Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 7 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The crypto markets are finally recovering from the massacre last weekend that pushed price down to the $42k area on low liquidity and massive liquidations, which is in line with our forecasts from the past few days, although we’re now approaching the $52k – $54k resistance area that is likely to cause some selling heading into the second half of the week so we want to stay fairly cautious over the near-term. Having said that, there are many green shoots emerging for the bulls on the slightly higher time frame charts so our call for a continuation of the bull market over the next few months remains intact until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start off with a look at the 6-hour chart to see where the short-term technicals stand following the weekend bloodbath and things are certainly looking better for the bulls now than they did last weekend given newly green SCMR signals, new SCMR support dots at $47k and $50k, and improving momentum and volume indications, so there might be a bit more upside to the rally start before we see a local top. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to fall, market structure remains bearish, the downtrend line is still intact, and OTE resistance resides right in our sell zone, so we’re still expecting to see a top there and sub-$50k prices again before a sustainable bull market back above $60k materializes.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart today for a view of the medium-term technicals where we can see that the weekend flash crash took price all the way down below the still rising 200 SMA but was quickly rejected back to the upside thus creating even more support around that level, good news for the bulls moving forward, as is the blue SCMR reversal candle yesterday and the reversal confirmation today, both of which suggest that the bottom is likely in at $42k. The momentum and volume indications are also looking better due to reversals and divergences, although market structure remains broken and the TD count is still bearish so we’re still anticipating a retest of the mid to high-$40k’s before the bulls feel comfortable getting aggressive above $54k.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $50k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 3-day linear chart
XMR/BTC appears to be on the brink of disaster considering that price is hovering just above regional support on red SCMR signals, small but bearish candle formations, a bearish TD count, and falling moving averages, not to mention the Adam & Eve double bottom is now void, therefore we’re expecting the bleed lower to continue moving forward. The lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest lower prices, hence we’re thinking 0.0035 is likely in the not too distant future, and if that area cannot hold then much lower prices are likely (hence we’re still staying far away from this one for now).
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is looking pretty bad as we progress further into December given that the medium-term ascending triangle has been voided on red SCMR signals, deteriorating market structure, and a bearish TD count, so we want to stay on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. The active red SCMR dots overhead, the reversing 50 SMA, and the still falling 200 SMA are also pointing to more sell pressure on the market moving forward, although the modified CMF is still showing slightly more buyers than sellers so we’ll continue to look for signs of a bottom so that we can get active on the long side again at some point.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC 2-day linear chart
BSV/BTC is off to a good start to the week following news that Craig Wright was found not guilty of all but one charge in the Kleiman partnership case, certainly a big win for the BSVer’s, that has sparked a breakout above the elongated descending cylinder that price has been stuck in since May on a large bright green SCMR signal and newly bullish TD count. The move also comes on improving momentum and volume indications while price moves above the 50 SMA, good news for the bulls, so if they can break the 100 SMA where a rejection is currently taking place then the OTE short zone above between 0.0038 – 0.0044 is certainly in the cards. That said, a failure to get back above the 0.0035 level over the course of this week likely puts the bears back in control heading into year end so the bulls need to keep the buying momentum going for now else this rally will have been for naught.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.0024 with a target of 0.0040.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT 2-day linear chart
BSV/USDT is gaining some much-needed traction this week after breaking down to new regional and cycle lows over the weekend, traction that is actually not all that surprising considering we had a TD 9 bottom signal last week as well. The spike to new lows and subsequent rejection higher also plays into a Wyckoff accumulation bottom narrative with $80 being the spring for the new cycle, however the $200 level must be cleared with conviction and successfully retested before we’re ready to call for a new bull market in this one (although for the first time in a while it appears possible).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $120 level with shorter-term upside to $200, and longer-term upside to around $400.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC doesn’t look too great for the time being, at least not from a technical perspective, considering that price broke down out of the descending triangle last week on red SCMR signals thus turning medium-term market structure even more bearish while the 100 SMA gets close to joining the 50 SMA in a downtrend, so we want to stay very cautious moving forward. That said, if the 200 SMA around 0.00028 can hold through through the week’s end then the increasingly favorable momentum and volume indications could help kick off a significant move back to the upside late in the month or early next year.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the near-term but with a longer-term target around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
It’s been an unexpected and disappointing run to the downside for DERO/USDT over the past few weeks with price breaking down below the $16 area over the weekend thus confirming the large double top overhead and sending prices all the way down to $11.50 before the bulls stepped back in, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. We also saw a breakdown below the still rising 200 SMA, also scary for the bulls, although the recovery back above that line has been swift and has sparked a blue SCMR reversal signal so perhaps the bottom is finally in. The momentum and volume indications also look bottomy for the time being, however the TD count is still bearish, hinting at a retest of sub-$14 levels before a sustainable rally so we’ll wait for that pullback before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $14 level for shorter-term upside to the $18 area and longer-term upside to $120.
Good Luck, Good Trading!