Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Nov 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Despite little in the way of positive newsflow today the strong price action from over the weekend has persisted into this week with price moving up to new regional and all-time highs above $67k on still strong medium to long-term technicals and favorable seasonality for the remainder of the year. The fundamentals also continue to support higher prices over the coming few months, however the shorter-term technicals are once again stretched to the upside so a pause/pullback before a sustainable break of $70k seems likely moving forward.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this second week of November with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price has accelerated to the upside since breaking above the triangle/pennant yesterday on bullish candle formations, bright green SCMR signals, intact and favorable market structure, and still rising moving averages, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The encouraging volume indications also support a bullish bias overall, however momentum is getting close to overbought, a perfected TD 9 sell signal printed at the daily close today (which marked the top perfectly on October 20th), and we have the TD risk line right at $70k so we think we get some downside volatility over the near-term between there and current levels.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $60k – $62k area with an initial target around $70k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up is the daily chart for a view of medium-term technicals where we can see that price has just moved up to new all-time highs on a firmly bullish candle formation, bright green SCMR signal, TD 2 of 9, and very encouraging market structure, so it looks like there is more room to run higher moving forward. The new SCMR support dots around $63k, the still favorable momentum oscillators, the bullish OBV reading, and rising moving averages also suggest a bullish bias in general, although we have a TD risk line just overhead in the high-$67k’s and Fibonacci extension resistance all throughout the $70k’s so we think this part of the bull market is likely to be more of a slow grind than a sharp parabolic rise over the next few weeks.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC monthly linear chart
XMR/BTC is hanging on to the 0.0040 level by a thread which puts the bulls in real danger of a serious market structure breakdown thus we’re zooming out to the monthly chart to see where the next levels of support might come in, and for now it looks like the low-0.0030’s are the next area of interest if current levels cannot hold. Also, note that candle formations remain bearish, SCMR signals are red, we’re only on a red TD 4 of 9, and market structure is firmly bearish, so we really need to stay neutral and on the sidelines until some signs of a bottom emerge on the higher time frame charts given the danger of a 20% – 30% move lower from here.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still trading inside of the symmetrical triangle pattern on mixed candle formations and TD signals while SCMR signals remain a mess and market structure is still highly uncertain, all while the moving averages continue to flatline and compress, all pointing to more of the same moving forward. In fact, the momentum and volume indications are also suggesting more consolidation, likely extending the triangle here in the high-$200’s, so we’re in no rush to do much of anything in this market over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
Next we’ll look at BSV/BTC for the first time in quite a while where we can see that there still aren’t any real signs of a bottom/reversal given that price continues to grind lower within a large falling wedge/channel on what are once again bearish candle formations and red SCMR signals, so we’re staying far away from this one until further notice. The falling moving averages, bearish market structure, active SCMR resistance dots overhead, and lackluster momentum and volume indications confirm that the bears are still in full control so on the sidelines we remain for now.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT 3-day linear chart
Due to the strength in BTC/USD, BSV/USDT has started to look better technically recently considering that medium-term market structure has improved due to the higher low that formed last month, and now price is grinding up on some small but bullish candle formations and a few green SCMR signals so we’re leaning slightly bullish for the time being. The momentum and volume indications also support slightly higher prices over the coming days, however resistance remains stiff around the psychologically significant $200 level which is where we expect the bears to return.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below the $150 level with upside to the $200 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to chop around inside of the OTE long zone and upper demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations, mixed SCMR signals, an unhelpful TD count, and uncertain short to medium-term market structure, so tactically speaking it’s probably best to stay neutral around current levels. The falling shorter-term moving averages and lackluster momentum oscillators confirm this view, although a still strong CMF and a possible medium-term double bottom within a double bottom suggest that the longer-term outlook remains favorable so holders can continue to add to positions in the 0.00020’s.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the shorter-term. Longer-term players can accumulate below 0.000300 for upside to the 0.001000 area.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT is consolidating above the OTE long zone for the time being following a double bottom in that region late last month and early this month, which is good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the improving momentum oscillators and the favorable CMF reading. The still-rising longer-term moving averages and intact longer-term market structure are also good signs for the bulls heading into year-end, however the stagnating 50 SMA overhead, a mixed TD count, and neutral SCMR signals are telling us that the shorter-term outlook remains more uncertain therefore we’re likely to stay below $25 for the foreseeable future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $18 for shorter-term upside to the $23 area and longer-term upside to the $120 region.
Good Luck, Good Trading!