Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It didn’t take long for the bitcoin markets to reach our $40k target, less than 24 hours in fact, as the supply and demand imbalance continues unabated which is manifesting as a supply-side liquidity crisis on exchanges. The continued exodus of coins from said exchanges is also adding fuel to the fire, a trend which we don’t see reversing any time soon, therefore we think that it’s still a fool’s errand to try to fight the trend hence we’re expecting at least a bit more upside before a top materializes.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll zoom into the 6-hour chart today for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price moved quickly up to the $40,000 level earlier today but was smacked to the downside by profit takers just above that level, which came as no surprise given our forecast from yesterday. That said, the swift rebound off of the $36,388 lows, the rising moving averages, and the very favorable volume indications all suggest that this was yet another small blip before more upside over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll return to the daily chart for some additional Fibonacci extension targets since it looks like price wants to continue higher before a correction, and we can see that the 238.2% level is around $42,500 and the 250% level resides just above $44k which both seem like reasonable targets over the upcoming weekend. The still rising moving averages and encouraging volume indications also suggest higher targets above $40k, however momentum is very overbought and price is going parabolic so we’ll need to pay the piper in the not too distant future (meaning leveraged trading is not the best idea right now).
Trade Idea: Hold current positions for upside to $42,500.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to the XMR/BTC weekly chart for a view of the longer-term setup where we can see that price continues to drop into the demand area on bearish candle formations and broken market structure while the moving averages pick up steam to the downside, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The tick lower in the A/D line and the still falling momentum oscillators confirm that the path of least resistance remains lower so we need to stay on the sidelines until signs of a reversal emerge.
Trade Idea: Hold positions for longer-term upside to 0.0100.
XMR/USD
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also zoom out to the weekly chart of XMR/USD where we can see that price is still consolidating above the new upper demand area on mixed candle formations and still pretty overbought momentum oscillators, so we’re not expecting much in the way of upside over the near-term. Having said that, the rising moving averages, steady volume indications, and favorable state of market structure all suggest that the bulls are still in control longer-term so we expect a resolution higher once this consolidation has run its course (hence we’re raising our target back to $200).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $130 for upside to $200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
BSV/BTC
TradingView OKex BSV/BTC weekly linear chart
No doubt that the past few weeks have been rough for the BSV/BTC bulls as price has been consistently falling down to new all-time lows on bearish candle formations and broken longer-term market structure while the moving averages accelerate to the downside, so it looks like more pain is in store over the near-term. The volume indications also suggest a continued bearish bias moving forward, therefore we’ll stay on the sidelines until further notice.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
BSV/USD
TradingView OKex BSV/USDT weekly linear chart
BSV/USD continues to do what it has been doing for the past four months, and that is consolidating between the slowly rising 50 and 100 SMA’s as expected on very mixed candle formations and highly uncertain longer-term market structure therefore we’re expecting more of the same moving forward. The supply and demand areas surrounding the market also point to more sideways action below $200, although a quick spike up to that $200 area would not surprise us given the improving momentum and volume indications.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $150 for upside to $200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ETH/BTC
TradingView Bittrex ETH/BTC weekly linear chart
Finally, we’ll take one more look at ETH this week where we can see on the BTC pair that price has been moving swiftly out of the OTE long zone (between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) on nice volumes and favorable momentum oscillators, good news for the bulls to be sure. The move back above the shorter-term moving averages is also positive for the bulls moving forward, however the current weekly candle formation is quite bearish and market structure remains highly uncertain so we expect more turbulence below 0.035 before the bulls truly get going.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.028 for longer-term upside to 0.040.
ETH/USD
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD weekly linear chart
With ETH/BTC performing relatively well compared to most altcoins, ETH/USD has skyrocketed to the upside on the back of BTC/USD strength sending price close to all-time highs on some very bullish candle formations that have confirmed a shift to longer-term bullish market structure, all good news for the bulls for the year 2021. The rising moving averages and very encouraging volume indications are also pointing to a generally bullish bias overall this year, however price is in a key resistance area and the momentum oscillators are officially overbought so some downside volatility is to be expected before new ATHs materialize.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $1000 for upside to $1400.
Good Luck, Good Trading!