Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 14 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite a nice weekly open above $50k yesterday, macro headwinds such as weak US equities, a strong US dollar, as well as continued fears of Omicron and rate hikes, are putting selling pressure back on the crypto markets today as risk comes out of the system for the time being. While this is yet another scary dip that has kept the fear and greed index below 30, BTC is still trading in a consolidation range like we have been expecting for at least a week now (albeit at slightly lower levels than anticipated). Granted, this is not the best start to the fast-approaching holiday season, hence no Santa Claus rally this year, although we also don’t see a holiday massacre either so more choppy sideways action in the $40k’s appears likely until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Let’s begin this mid-December week with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has moved down to the bottom of the trading range that we drew yesterday on the TCV CMU Weekly Close video and is finding some support there, however the bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, active SCMR resistance dots, and red TD count all suggest that the bias is currently still to the downside. The falling moving averages, discouraging volume indications, and not yet fully recharged momentum oscillators also point to lower prices over the near-term, likely down into the OTE long zone between ~$44k – $45.5k, so we’ll stay neutral at least until that zone moving forward.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and for now the bears remain in control as a large bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal has developed today thus keeping market structure broken while new weekly SCMR resistance dots emerge at the daily highs of $50,800, none of which bodes well for the bulls heading into the holidays. The fact that the 100 SMA is very close to joining the 50 SMA in a downtrend is also bad news for the bulls, as is the falling OBV reading, although the other momentum and volume indications don’t look all that bad and price is still inside of the medium-term OTE long zone so we’re not calling for new regional lows this week (just a test of lower levels before bouncing back into the previous range).
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $45k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to tread water just below the 0.0040 level and just above the top of the weekly demand area on mostly small but bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, very discouraging market structure, and a red TD 6 count, all of which suggest that a breakdown is becoming increasingly likely moving forward. The red bi-monthly SCMR resistance dots overhead and awful-looking volume indications also point in this direction moving forward, despite oversold momentum oscillators, so we’ll stay neutral and on the sidelines for the foreseeable future given a breakdown below 0.0039 likely leads to a quick move to the 0.0033 area.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to look bearish from a technical perspective considering that price is back down near the region lows on a firmly bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal while medium-term market structure remains broken and the TD count is still bearish. There is also a new SCMR resistance dot at the $199 highs from last night, hence a move down into the $150s is becoming increasingly likely, however the not-so-bad looking momentum and volume indications suggest that we’re nearing a bottom in the not too distant future so we would be buyers of the $155 level if given the opportunity (at least for a countertrend bounce).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $155 level for shorter-term upside to the $200 area. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC remains under some selling pressure today thus sparking a bearish candle formation, bearish SCMR pivot bar, and a TD 9 sell signal, obviously not great news for the bulls over the shorter-term, and neither is the fact that the momentum oscillators have only just begun to recharge. The lack of near-term support and the flatlining of the volume indicators is also a sign that more downside is likely before a resumption of the bull market, therefore we’ll stay neutral at least until the 0.075 area where buyers should start to step in.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.075 with a longer-term target of 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has been moving to the downside all day today on a firmly bearish candle formation and red SCMR signal that is putting more downward pressure on short-term market structure while the TD count remains red (5), all pointing to lower prices before the bulls get active again. The break of the 100 SMA today, the now falling 50 SMA, the active SCMR resistance dots, and the not yet recharged momentum oscillators also suggest that the bears are in control for now, although the volume indications don’t look too bad and support is strong in the $3300 – $3600 area so that’s where we’ll stay patient for until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $3600 level with longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
As expected, XEQ/BTC spiked down into the OTE long zone, to the 100 SMA, and to the top of the upper demand area today before bouncing fairly strongly thus sparking what is for now a bullish hammer reversal candle, which is fairly decent news for the bulls overall. The fact that we didn’t see any spike in volume or a dump in OBV is also an encouraging sign despite the volatile price action recently, hence we’re still in buy the dip mode even if we get one final leg down to the 200 SMA around 0.00000500.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000500 with a longer-term target around 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has been following BTC to the downside over the past 12+ hours pushing price down to new regional lows and breaking the 100 SMA while the 50 SMA continues to fall overhead, all bad news for the bulls over the near-term. Having said that, OBV still doesn’t look that bad, RSI is almost fully recharged, MACD is showing a medium-term bullish divergence, and support at the rising 200 SMA is strong, therefore we’ll get interested on the long side again below $0.25.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $0.25 level for longer-term upside to the $2.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!