Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
June 16 – 2023
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The summer doldrums have fully taken hold of the crypto markets over the past several weeks as the technicals have deteriorated and the regulatory environment has gotten much worse following the SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase. Even the good news yesterday that investment giant BlackRock will be filing for a Bitcoin ETF (Trust) could not pull the market out of the funk that it has been in for a while now. Additionally, a strong stock market and very weak DXY have not been able to snap the losing streak for crypto either, all of which suggests that the bears are still in control for now. Having said that, timing-wise and price-wise we are very close to our upper buy zones so our forecast is for sunnier skies once July rolls around.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the daily chart for a view of the short to medium-term technicals where we can see that the falling wedge we have mentioned over the past few weeks appears to have morphed into a descending channel as price has moved lower on red SCMR signals and a red TD count (7), which is certainly not great news for the bulls heading into the weekend. The bearish 50/100 SMA cross, active SCMR resistance dots overhead, and still lackluster momentum and volume indications also point to more choppy to slightly weaker conditions over the next several days, however next week we are in the 60-day cycle timing window to buy therefore we will be active on dips if given the opportunity.
Medium-term Trade Idea: Buy levels at $24.7k, $23.9k, and $22k for medium-term sell targets at $27.5k, $33k, and $37k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next up is the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term setup going into the latter half of June where we can see that price remains in an intermediate-term downtrend on a red TD 6 count and bearish shorter-term market structure while the 100 SMA continues to fall and the momentum and volume indications continue to deteriorate, all fairly bad news for the bulls near-term. Price is also below the 200 SMA once again which puts the bears in control for now, therefore we’ll wait for dips into next week in order to add to current positions.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $25k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to find support around the key psychological 0.0050 level resulting in multiple bullish wicks and a hold of longer-term market structure while the momentum and volume indications appear to be close to bottoming out, all of which suggests that we are close to a sustainable medium-term low as forecasted over the past several weeks. Having said that, the TD count remains bearish (3), SCMR signals are still red, short to medium-term market structure remains bearish, and all of the relevant moving averages are still falling, therefore we’ll save some dry powder for the low-0.0040’s in case we get one more washout before liftoff.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.0050 for a medium-term target of 0.0105 and a longer-term target of 0.0200.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD remains firmly within its descending channel and below all of the moving averages on red SCMR signals with active resistance dots overhead while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, none of which is good news for the bulls over the shorter-term. That said, we’re on a weekly TD 9 buy signal while the volume indications continue to point to massive accumulation at these levels, therefore we’ll stay ready to buy dips into support between $115 – $130 over the next few weeks if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $130 with a medium-term target of $200 and a longer-term target of $2000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
It’s been a rough week for ETH/BTC as prices have come back down into the mid-0.060s on a red weekly SCMR signal, bearish candle formation, and newly flipped bearish TD count (1) while price remains below the shorter-term moving averages on bearish medium-term market structure, therefore the bulls have their work cut out for them over the next few weeks. The lackluster momentum indications also suggest that choppy and weak conditions are likely to persist over the shorter-term, however multiple areas of strong support provide clear buying opportunities going forward while the Altcoin Season Index continues to indicate that altcoins remain undervalued here.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.060 for medium-term upside to the 0.080 region and longer-term upside to 0.100.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
ETH/USD remains relatively weak for the time being with price falling below $1700 this week on a red SCMR signal and bearish TD 2 count while shorter-term market structure remains broken and the 100 SMA is still falling overhead, all of which points to more of the same over the coming few weeks. Having said that, price is getting very close to strong historical and technical support in the $1550 area, which is where the rising 50 and 100 SMAs reside, while the volume indications continue to suggest strong accumulation at these levels, therefore we’ll stay ready to buy more dips into support in the $1550 and $1350 zones.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1600 for medium-term upside to the $2300 area and longer-term upside to $10k.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to be under pressure to the downside breaking below the key 0.00020 level this week on a red SCMR signal and bearish candle formation while the TD count remains red (8), all of which suggests more downside before a sustainable bottom is established. Price is also below the 50 and 100 SMAs on bearish short-term market structure and still recharging momentum, also pointing to additional weakness over the next week or so, however the TD count is close to bottoming on a 9 next week and strong support in the form of the 200 SMA and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level sit between 0.00016 and 0.00018, so that is where we will be bidding next if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate between 0.00016 – 0.00018 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00025 area and longer-term upside to the 0.0010 level.
DERO/USD
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has broken below the $5 level this week on another red SCMR signal and bearish candle formation that has also broken below the 200 SMA while the TD count remains red for now, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The discouraging momentum and volume indications and the now falling 100 SMA overhead also point to a bearish bias over the shorter-term, however very strong historical and technical support between $4.20 – $4.80 have us wanting to accumulate in that zone until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate between $4.20 – $4.80 for medium-term upside to around $15 and longer-term upside to the $100 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!