Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 21 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Choppy consolidation remains the name of the game as this holiday week progresses which comes as no surprise given practically nonexistent newsflow, still uncertain technicals, and deteriorating market conditions (liquidity & volume), all of which should also help to keep the market from straying too far outside of ~$45k – $50k trading range that has established itself over the past two weeks. That being said, the move higher recently has broken some shorter-term resistance levels and is giving the longer-term charts a small boost as well so perhaps a test of the top of the range is in order before falling back into the mid to high-$40k’s heading into the new year.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Today we’ll start off by taking a look at the daily chart where we can see that price is attempting to breakout above the falling wedge that we discussed on Sunday on the first neutral SCMR signal since December 2nd while price remains inside of the medium-term OTE long zone, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is back above the 200 SMA is also positive for the bulls, as are the improving momentum and volume indications, although resistance in the $50k – $51k area in the form of the medium-term downtrend line, SCMR resistance dots, and the top of the OTE is likely to keep price generally below there until after the Christmas holiday next weekend.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also have a look at the weekly chart today for a view of the longer-term setup where we can see that price is still below 50 SMA on a TD 6 count and still recharging momentum oscillators, all of which will help keep the bulls at bay over the shorter-term. Having said that, a blue SCMR reversal signal is developing on an improving candle formation while the volume indications remain firmly positive for the bulls, so while we still think that there is more consolidation ahead we also continue to push back against the idea of a deep and prolonged bear market in 2022.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $45k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
While XMR/BTC has yet to break down to new local, regional, or cycle lows this week, the technicals continue to suggest that the odds favor this outcome moving forward due to still bearish candle formations (particularly this week), red SCMR signals, a bearish TD count (7), and atrocious market structure. The falling moving averages, active SCMR resistance dots, and very discouraging volume indications also point to more trouble ahead for the bulls, at least over the short t0 medium-term, therefore we’re staying far away from this one until further notice.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is still below the $200 level this week on another bearish candle formation, a red SCMR signal, a red TD 6, and increasingly bearish market structure, so we’re sticking with our call for another leg lower into the $155 area before the bulls return in earnest, and the reversing 50 SMA and still active SCMR resistance dots overhead confirm this view. That said, we continue to think that we’re nearing an area where the bulls will truly get active again so we’ll remain buyers in case a selloff materializes over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $155 level for shorter-term upside to the $200 area. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC 3-day linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out to a 3-day chart of DERO/BTC where we can see that price is still treading water around the rising 100 SMA on mixed candle formations, red SCMR signals, bearish shorter-term market structure, and deteriorating volume indications, therefore we still want to be cautious moving forward. That said, a TD 9 bottom signal last week, a bullishly divergent MACD, and an improving RSI all suggest that a sustainable reversal is likely somewhere in the OTE long zone so we’re encouraged overall heading into the new year.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00015 with a shorter-term target of 0.00030 and a longer-term target of 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT 3-day linear chart
DERO/USDT continues to look quite bearish from a technical point of view considering that price is below the 100 SMA on red SCMR signals and bearish medium-term market structure, while the 50 SMA reverses and SCMR resistance dots remain active, so we’ll stay on the sidelines for the time being. The momentum and volume indications still don’t look all that great either, however the bulls are defending the top of the upper demand area while a TD 9 bottom signal remains in play from last week so we think we’re getting close to a sustainable low even if one more leg down materializes first.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $8 level with longer-term upside to around $120.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC has continued to move to the downside over the past several days as expected on bearish candle formations and increasingly bearish market structure while the 50 SMA continues to fall and the OBV reading takes a slight hit, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. Having said that, we still like the 0.00000500 area and below for longer-term accumulation due to the rising 200 SMA, the upper demand area, and a key support line while RSI gets close to recharged and MACD shows a bullish divergence so we’re sticking to the plan re: the trade idea over the holiday weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000500 with a longer-term target around 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD 3-day linear chart
XEQ/USD is still bleeding to the downside early this week on small but bearish red candles and firmly bearish medium-term market structure while the 50 SMA falls and OBV slowly moves down, all bad news for the bulls over the coming days. Conversely, an almost recharged RSI and a bullishly divergent MACD should help the bulls defend the support confluence in the $0.25 area that consists of the 200 SMA, bottom of the OTE long zone, and sweet spot of the upper demand area so we’re still willing to get active below there if given the opportunity over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $0.25 level for longer-term upside to the $2.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!