Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 17 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we head into the final weekend before the holidays it comes as no surprise that bitcoin and most other major crypto assets are still treading water inside ranges that have been intact for more than two weeks now given our forecasts since the dump on December 4th. A lack of relevant newsflow, highly uncertain technicals, and massive derivatives positions heading into the new year will also help to keep conditions as they have been recently, therefore we’ll stay neutral and on the sidelines over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 4-hour chart today for another look at the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price wicked into the OTE long zone earlier today but was quickly rejected back to the upside, and now we have a TD 9 bottom signal on recharged and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators, so we still think that downside is limited to the $44k – $45k area moving forward. Having said that, the red SCMR signals, falling moving averages, discouraging volume indications, and still bearish short-term market structure setup all suggest that upside is very limited as well, likely to the $48k area over the weekend, hence more rangy chop between these zones appears likely heading into a holiday-shortened week next week.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand to end this final full work week of the year, and for now nothing much has changed since a few days ago considering that price is still consolidating inside of the OTE long zone and around the 200 SMA on mixed candle formations and a highly uncertain TD count, all of which is supportive of the idea of more sideways action with a very slight bearish bias moving forward. Having said that, given the lackluster volume indications, a loss of the active momentum divergences likely leads to a retest of the $42k lows therefore we want to stay quite cautious from a trading perspective while liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate into the heart of the holiday season.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $45k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC still has yet to budge from the 0.0040 region over the course of this week leading to a very small bearish doji candle formation that signals indecision and likely more sideways action in this area over the coming days, a notion that is supported by the still lackluster momentum and volume indications. That said, we continue to think that a resolution to the downside is more likely than a reversal back into a bull market due to the still red SCMR signals, bearish TD count, falling moving averages, and active SCMR resistance dots therefore we’re staying on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD certainly doesn’t look great technically either considering that price is still below the $200 level on another red SCMR signal and a still bearish TD count while market structure continues to deteriorate and the momentum oscillators continue to recharge. The lackluster volume indications and active bi-monthly SCMR resistance dots overhead also suggest more troubles ahead for the bulls, so we’ll stay patient for the $155 level that we’ve been discussing all week.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $155 level for shorter-term upside to the $200 area. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
For the first time in a very long time the ARRR/BTC bulls are getting active again following a washout down into the 0.00001000’s earlier this week, a positive sign to be sure, a move higher that could be the start of something much more sustainable to the upside moving forward. Having said that, resistance remains stiff overhead, the volume indications are not yet convincing, and market structure remains bearish overall, so the bulls need to push price above 0.00003730 with conviction to reverse structure and create a medium-term higher high. That said, we think that a retest of the lows is likely before a breakout to said highs which should give us an opportunity to add a bit more to longer-term positions near what we think is very close to the bottom.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00002000 with a shorter-term target of 0.00003700 and a longer-term target of 0.00040000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD 3-day linear chart
The months of pain for the ARRR/USDT bulls may soon be coming to an end considering that a breakout above the medium-term downtrend line is close to materializing on a firmly bullish weekly candle formation while RSI moves out of oversold territory and OBV tries to stabilize. Also, note the still intact medium-term MACD divergence and the fact that the still rising 200 SMA is close to being broken overhead as well, so there are certainly some green shoots for the bulls for the first time since Spring, however price must move convincingly above the $1.50 level over the next few weeks to avoid another period of bleeding slowly to the downside.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $1.00 level with longer-term upside to around $50.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC has settled into a consolidation range inside of the OTE long zone, at the top of the upper demand area, and around the still rising 50 SMA, also where our green buy star resides, which is good news for the bulls over the near-term. Having said that, we still think there is a risk of one more downside move before a sustainable uptrend develops again so we’ll leave the rest of our dry powder for the next support confluence in the 0.00000500 area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000500 with a longer-term target around 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD 3-day linear chart
XEQ/USD remains under pressure heading into the weekend thus keeping candle formations generally bearish, market structure quite heavy, and the RSI and OBV readings discouraging for the time being, hinting at lower prices before the bulls return in earnest. It also looks like the rising 50 SMA is soon to be broken to the downside, also suggesting a bearish bias for now, although we still like the $0.25 area very much for longer-term accumulation therefore we’ll keep our bids in that region moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $0.25 level for longer-term upside to the $2.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!