Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(November 5 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
We’re ending this first week of November in a very similar fashion to how we began it with choppy, directionless price action and a subsequently slow news cycle, both of which are likely to persist over the coming weekend, although given the historically low levels of volatility we think a larger move is becoming increasingly likely next week. Given the current technical setup we still think the breakout is likely to be to the upside to new all-time highs when it comes, but we cannot rule out a fake-out to the downside first which would be yet another buying opportunity heading into the holiday season.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start with a look at the 6-hour chart for a broad view of the near-term setup where we can see that price is still consolidating around the flatlining shorter-term moving averages and within a large symmetrical triangle on mixed candle formations, slightly bearish SCMR signals, and uncertain market structure, all suggesting more sideways action over the coming days. The still recharging momentum oscillators and stalling volume indications also point to more of the same over the near-term, however we want to be ready for a quick move to the downside into the support confluence area between ~$58k – $60k given that we think we’re nearing the end of this consolidation period.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $58k – $60k area with an initial target of around $70k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the daily chart before the weekend where we can see that little directional progress has been made either way over the course of this week leading to mixed candle formations, neutral SCMR signals, an incomplete TD count, and still lackluster momentum and volume indications, again pointing to more consolidation over the near-term. Having said that, the shorter-term moving averages continue to rise, the 200 SMA is very close to turning bullish, medium-term market structure remains intact, and there is a rounded bottom forming in the high-$50k’s to low-$60k’s which confirms our call for an upside breakout once this directionless period has run its course.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has settled back into a downtrend on the daily chart despite the TD 9 buy signal on the weekly, certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward, and neither are the red SCMR signals, bearish momentum and volume indications, and discouraging daily TD count. The falling moving averages and still bearish market structure are also suggesting that the bears are likely to remain in control moving forward, although price is in the near-term OTE long zone on a fairly bullish candle formation so if the bulls want to avoid sub-0.0040 levels (and likely much lower) then this area needs to be defended over the weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.0040 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.0050 area and longer-term upside to around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Still not much to report on XMR/USD as price continues to consolidate inside of the symmetrical triangle on mixed candle formations, slightly bearish SCMR signals, a highly uncertain TD count, and lackluster momentum and volume indications, so more of the same appears likely over the coming days. That said, the now bearish 50 and 200 SMAs and deteriorating near-term market structure suggest that a move down below $250 is increasingly likely before the bulls return in earnest.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC looks like it’s getting ready for a pause or a pullback in the not too distant future considering that we’re getting a TD 9 top signal inside of the OTE short zone and lower supply area while the momentum oscillators get stretched to the upside. The 50 SMA also remains in a short-term downtrend while medium-term market structure is still highly uncertain, although we’ll use a move back down to the 0.068 – 0.070 area to add to positions for much higher prices later in the cycle.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.070 for shorter-term upside to the 0.080 area and longer-term upside to 0.120.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD also looks extended to the upside at this time given we have a TD 9 top signal here too on a doji candle while momentum remains significantly overbought, so we’re expecting a retracement back down to the $4000 – $4200 region over the near-term. That said, we fully expect the bull market to resume once this pullback has materialized due to the still rising moving averages, intact bullish longer-term market structure, and the very encouraging volume indications which continue to suggest that buyers are more active than sellers thus reinforcing our buy the dip strategy moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $4200 for shorter-term upside to $5000 and longer-term upside to $15,000.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
XEQ/BTC has had a fairly nice end to the workweek bouncing off of the rising 50 SMA over the past few days thus sparking some bullish candle formations on improving momentum and volume indications while the longer-term moving averages continue to rise, all good news for the bulls overall. The fact that price is still finding support in the OTE long zone also bodes well for the bulls longer-term, however we cannot rule out a final move down to the 100 SMA and bottom of the OTE around 0.00000500 which is where we’ll keep the majority of our bids moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000500 for upside to the initial target of 0.00001000 and a secondary target of 0.00002000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD continues to find support in the OTE long zone and the upper demand area while it consolidates gains from the past few months, which is good news for the bulls moving forward, as are the rising moving averages and encouraging momentum and volume indications. Having said that, shorter-term market structure remains bearish overall and altseason has yet to begin so we think more consolidation in the OTE long zone is likely before bulls can make much progress to the upside.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.40 for shorter-term upside to $0.50 and longer-term upside to the $2.50 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!