Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Nov 12 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
At the beginning of the week we said that a regional top was likely around the $70k level due to the overstretched shorter-term technicals, and today a rejection of the Van Eck Bitcoin ETF by the SEC has sparked a regional top being put in at $69k followed by downside into the low-$60k’s as we head into the weekend so our initial forecast was fairly accurate. While this comes as no surprise given our outlook, it is discouraging nonetheless to see the bulls fail to put a $70k-handle on the market before relenting the remainder of the 60-day cycle to the bears (with about 10 days left). With that in mind, we think the near-term bias is now slightly bearish with a period of consolidation likely once again around the $60k level over the next week or so.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First, we’ll look at the 6-hour chart again as it remains the best view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price has been moving to the downside over the past few days on mostly bearish candle formations and some red SCMR signals, and near-term market structure has been broken so some damage has certainly been done to the technicals for now. We also have new SCMR resistance dots overhead at the $65.5k level which are likely to keep price capped at least through the weekend, although the momentum and volume indications don’t look that bad at all, we’re on a TD 9 bottom signal, and so far we’re simply testing the top of the broken triangle pattern, which is bullish overall, so we’ll be ready to buy weakness below $61k which is where the triangle apex, OTE long zone, and TD support dots all converge (hence the green star indicating our buy zone).
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips below $61k with an initial target of around $65.5k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also update the daily chart where we can see that the recent pullback has sparked an orange SCMR pivot bar that is being followed up by some neutral SCMR signals but a new red TD count on some deteriorating momentum and volume indications, so we need to stay cautious over the upcoming weekend. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to rise, the CMF is looking much better, new SCMR support dots are now building at the $62,294 local low, and we have the perfect setup for a Cup & Handle continuation pattern to materialize, all of which is still very bullish from a medium-term perspective.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Today we’ll zoom back into the XMR/BTC daily chart where we can see that price is still trying to find a bottom around the OTE long zone and just above the long-term demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations, mixed SCMR signals, an unhelpful TD count, and still bearish market structure, so the bulls certainly still have their work cut out for them moving forward. The falling moving averages and the still discouraging momentum and volume indications aren’t helping matters for the bulls either, hence we’re still leaning towards a breakdown below 0.0040 in the not too distant future, however we also cannot rule out a sustainable bottom in this region so we’ll continue to watch for signs of a reversal (although until we get them we’ll be on the sidelines).
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD spiked up and out of the symmetrical triangle/pennant over the past few days but was quickly rejected back into the formation on a bearish SCMR pivot bar, and now price is back below the moving averages on a red SCMR signal and a newly bearish TD count so we’re back to neutral on this one for the time being. The mixed momentum and volume indications also suggest that our forecast for an extension of the triangle remains the most likely scenario, although we’re also still hoping for one spike down into our buy area below $250 in order to add to positions before a break of $300 towards year-end.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC 3-day linear chart
Next, we’ll zoom out to the ETH/BTC 3-day chart where we can see that the large ascending triangle remains firmly intact while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher and the volume indications remain encouraging, so the longer-term outlook remains very favorable for the bulls. The not overbought momentum oscillators and the new SCMR support dots at 0.069 are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, however we do have a TD 9 top signal developing on the current candle and a nasty double top is now a possibility so we’re expecting some near-term (buyable) weakness into support in the high-0.060’s over the coming days (if not down to test the lower triangle trendline once again which we would be buyers of as well).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.070 for shorter-term upside to 0.080 and longer-term upside to 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
Incredibly, ETH/USD remains inside of the ascending channel despite mixed candle formations, an unhelpful TD count, and overbought momentum oscillators, telling us that the bulls are still in control for now. The rising moving averages and intact market structure are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, although the distance from said moving averages is pretty wide so a break of the channel likely leads to a pullback to the support confluence that is building around the $4000 level (which we would be buyers of if given the opportunity).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below the $4100 level with shorter-term upside to $5500, and longer-term upside to around $12,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
Our bullishness on DERO/BTC recently seems to have been warranted given the move higher over the past couple of days off of the double bottom from late last month on green SCMR signals, improving market structure, rising longer-term moving averages, and a favorable TD count. The recent break of the 50 SMA, the encouraging momentum and volume indications, and new SCMR support dots also point to a bullish bias moving forward, although OTE resistance overhead is quite strong and supply area/SCMR resistance between 0.00045 – 0.00050 is very heavy so we think there is likely to be some downside volatility in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00035 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00050 area and longer-term upside to 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has moved all the way up close to all-time highs over the past few days but selling resistance has kept price capped while the TD count gets within a day of a 9 sell signal and RSI gets close to overbought, so we think it’s best to be cautious over the near-term (especially considering the near-term uncertainty for BTC/USD). The current candle formations also don’t look great for now, hence increased downside risk for now, however the rising moving averages and very favorable volume indications suggest that a pullback should be bought in anticipation of a breakout to new all-time highs by year-end (at the latest).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20 for shorter-term upside to the $27 area and longer-term upside to the $120 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!