Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Nov 18 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bitcoin markets indeed remain depressed heading into the weekend as expected and now price is taking another leg to the downside below $58k which means that the bears are likely to stay in control over the near-term. The announcement of the finalization of the Mt. Gox rehabilitation plan has also put some pressure on the bulls and will likely remain an overhang until we get more details, therefore we’re staying cautious over the coming days due to elevated downside risks.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price is pushing down to new local lows today on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, a red TD count, and bearish market structure, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the upcoming weekend. The break of the 200 SMA, the reversal of the 50 and 100 SMAs, the SCMR dots overhead, and increasing sell volume are also bad signs for the bulls, hence our caution and neutrality until the $53k – $55k buy zone, although the momentum oscillators are already recharged and MACD is bullishly divergent so when we finally do find a bottom we expect a fairly sharp reaction off of the lows.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $53k – $55k region with an initial target around $63k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll return to the daily chart where we can see that price has broken down below the 50 SMA and into the upper demand area today on a bearish candle formation, a red SCMR signal, a red TD 4, and increasingly heavy market structure, all of which reinforces the idea that lower is still currently the path of least resistance. The deteriorating volume indications, not yet recharged momentum oscillators, and active SCMR resistance dots overhead also suggest a bearish bias over the near-term, however the confluence in the ~$54k area remains highly attractive for entries so we’ll stay neutral and patient until that region.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $55k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Despite the bearish technicals on almost all timeframes the XMR/BTC bulls have managed to keep price above the top of the long-term demand area thus creating a potential Adam & Eve bottom that could lead to a significant rally in the not too distant future. The recharged momentum oscillators also remain a positive for the bulls moving forward, however the still falling moving averages, red SCMR signals, discouraging TD count, and still bearish volume indications are keeping the door wide open to the low-0.0030’s so we’ll stay neutral and in our long-term positions for the time being.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD weekly linear chart
XMR/USD looks poised for more downside given the current state of the technicals so we want to zoom out to the weekly chart today to see where the next area of support comes in and it still looks like the bottom of the longer-term triangle in the $210 – $220 region is where buyers will begin to get active again. The red SCMR signal, the break of the 50 SMA, and the not yet recharged momentum oscillators are also pointing to a shorter-term downward bias so we’ll stay on the sidelines until the next support region is reached below $220.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for an initial target at the $305 level and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
We continued to be surprised by the fact that the 0.070 level is still acting as support for ETH/BTC despite the broad crypto weakness, which is a good sign for the bulls, however a bearish TD count, mixed momentum oscillators, and a transition from an ascending triangle to a symmetrical one are all keeping the warning signs blinking for now. The slow bleed of the volume indications and increasingly worrisome market structure are also keeping us very cautious over the near-term, however the 0.068 and 0.062 levels remain attractive entries for longer-term players so we’ll keep our buys in those regions moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips to the 0.068 and 0.062 regions for initial upside to 0.080 and longer-term upside to 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has finally moved down into our initial buy zone around $4000 which should begin acting as support, however right now it looks like even lower prices are likely before a sustainable bottom develops considering a firmly bearish candle formation is painting on a red SCMR signal and red TD 7 while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge. That said, all of the moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications remain encouraging overall so we’ll continue to buy as prices move lower into key support areas.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below $3600 level with shorter-term upside to $5000, and longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC continues to consolidate in the middle of the OTE long zone and in between the 50 and 100 SMAs while the volume indications remain stagnant and market structure is highly uncertain, all suggesting more of the same over the shorter-term. The RSI reading also points to more choppy sideways action in the OTE moving forward, although we do have a bullish divergence on MACD and support is quite strong between 0.00000400 – 0.00000500 so that’s where we’ll focus our buying power over the coming days and weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness below the 0.00000500 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.00000650 area and longer-term upside to 0.00003000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has bounced off of the bottom of the OTE long zone over the past few days on improving momentum and volume indications and still intact longer-term market structure, so we remain longer-term bullish on this one moving forward. Having said that, we don’t think that the consolidation is anywhere near complete yet so we think we’ll have more time to add in buy zones before price takes off to the upside again. Additionally, we still cannot rule out a final leg to the downside to the intermediate term demand area between $0.20 -$0.30 so we’ll leave some stink bids around $0.25 just in case.
Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $0.38 and $0.25 areas for shorter-term upside to the $0.50 area and longer-term upside to the $3.50 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!