Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(July 29 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

On a slow news day heading into a sleepy summer weekend it comes as a bit of a surprise that the BTC market is holding up as well as it is considering the pace and magnitude of the rally that materialized early in the week, certainly a good thing for the bulls moving forward. The still uncertain short to medium-term technicals should also be weighing down the market a bit here at resistance, but they’re not, so we now think that more tight consolidation around current levels is likely before another late weekend rally as we move into August.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

We’ll take another look at the 4-hour chart today where we can see that price is still consolidating just below historical resistance within what appears to be a bullish pennant while near-term market structure remains encouraging and all of the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, all of which continues to favor the bulls over the coming days. The lack of a dropoff in the A/D line and slowly declining exchange volumes also bode well for the bulls from a shorter-term perspective, although the momentum oscillators are overbought and concerning so even if there is another leg higher before a pullback we think the ~$42k area is all we’re likely to get before then.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

We’ll also inspect the weekly chart for a broad view of the longer-term setup where we can see that last week’s bullish reversal candle is being followed up by a firmly bullish formation this week that is increasingly likely to print on Sunday evening (US), all while long-term market structure remains intact and all of the moving averages remain supportive and continue higher, all confirming our forecast for a resumption of the halving-cycle bull market later this year. The momentum and volume indications also look very good from both a low and high timeframe perspective, hence we still want to be buyers of weakness for longer-term holding, although until we see a weekly close above $42k there is still a real threat of another significant selloff before a sustainable uptrend materializes.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below $35k for shorter-term upside to the $42k area. Longer-term target resides around $100k.

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart

XMR/BTC has broken back above the top of the OTE long zone over the past 24 hours after tagging the rising 200 SMA on oversold and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators, good news for the bulls to be sure, as is longer-term market structure which remains intact. Having said that, the 100 SMA has rolled over to join the 50 SMA in a downtrend while the volume indications remain lackluster and the descending triangle is still in play, so while we’ll continue to buy weakness into support below 0.0060 we’re not ready to get truly bullish until confirmation comes on a breakout above ~0.067.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to 0.0067. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.

XMR/USD

TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart 

XMR/USD got very close to tagging our $250 target over the past 24 hours but hit resistance at the 200 SMA just prior to that level while the shorter-term moving averages continue to move to the downside, so some caution remains warranted in general. That said, encouraging shorter-term market structure, still favorable candle formations, and bullish momentum and volume indications suggest more upside is likely before a significant pullback materializes (probably up to the $270 – $280 area).

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $220 for upside to the $270 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.

Aeon (AEON) Technical Analysis & Outlook

AEON/BTC

TradingView Bittrex AEON/BTC 3-day linear chart

It’s been a while since we analyzed at AEON/BTC but it’s finally starting to look interesting again from a technical point of view considering that a double bottom has formed in the OTE long zone and just above the longer-term demand area while the momentum and volume indications are highly favorable, so things are positive for the bulls moving forward after months of downside. The fact that price has popped back above the 100 SMA while the 50 SMA continues to rise is also a good sign for the bulls, so while more consolidation beneath 0.000022 is likely over the next few days a move up to the long-term downtrend line around 0.000030 seems like it’s in the cards before another major pullback.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.000018 for shorter-term upside to the 0.000030 region.

AEON/USD

TradingView Bittrex  AEON/USD 3-day linear chart 

AEON/USD has made a strong move back above the long-term support/resistance line recently on a firmly bullish candle formation coming off of a textbook double bottom at the rising 200 SMA and the top of the upper demand area while the shorter-term moving averages continue to move higher as well, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The recharged and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators and the stabilizing volume indications are also good signs for the bulls over the shorter-term, although there is still very bearish medium-term market structure at play below the key $1.50 resistance level so we’ll aim for shorter-term upside right now rather than for a sustainable transition back into a bull market.

Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.70 for shorter-term upside to the $1.10 region. 

Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook

DERO/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart

DERO/BTC has broken above a key shorter-term resistance line recently on a string of bullish candle formations that have drastically improved market structure on all timeframes while all of the moving averages remain supportive and continue to move higher, so things are certainly looking good for the bulls moving forward. The favorable MACD and a stable OBV reading are also pointing to more upside in the near future, likely into the OTE/supply area resistance confluence around 0.00035, although an overbought RSI suggests that a buyable pullback will materialize around that level back down to test support in the mid to high-0.0002’s in August.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00025 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00035 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.

DERO/USD

CoinTradePro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart 

It’s been an impressive rally for DERO/USD over the past week on strong candle formations and rapidly improving short to medium-term market structure all while the moving averages begin to pick up steam to the upside again, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The encouraging OBV reading and favorable MACD are also signs that the bulls are in control for the time being, although RSI is overbought and resistance between $11 – $13 is fairly stiff so we think a buyable pullback is likely to materialize in that region in the near future.

Trade Idea: Accumulate below $8 for shorter-term upside to the $12 area. Longer-term target now resides around $100.

Good Luck, Good Trading!