Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Unfortunately for the BTC bulls the long awaited correction is here, sparked by a failed rally near $42k over the weekend in conjunction with a bearish tweet from Scott Minerd (CIO of Guggenheim Partners, who have a $400,000 long-term price target on bitcoin) saying that he was taking some chips off the table. It also didn’t help that The Economist published a bullish piece about bitcoin on Sunday, typically a reliable sign of a local top in the legacy markets, and the clearly overbought technicals that had been in place for a while made it easy for the bears to justify selling. Now we’ll look for reasonable downside targets to add to positions for the next leg of this bull market.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 6-hour chart to start the week where we can see that the recent selloff has accelerated quickly, which is what we want to see in a bull market correction, on mostly bearish candle formations that have turned near-term market structure bearish and heavy, not great signs for the bulls moving forward. The break of the 50 SMA, the deteriorating volume indications, and the recharging momentum oscillators also suggest more trouble ahead for the bulls, therefore our base case is a continuation down into the mid to high $20k’s before a sustainable bottom is found. That said, we might be finding a bottom already given the rising 100 SMA just below the market and the OTE long zone where price was rejected, so it’s probably best to stay neutral at these uncertain levels.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that price has moved significantly lower over the past 24 hours thus sparking a large bearish candle formation that has turned market structure quite heavy for the time being while sell volumes become worrisome and the momentum oscillators begin to head lower, all pointing to a bearish bias at least over the near-term. A break of the upper trendline would confirm this view, and would likely lead to a selloff into the mid to high $20k’s as previously mentioned, however if the bulls are able to defend that line over the course of this week then we’ll likely see the bull market resume in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $30,000 for upside to the $42,000 area.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
We’re glad we were bullish on XMR/BTC below 0.0040 because those prices didn’t last long given a nice rally off of the lows early yesterday which has been followed up by resilient price action today, thus both recent daily candles are quite bullish and the momentum and volume indications are finally improving. The lack of major resistance until the 0.0060 area is also good news for the bulls, so our bias will remain to the upside for now, although there is a long way to go before talking about a new bull market especially with the falling moving averages all residing below the previous regional high (which needs to be broken to confirm a shift back to bullish market structure).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
It didn’t take long for our call for a rally over $170 to materialize given price went all the way up to the $190 level only a day after our last update, although the whole move has now been retraced due to the weakness in BTC so we’ll likely need to wait for a BTC bottom before talking realistically about the key $200 level. That said, we do think the bull market continues in the not too distant future considering that market structure remains intact, the moving averages are still rising, and the volume indications remain favorable overall.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $140 for longer-term upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
We want to follow-up on BSV today given the insane moves over the past several days, and we can see that the downtrend line indeed rejected the rally back to the downside thus sparking a very bearish candle formation that led to more selling yesterday which has pushed the A/D line down to new lows, not good news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the moving averages are still declining while the momentum oscillators are no longer overbought is also bad news for the bulls, however if they can put in a higher low above 0.004124 this week then we’ll start to get a bit more bullish moving forward (although we still need to see a close above the trendline to becoming truly bullish longer-term).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0050 for longer-term upside to 0.010.
BSV/USD
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT has moved back below the $200 level over the past few days following a very bearish candle formation on Saturday which has turned market structure back to neutral while the A/D line falls off a cliff, which does not bode well for the bulls moving forward. The lackluster momentum oscillators and mixed moving averages also are not great signs overall, although said MA’s are providing some support today thus sparking a fairly bullish candle formation so we don’t expect much downside at this time either (implying that sideways consolidation appears likely over the near-term).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $160 for longer-term upside to $350.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
While ETH/BTC is hanging on to the 0.030 level for the time being, price action remains a mess as does market structure, and the moving averages are still very mixed despite providing some support around current levels, all suggesting nasty, choppy action between 0.026 – 0.034 for the foreseeable future. The slowly deteriorating A/D line and the heavy momentum oscillators also suggest directionless price action moving forward, although we remain bullish longer-term so we’ll continue to buy dips into support when given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.028 for longer-term upside to 0.040.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
We’ll wrap up with a look at the ETH/USD daily chart where we can see that price has fallen back below the key $1000 mark today on a very large bearish candle formation that has broken near-term market structure while the volume indications begin to deteriorate, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the momentum oscillators are starting to fall as well with plenty of room to run lower is also not great for the bulls over the near-term, however the $700 – $850 area looks very attractive to add to longs due to the upper demand area and OTE long zone so we would be buyers in that region if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $850 for upside to $1250.
Good Luck, Good Trading!