Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 28 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With only days left until the end of 2021 investors continue to sell BTC and other digital assets into strength thus keeping the ~$45k – $52k trading range intact that has been in play since the beginning of the month. While this action remains generally in line with our forecasts over the past few weeks, the fact that we didn’t see more upside recently tells us that the bulls are likely in hibernation at least until the new year. For this reason, we’re leaning slightly bearish for the remainder of the week, but with action still confined to the medium-term trading range overall.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this holiday-shortened week with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that a failed breakout above the still falling 200 SMA yesterday led to the selloff that we’re seeing today that has sparked red SCMR signals on bearish candle formations and a now bearish TD count (6), therefore the bears are now back in control. The still falling momentum oscillators and deteriorating volume indications also point to a slight bearish bias moving forward, although support in the $46k area is quite strong due to the OTE long zone, TD support line, top of the medium-term demand area, and bottom of the medium-term trading range, therefore we expect the bleeding to stop in this region sometime this week.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see if there has been any technical damage to the medium-term outlook, and despite a nasty looking candle formation today on a red SCMR signal and red TD 2 count we don’t yet see anything that suggests an imminent breakdown out of the aforementioned ~$45 – $52k trading range. The fact that price is still above the broken downtrend line and the 200 SMA is also decent news for the bulls from a slightly longer-term perspective, although the momentum and volume indications look quite bad for now so the shorter-term bias is certainly to the downside until further notice.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $46k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC is starting to look a bit better than it has in a while due to a decent rally off of the lows over the past several days thus sparking a blue SCMR reversal signal last week that is being followed up by a neutral signal that is helping to stabilize shorter-term market structure while the possibility of a large double bottom increases, all of which are good signs for the bulls longer-term. That said, the resistance between 0.0050 – 0.0055 is very strong and the volume indications leave much to be desired for now so we think it will take a bit more time and consolidation before a sustainable breakout and rally above that key region materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0040 for longer-term upside to around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD spiked all the way up into the $230’s yesterday on a green SCMR signal, improving market structure, and favorable momentum and volume indications, although it looks like the rally has already come to an end considering we’re getting a TD 9 sell signal today following a very bearish candle formation yesterday so we’re expecting more downside over the coming days. The bearish SCMR pivot bar today, and the deterioration of momentum and volume in the last few hours, also point to a bearish near-term bias, likely back down to test support in the ~$190 – $200 area which we would nibble on if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $200 level for shorter-term upside to the $240 area. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to look fairly heavy overall considering the series of bearish SCMR pivot bars recently and deteriorating market structure while the TD counts remain mixed and momentum begins to recharge, all suggesting more sluggish price action into the new year. The slowly ascending channel that we’ve drawn recently is also pointing to some downside moving forward given that price is still near the top of the range, hence our new buy areas are 0.072 and 0.065, which are where key support confluences are developing that will still create longer-term higher lows thus keeping the broader bull market intact next year (hence we want to buy).
Trade Idea: Accumulate around the 0.065 and 0.072 levels with a shorter-term target of 0.082 and a longer-term target of 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is back down around the $3800 level today on a firmly bearish candle formation, red SCMR signal, red TD 2 count, and still bearish shorter-term market structure, therefore we think the bias is to the downside heading into the new year. The falling 50 SMA overhead, the break of the 100 SMA today, and the slowly deteriorating momentum and volume indications support the bearish near-term outlook, although we still like the support confluence in the $3400 region which is where we’ll begin to accumulate again for longer-term upside next year.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $3400 level with longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC 3-day linear chart
While BSV/BTC has been slowly grinding lower over the past few weeks following the CSW verdict at the beginning of the month, price has managed to stay above the upper wedge trendline and appears to be finding shorter-term support at the top of the upper demand area despite a still bearish TD count, so the bulls still have something to work with for now. The steady momentum and volume indications also aren’t terrible signs for the bulls heading into the new year, however all of the moving averages continue to fall, market structure remains bearish, and there is a ton of active TD and SCMR resistance overhead so we’re not expecting a sustainable rally until the cycle lows hold for at least a few weeks and is followed by a breakout above 0.003446 (the previous regional high).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0023 with a target around 0.0034.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT 2-day linear chart
BSV/USDT is still doing a whole lot of nothing to close out 2021 due to still small and mixed candle formations, mixed SCMR signals, an unhelpful TD count, and highly uncertain market structure, therefore we’re expecting more of the same as 2022 begins. The stagnant momentum and volume indications support this view, as do the falling moving averages overhead and the longer-term demand area below the market, so choppy sideways action between ~$100 – $150 appears likely until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $110 level for upside to the $150 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!