Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Nov 1 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a choppy and rather frustrating weekend of price action for both BTC bulls and bears, we come into this first week of November with yet more sideways movement on very mixed technicals, a slow news cycle, and fairly neutral seasonality, so it looks like more of the same is likely over the near-term. The longer-term technicals, on the other hand, remain firmly in the bull camp, as do the fundamentals, so we want to continue to use this consolidation period as an opportunity to add to positions heading into the last part of the cycle.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Given the highly mixed state of the shorter-term technicals we’ll focus on the higher timeframe charts today where we can see on the daily that price has been moving generally lower over the past 10 days within what appears to be descending channel/pennant pattern on very mixed candle formations, mostly neutral SMCR signals, a highly uncertain TD count, and bearish near-term market structure, all suggesting more action inside of the channel as the market continues to consolidate just below the all-time highs. The flatlined momentum oscillators and the slowly falling OBV and CMF readings also suggest more mixed to slightly weak price action over the coming few days, although the still rising moving averages and orderliness of the consolidation overall tell us that this is a minor accumulation period before new highs later in the month.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $56k – $58k area with an initial target around $70k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next, we’ll turn to the weekly chart for a view of the medium to long-term technicals where we can see that after hitting new all-time highs a few weeks ago price has been volatile to both the upside and the downside but with little in the way of notable progress in either direction thus creating some very mixed candle formations while the momentum oscillators begin to stall out, all confirming our forecast for more near-term consolidation. Conversely, the still rising moving averages, bright green SCMR signals, a bullish TD count (5), and favorable volume indications are all quite bullish in nature long-term so we think this pause in price is nothing more than profit-taking near all-time highs before a breakout well above $65k a little later in the fall.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
While XMR/BTC continues to consolidate in the 0.0040’s near historical support on mixed candle formations, red SCMR signals, and bearish market structure, we are getting a perfected TD 9 buy signal that very well could mark the bottom for this bearish cycle. The recharged momentum oscillators and stabilizing volume indications are also some positive signs for the bulls to start the month, although this is a weekly chart so we’re expecting more choppy sideways action over the next week or two while a proper bottom is established around the top of the long-term demand area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.0042 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.0050 area and longer-term upside to around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still marking time inside of the large symmetrical triangle pattern on mixed candle formations, neutral SCMR signals, unhelpful TD signals, and highly uncertain market structure, all of which points to more consolidation within the triangle over the shorter-term. The stagnant momentum and volume indications also suggest that the market will likely stay directionally challenged over the coming days so we’ll stay on the sidelines until something more significant happens with the technicals
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $260 for shorter-term term upside to the $315 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
BCH/BTC has had a rough go of it over the past several months with price moving back into long-term historical support on bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, broken market structure, and falling moving averages, although we are now seeing some stabilization of price while the TD count comes within a candle of a 9 bottom so perhaps we’re getting close to the end of this brutal bear market. The momentum and volume indications are also suggesting that we’re likely getting closer to at least a regional low and subsequent countertrend bounce, although the next few weeks are likely to stay fairly bearish so patience is warranted in this one.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD 3-day linear chart
BCH/USD has been trying to put in a higher low over the past week around the slightly bearish 50 SMA while SCMR tries to confirm a blue reversal signal and the momentum oscillators get close to recharged, so there are some small rays of hope for the bulls moving forward. Having said that, the TD count is still negative and medium-term market structure remains firmly bearish for now so we’ll stay neutral and patient on this one until we get more convincing evidence of a sustainable reversal.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC has recently moved back down into the OTE long zone and the upper demand area on some bearish candle formations, red SCMR signals, a red TD 4 count, and increasingly bearish shorter-term market structure so we want to stay fairly neutral until we get more directional clarity. The now falling 50 SMA and bleeding OBV reading are also keeping the caution lights on for the time being, although some legitimate bullish momentum divergences and a rapidly rising CMF are telling us that buyers are still active in this region so holding current positions for more upside later in the year certainly seems like the play for now.
Trade Idea: Hold current positions for shorter-term upside to the 0.00040 area and longer-term upside to around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT is still under pressure to the downside to start this month thus keeping SCMR signals red and the TD count bearish while shorter-term market structure continues to deteriorate and the OBV reading continues to bleed, so now is not the time to get aggressive on the long side. That said, price is finding some near-term support at SCMR support dots and the rising 100 SMA while the momentum oscillators diverge bullishly and CMF continues to rise so we would not be surprised to see a sustainable bottom and reversal in the next few weeks in the $15 – $17 region (which we will be buyers of).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $17 for shorter-term upside to $24 and longer-term upside to the $120 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!