Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(June 28 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Market action is now frustrating both bulls and bears as a battle continues in this $30k to $35k area that is chopping up all but the most experienced traders.  Bears made a new low last week into $28.6k but failed to follow through, while the bull’s response pushed it back up to $35k, only to be rejected back down into $30k this weekend. The Bitcoin news cycle is mostly neutral, with many recycled articles containing already known information.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

We start today with the weekly chart. My previous concerns about the imperfection on the TD 9 candle 2 weeks ago continue to play out as we are now on a red TD 2 candle which could lead to another 7 weeks of downside from here.  In addition, we now have a new resistance level printed at $35,832 that will be difficult for bulls to push through, given this is a weekly scale chart and longer time frames carry heavier weight. In addition, Squeeze momentum is still making lower lows, keeping upside limited and it just flashed a squeeze release signal. This is a warning that volatility is about to increase and most likely to the downside. There are some positive aspects to be noted.  Last week closed with a bullish hammer candle that made a new lower low at $28,600 and touched the 50 week moving average. It is still possible that we hold the lows and simply continue moving sideways. A close below $28.6k will require us to consider lower prices.  On the positive side, Stochastic RSI remains bottomed, MACD has turned around and the CMF still shows slightly more dollars entering BTC than leaving.  iFish (Inverse Fisher Transform) has reached a bottom and is on the verge of turning positive so we could get a buy signal for a relief rally this week. The bottom line is that we are in a bearish stance.  A breakdown from this last low will lead down into the lower $20k’s area and it is the ultimate buy the dip zone.  If we can hold this $30k area for another 4 weeks into July 26 timing, then we can begin considering a more bullish scenario from that point on.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

After last week’s Crypto Market Update, price moved as expected to test the support levels mentioned at $28,895 and $28,794.  This was very close to where we finally found a bottom at $28,600.  The response from the bulls has not been very strong. Even though we printed reversal and confirmation reversal candles, today’s candle is already showing some signs of weakness as we approach the top of the $30k-35k chop zone. CMF still shows dollars flowing into Bitcoin at this daily scale but most indicators are not giving much direction here.  Squeeze momentum continues to make lower lows in this time frame too so upside is limited and bias remains to downside until we can make a higher high.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

Shorter term traders who are following our signals from the 4-hour chart updates enjoyed a good trade last week.  Our $29.1k buy level was hit and quickly followed by a rally into $35k as shown by the last two white check marks totalling a 20% gain in a couple of days.  We start with a look at today’s 4-hour chart by noting that we are currently flashing an iFish sell signal and the current candle has already flipped to a red TD 1.  We will now look at lower buy levels marked by green arrows below at $30.1k, $27.3k and $24.6k with sell targets above at $36.5k, $38.6k and $42.4k.  Traders should scale into the buy levels as we move lower and scale out as we hit the higher targets. The bearishness and resistances seen in higher time frames are telling us to lower our expectations for now, so the highest price targets remain low probability events.

Trade Idea: Buy $27,300 and 24,600 for shorter-term upside to the $36,500 and $38,600 areas. 

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4-hour linear chart

After last week’s update, we hit our 0.00635 and 0.0059 buy levels along with iFish buy signals. We have continued to chop around inside the blue ocean buy zone and have been unable to move out of it. Unfortunately for the bulls, this 4 hour chart has now shifted into a “No Trend” stance which is usually the first step before things flip into a bearish stance.  Short term traders should exit positions at break even or slightly higher if we can get a relief rally from here.  Upper targets are currently at 0.0068 and 0.0071. Bitcoin dominance continues to rise so we need to prepare ourselves for further altcoin weakness during the Summer and use lower prices to accumulate for the next bullish phase.

Shorter term trade idea: Sell current trading positions into the 0.0068 and 0.0071 areas and preserve capital for better opportunities later.

XMR/USDT

TradingView Binance XMR/USDT 4-hour linear chart

The XMR/USDT pair is also showing weakness along with the BTC pair and iFish is flashing a sell signal here. Our buy level at $200 from last week was hit but we never made it into our upper targets near $250. Therefore we should reduce our expectations and sell around $215 right now or just above near $220. New buy levels are currently at $177, $147 and $117 but we recommend patience over the next 4 weeks while we wait for Bitcoin to make a decision.

Shorter term trade idea: Sell current trading positions in profit at $215 and $220 and preserve capital for better buying opportunities later.

Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook

DERO/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart

DERO/BTC has been behaving as expected since last week’s TCV Featured Crypto Asset Report. All indicators have started cooling off and Squeeze momentum has turned bearish below zero line. MACD is decelerating and CMF shows BTC continues to flow out of the DERO/BTC pair,  so we recommend patience to load up at the lower price levels until the sellers are finished taking their profits. The 50 day moving average is back down at 0.00014 now, so there is plenty of room to the downside.  The bottom of the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) green box is at 0.000164 and the rest of the daily moving averages are below that.

Trade idea: Start accumulating near 0.000164. Scale in further at 0.00014 and 0.0001 

Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook

DERO/USD

Cointrader DERO/USD daily linear chart

The DERO/USD pair looks stronger than the BTC pair but it is already hitting resistance above.  Fisher transform remains overheated telling us there is only a 4% chance of higher prices from here while the rest of the indicators have plenty of room below to continue cooling off.  The green box OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) sits below between $3.30 and $5.70 and this is where we should start buying more DERO once price gets into those lower levels. This will take time, patience and discipline.

Trade idea: Start accumulating at $5.70 and scale in further as we get closer to $3.30.

Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ARRR/BTC

Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily  linear chart

After last week’s KuCoin listing, ARRR pumped for a couple of days but was quickly rejected by the 50 day moving average and the newly extended top of the triangle.  The ARRR/BTC pair will continue to suffer with Bitcoin dominance rising and the 50 day moving average that is now moving downwards above the price.  CMF shows capital continues to flow out of ARRR so there is no need to FOMO in while sellers continue taking profits. This massive triangle will eventually break to the downside and likely into the 200 day moving average below at 0.000051 where we should definitely buy more for the long term.

Trade idea: Accumulate more ARRR at 0.000051 and below.

Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ARRR/USD

Cointrader ARRR/USD daily linear chart

Like the BTC pair, the ARRR/USD pumped from KuCoin news only to be quickly rejected back to the downside and it has now lost support of the 128 day moving average. We are back to the bottom of the massive triangle and probably going to break down and hit support at the 200 day moving average before this bearish phase is done.  CMF shows dollars continue to flow out of ARRR so there is no need to rush into positions at all. Dollar cost averaging here or as close to the 200 day moving average is the best strategy at this time.

Trade idea: Accumulate more ARRR at $2.20 or lower.

Summary

The market is in chop mode as traders step away from their desks and into the record breaking temperatures of this summer which has just started. Patience remains the name of the game for the next 4 weeks while we wait for the bulls and the bears to fight it out.  Hopefully we will have a decision point made by late July that provides us with a clearer picture of the timing of the next bull run.  If the Bitcoin bulls hold $30,000 for the next 4 weeks then we can expect the bull market to return in the early fall.  If bulls lose the battle and we visit $20,000, we will get bargain bitcoin prices but the cost will be an extra 2-3 months of recovery time before the next bull run.

Good Luck, Good Trading!