Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(April 3rd – 2023)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a sleepy early spring Monday bereft of tradfi or crypto news it comes as no surprise that the markets are still chopping around the $28k level that has been equilibrium for the past few weeks. While this could continue over the shorter-term, we expect a return of volatility in the near future as we move into the mid-cycle low that Mr. A discussed at length in yesterday’s CMU video (April 2nd, 2023). Having said that, we view this potential pullback as an opportunity to get long or add to positions if given the chance as the likelihood of higher prices over the coming months remains quite high from a technical perspective.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll begin by looking at the daily chart for a view of the short to medium-term technical setup where we can see that price continues to struggle around the $28k level with a possible double top forming as the TD count turns red, SCMR signals are no longer green, and the current candle formation leaves something to be desired, all of which supports a dip over the next several days to few weeks. Discouraging momentum oscillators, a red MACD, and a weakening OBV reading also support a short-term dip into the $25k’s, which is where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the rising 50 SMA will converge over the next week or so, a level that we want to be buyers of if given the opportunity.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $25.5k for medium-term upside to $32k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also look at the weekly chart to see where the longer-term technicals stand and for the time being the bottom of the supply area continues to be a trouble spot for the bulls with multiple dojis forming during the middle of the TD count while the moving averages remain highly mixed, none of which comes as a surprise given our recent forecasts. The momentum oscillators are also a bit concerning from a shorter-term point of view, hence our slight bearishness over the next week or two, however favorable volume indications, green SCMR signals, and a rising 200 SMA all suggest that dips are for buying and that much higher prices are likely over the next three to four months.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $26k for longer-term targets in the $100k range.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is trying to carve out a double bottom on the higher timeframe charts right now which could send price into the high-0.0060’s before the bears return to the party, however we do think that one more leg to the downside to new lows is likely given that the TD count is only on a 5 and SCMR signals remain firmly red. Additionally, all of the weekly moving averages are now heading lower, there is active TD and SCMR resistance overhead, and the momentum and volume indications are turning more bearish, therefore we’ll continue to wait for the 0.0050 area before adding to positions once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.0050 for a medium-term target of 0.0105 and a longer-term target of 0.0200.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still consolidating between $150 – $160 on a hodgepodge of candle formations, mixed SCMR signals, an unhelpful TD count, and mediocre momentum and volume indications, so the path of least resistance from a technical perspective continues to be sideways for the time being. Having said that, dips down into the bottom of the range around $150 are a buy going forward, and corrections down to or below $140 are for backing the truck up for the long-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $150 with a medium-term target of $200 and a longer-term target of $2000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to chop around the 0.065 level on red SCMR signals and mostly bearish candle formations while the 50 SMA gets ready to cross below the 200 SMA for a potential short-term death cross, all while active TD and SCMR resistance continue to build overhead, bad news for the bulls moving forward. The still discouraging momentum and volume indications aren’t helping matters either, however we still like anything close to the 0.060 for short and long-term buys so we’ll stay patient for those levels for now.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.060 for medium-term upside to the 0.080 region and longer-term upside to 0.100.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is looking similar to BTC/USD in that a bearish double top pattern is developing near the local and regional highs while SCMR signals turn more worrisome and the TD count gets stretched once again, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the shorter-term. The fact that momentum needs to recharge while the volume indications remain lackluster is also a sign that the market could use a breather soon, so we’ll stay neutral and patient for lower levels at least until the mid-$1600’s at the earliest.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $1660 for medium-term upside to the $2000 area and longer-term upside to $10k.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC weekly linear chart
DERO/BTC still looks great from a longer-term technical perspective considering that the TD count is only on a green 3, SCMR signals remain bright green, candle formations are supportive of more upside, and market structure is now confirmed bullish, so we’re expecting much higher prices over the coming months. Having said that, we are coming into a TD 4 and 5 which typically indicates some countertrend volatility is approaching, and the daily chart (not shown) has some quite bearish short-term indications that cannot be ignored, so we’ll move into buy the dip mode with the first targets being in the mid-0.00020’s.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below 0.00025 for medium-term upside back to 0.00035 and longer-term upside to the 0.00100 area.
DERO/USD
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT weekly linear chart
DERO/USDT continues to struggle around the flatlining 100 SMA on a TD 5 count while TD resistance actively builds overhead and the momentum indications are troubling shorter-term, all indicating that a dip to test support is increasingly likely over the coming days and weeks. On the other hand, SCMR signals remain bright green, market structure is now bullish, and the volume indications continue to improve, so significant upside is likely over the longer-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $7 for intermediate-term upside to the $12 area. Longer-term target remains around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!