Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Jan 10 – 2022)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With US equities cratering, bond yields rising, and the dollar index higher it comes as no surprise that BTC hit new regional lows below $40k earlier today. While this move was relatively short-lived and we’ve since seen a bounce back to $41k, continued fears over Fed policy and its effect on the US and global economies is keeping us thinking that the path of least resistance is still generally to the downside until further notice. That said, daily and weekly TD 9’s are keeping us very watchful for a sustainable reversal so not all hope is lost just yet for a recovery from this mini-bear market.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price made new regional lows this morning on a red SCMR signal that broke medium-term market structure while heavy SCMR resistance dots continue to build overhead, all pretty bad news for the bulls moving forward. The TD count isn’t much help for the bulls either considering we’re only just now on a red 2, so we need to stay cautious over the near-term, however we’re entertaining the idea of a local bottom at $39,558 due to improving volume indications and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators that would target resistance at the $43k area as the first target to sell on a bounce.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the washout this morning and while we have an incoming TD 9 buy signal at the daily close today the rest of the technicals still don’t look great considering that SCMR signals remain red, new SCMR resistance dots are building overhead at $42.2k, the volume indications remain under pressure, and the 50/200 death cross is imminent sometime this week. All of this suggests further downside following a countertrend bounce to the $42k – $43k region, likely to retest the $39,558 lows or to find stronger support in the $37k region before an even larger move up.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $40k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is still treading water above the 100 SMA and the OTE long zone to start this week but looks poised to move lower over the coming days due to a red SCMR signal today on a bearish candle formation while new SCMR resistance begins to form at 0.004684, so we’ll continue to wait for lower prices before getting active on the long side again. The lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest more downside on choppy price action over the near-term, although support confluences in the low-0.0040’s are keeping us interested in nibbling in that region so we’ll stick to the plan for now.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0042 for longer-term upside to around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is desperately trying to stay above the still rising 100 SMA this week despite a small but bearish candle formation, red SCMR signal, and increasingly heavy market structure, so we’re not sure how much longer the bulls can keep price here. Active SCMR resistance dots overhead and a still bearish TD count (2) are also signs that a breakdown is becoming more probable in the not too distant future, a move that would likely take us down to the $140 – $150 area where more substantial support resides.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC 3-day linear chart
DERO/BTC is treading water today near its regional lows on another bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal that is keeping short to medium-term market structure broken and heavy, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward this week. The fact that the 50 SMA has rolled over while the momentum and volume indications remain lackluster is also bad news for the bulls, therefore we’ll stay patient for stronger support around the 0.00015 region before trying to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00016 level with a longer-term target of 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT 3-day linear chart
DERO/USDT has moved down to new regional lows below $10 over the past several days on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, broken market structure, and a still bearish TD count, therefore the path of least resistance remains to the downside for now. The momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bears are still in control overall, however support in the $6 – $7 area remains quite attractive for now so we’ll stick with the plan of accumulating around those levels.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $7 level with longer-term upside to around $120.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
While XEQ/BTC has been doing a whole lot of nothing over the past several weeks this action has actually been healthy for the market considering what has been taking place in crypto as a whole, which is keeping us rather bullish on this asset over the medium to long-term. We also like that momentum is recharged and sellers have been few and far between recently, hence we still want to be accumulating around the green star over the coming days and weeks when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00000500 level with a longer-term target around 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD continues to slowly bleed to the downside on mostly bearish candle formations thus keeping market structure bearish while the 50 SMA remains under pressure to the downside, therefore we want to stay very cautious over the shorter-term. The momentum and volume indications don’t instill much faith in the bulls either over the near-term, hence we want to wait for a possible washout below $0.20 before trying to add to current long positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.20 for longer-term upside to the $2.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!