Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Dec 1 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While news headlines and social media influencers continue to call the top in the crypto markets due to the Omicron COVID variant, as well as the specter of rising rates next year, the technicals continue to indicate that the path of least resistance later this year and yearly next is higher. Granted the shorter-term outlook is a bit murkier due to the aforementioned headwinds, however we think these worries are pushed aside by investors over the coming weeks allowing for a risk-on Santa Claus rally that likely pushes most major crypto assets to new all-time highs (in USD).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Today we’ll zoom in to the 4-hour chart to see where the shorter-term technicals stand and despite some downside volatility this morning price remains above the reversing 50 SMA on green SCMR signals and improving market structure within what very well could be an Inverse Head & Shoulders bottom, all quite positive signs for the bulls as we begin December. Having said that, price is still struggling with resistance in the $60k area due to the falling 100 SMA and bottom of the supply area overhead while the 200 SMA continues to move lower and the volume indications remain lackluster, therefore we’re expecting more turbulence over the near-term with the possibility of a final retest of sub-$56k levels before a breakout above $60k a bit later in the month.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $54k – $56k region with an initial target around $60k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term setup where we can see that while price has broken above the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart, we still have yet to see a close above this line on the daily timeframe which is another reason why the bulls are struggling today. The still bearish state of shorter-term market structure, still neutral SCMR candles, mixed volume indications, and moving averages above and below the market are also signs that the current consolidation below $60k might have some legs over the next few days, although once resistance around $60k is broken we’re fairly confident in new all-time highs not long thereafter.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $56k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The move lower in XMR/BTC today has put the Adam & Eve bottom in serious jeopardy which is bad news for the bulls to be sure, as is the red SCMR signal, bearish candle formation, red TD 4 count, and deteriorating market structure, so we think it best to stay neutral for the time being. The falling moving averages, still lackluster momentum and volume indications, and new SCMR resistance dots overhead are also pointing to a challenging environment for the bulls persisting into the new month, so we’ll stay on the sidelines until further notice considering our current position size.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD is still trying to carve out another bottom in the medium-term demand area on decent looking momentum oscillators and slowly improving volume indications, so the bulls are still in this fight for now, however we want to move to a neutral stance until further notice due to the risk of a breakdown to new regional lows moving forward. The red SCMR signal on a bearish candle formation today is not helping matters for the bulls either, nor are the falling moving averages, so we’ll pause our buying until more clarity emerges regarding whether we hold support at $220 or not.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC wicked up to new regional highs today on a bright green SCMR signal and a TD 5 count, both of which portend more upside moving forward, as do the rising moving averages, active SCMR support dots, bullish market structure setup, and favorable momentum and volume indications, so we’re still expecting continuation up to the 0.095 – 0.100 area by year-end. That being said, the current candle formation leaves something to be desired and a backtest of the breakout in the mid to high-0.070’s would be rather healthy before moving on to greener pastures so we’re expecting a bit of downside volatility this week before much higher prices later in the month.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.075 with an initial target of 0.095 and a secondary target of 0.120.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has been moving to the upside over the past few days which has put the bulls within a whisper of new all-time highs above $4900, however they are currently struggling to push price above resistance which has sparked a few rather discouraging candle formations recently so some near-term turbulence around current levels is to be expected. That said, bullish market structure remains firmly intact, all of the moving averages are still trending higher and are supportive, SCMR signals are green, TD count is bullish, and the momentum and volume indications suggest much more upside potential over the coming weeks, therefore we’re staying ready to buy dips into near-term support below $4400 (hopefully before a sustainable breakout to new all-time highs into the $5000’s).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $4400 level with shorter-term upside to $5200, and longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
After failing to move past resistance in the lower supply area earlier this week, the XEQ/BTC bulls are now back on the defensive as the large caps come back into focus for investors, although we think this weakness will present another buying opportunity for longer-term players due to the confluence that is forming in the mid-0.00000600’s via the upper demand area, OTE long zone, and converging shorter-term moving averages. The momentum oscillators also need a recharge before another test of the 0.00001000 area, therefore we think the path of least resistance is down at least over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the 0.00000700 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.00001000 area and longer-term upside to 0.00003000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD is also under some selling pressure today after hitting supply area resistance early in the week which is keeping market structure fairly uncertain and candle formations mixed, so we’re anticipating some additional volatility over the coming days. The lackluster OBV reading and a charging RSI also suggest some consolidation is likely heading into the weekend, although we love the confluence that is forming in the $0.40 area so we’ll be ready and waiting for price to get there before a test of even higher levels down the road.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $0.40 level for shorter-term upside to the $0.65 area and longer-term upside to $3.50.
Good Luck, Good Trading!