Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Nov 23 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a pretty scary day to start the week yesterday which saw prices make new local and regional lows around the $55k level, things are looking much better today both technically and fundamentally which is a welcome development heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The charts are now hinting at the possibility that the 60-day cycle lows are finally in, and we are starting to get more clarity regarding the Mt. Gox funds, which is turning out to be more bullish than anticipated, so even if we get one more leg to the downside into the $53k – $55k buy zone we think we’re very close to being done with this correction. That said, a week or two of choppy consolidation is also quite possible before the bull market resumes so we’ll stay patient and fairly cautious for the remainder of this week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll stick with the 6-hour chart for the shorter-term technicals where we can see that a double bottom is trying to form in the medium-term OTE long zone and above the upper demand area, which is certainly encouraging news for the bulls moving forward, as is the blue SCMR reversal signal that painted earlier today. The recharged and bullishly divergent momentum oscillators should also help the bulls during this low liquidity holiday week, although the lackluster volume indications and a moving average/SCMR resistance confluence around $60k are likely to keep upside capped at least over the shorter-term.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $53k – $55k region with an initial target around $60k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to return to the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand now that we have a potential bottom, and so far things are looking much better for the bulls than they did over the weekend considering that we’re getting a perfected TD 9 signal on a small but bullish candle formation that is keeping price well above key support at $54k. The moving averages also continue to look good and the momentum oscillators are flashing some bullish divergences, however the volume indications remain unimpressive, SCMR signals are still red, and new SCMR resistance dots are forming around $59.5k while TD resistance starts to build at $66.5k, all of which is telling us that we’re likely to be trapped in a consolidation below $60k over the next week or two.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $55k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While BTC/USD has been exploring new regional lows over the past several days, XMR/BTC has continued to try to carve out the “Eve” portion of the Adam & Eve double bottom that remains in play, good news for the bulls moving forward, as is the shift to neutral/bullish SCMR signals since the blue reversal candle late last week. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to fall, the momentum and volume indications are still underwhelming, and market structure leaves much to be desired for now, so the path of least resistance remains sideways heading into the long weekend.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll stay zoomed out to the XMR/USD weekly chart today where we can see that longer-term price action continues to form a large ascending triangle on strong volume indications while long-term market structure remains intact, all of which bodes well for the bulls from a broader perspective. On the other hand, a bearish purple SCMR pivot bar, the recent break of the 50 SMA, and lackluster momentum oscillators are likely to keep downward pressure on price over the shorter-term hence we’ll keep our buys around and below $220 for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for an initial target at the $305 level and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
ETH/BTC is looking as good as ever heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend considering that price is now testing the top of the triangle/pennant on a bullish candle formation, bright green SCMR signal, green TD 2 count, and rapidly improving market structure, all of which suggests a breakout to the upside in the not too distant future. The rising moving averages, favorable momentum and volume indications, and a potential close inside of the supply area also bode well for the bulls moving forward, hence we’re holding strong for much higher upside targets over the coming weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below 0.070 for initial upside to 0.080 and longer-term upside to 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is starting to look like it is bottoming in much the same way as it did in late September, especially now that we have a blue SCMR reversal signal on a bullish engulfing candle that is also a green TD 2, certainly good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the still rising moving averages. The improving momentum oscillators, the still encouraging volume indications, and the active SCMR and TD support dots below the market are also pointing towards a bullish bias over the coming days, hence our buys from the $4k area are looking good moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $4000 level with shorter-term upside to $5200, and longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC has been consolidating just below the OTE short zone over the past several days on a hodgepodge of candle formations, neutral SCMR signals, uncertain medium-term market structure, and a mixed TD count, all of which points to more of the same over the coming days. The mixed shorter-term moving averages and the lackluster momentum indications are also suggesting a directionally challenged market over the shorter-term, however the rising 200 SMA, an elevated OBV reading, and a developing bullish pennant above previous resistance all suggest that the medium-term bias remains firmly to the upside until further notice.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the 0.000350 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.000450 area and longer-term upside to 0.001000.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT continues to creep to the downside over the short-term on neutral SCMR signals, mixed candle formations, and deteriorating market structure while the volume indications suggest more sellers than buyers on this dip (s0 far), therefore we think it best to stay cautious over the course of this week. That said, the rising longer-term moving averages below the market and the developing Cup & Handle continuation pattern are both very bullish from a medium to long-term perspective so we would use weakness below $20 so add to positions before the crypto bull market resumes (likely later this month or early next).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the $20 level for shorter-term upside to the $25 area and longer-term upside to $120.
Good Luck, Good Trading!