distant future so we’ll expect some turbulence once higher extension levels begin to get hit.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $24 for longer-term upside to $30.
Good Luck, Good Trading!