Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Oct 26 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
While the bitcoin markets started off the week on a positive note yesterday both technically and fundamentally considering that price moved swiftly off of the recent sub-$60k lows on news that Mastercard will be offering crypto services to all of its bank and merchant clients, today we’ve settled back into consolidation mode on mixed shorter-term technicals that are telling us to stay generally cautious over the near-term. That said, we continue to think that we will see new all-time highs up to the $75k area in the not too distant future so long as the bulls can continue to defend the $60k region over the course of this week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start this last week of October with a look at the 6-hour chart for a broad view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price moved higher off of the double bottom that formed over the weekend pushing price above the still rising 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages remain in steady uptrends, all fairly good signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the momentum and volume indications are favorable while the 50 SMA acts as support is also good news for the bulls, however market structure is a bit of a mess and SCMR signals are quite mixed at this time following a bearish pivot late yesterday so we think another test of the upper demand area is likely before we see a tag of the OTE short zone around $65k.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $59k – $61k area with an initial target around $65k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand following the weekend action and right now things are looking pretty good for the bulls overall considering that price has carved out a much higher medium-term low over the past several days leading to a strengthening of already bullish market structure while SCMR signals return to bright green. The now rising 200 SMA and the trending shorter-term moving averages are also good signs for the bulls heading into November, however the volume indications still show profit-taking for the time being and the momentum oscillators leave something to be desired so it looks like the path of least resistance over the short-term is still sideways between the ~$59k – $66k.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has stalled out to start this week following the nice countertrend rally we saw last week which has pushed the TD indicator to a 6 meaning the bulls only have a few more days to try and get price up to our 0.0050 target before the bears start to get more active once again. Market structure still remains quite bearish overall as well which will make things even more difficult for the bulls, however the momentum and volume indications continue to support a final leg up to the resistance confluence around 0.0050 at some point over the course of this week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.0040 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.0050 area and longer-term upside to around 0.0100.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is currently consolidating just below the bottom of the lower supply area and around previous regional highs but above the still rising 200 SMA while shorter-term market structure remains favorable and the 100 SMA continues to trend higher, so it appears as though the bulls still have a bit of an advantage for the time being. Additionally, the momentum oscillators also still have some room to run to the upside before needing a recharge and volumes continue to run slightly bullish, so we would not be surprised to see a wick up near our $315 target over the coming days before the bears get active once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $270 for shorter-term term upside to the $315 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC remains firmly inside of a large ascending triangle as we get close to ending this month which is good news for the bulls longer-term, as are the still favorable volume indications, however price is already stalling out at moving average resistance just overhead while the momentum oscillators get close to needing a recharge so we think that we’ll be stuck in this formation a while still to come. Having said that, SCMR signals are bright green and TD is on a 7 so we could see a continuation up to the 0.072 region before falling back into the mid-0.060’s once again to start next month.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.064 for shorter-term upside to the 0.072 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
The ETH/USD chart is one of the most bullish charts in crypto considering that price is sitting just below the all-time highs on still bullish candle formations, bright green SCMR signals, a TD 4 of 9, and very favorable market structure, therefore we are expecting new highs in the near future. The rising moving averages and still very encouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bulls are in full control and are likely to go for $4400+ prices soon, although we certainly could see a week or two of turbulence around the ATHs before going for the 123.6% Fibonacci extension around the $5000 level early next month.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $4000 level for shorter-term upside to $5000. Longer-term target resides around $12,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
A failure by the DERO/BTC bears to push price to new regional lows on a retest of the upper demand area and OTE long zone over the weekend has opened the door to some strength on the part of the bulls to start this week which has pushed price above the 100 SMA on a TD 3 of 9 and rapidly improving momentum and volume indications, all suggesting a bullish bias at least over the near-term. While market structure remains a concern for the time being, we would not be surprised to see price move up into the 0.00040’s once SCMR resistance at 0.00035 is broken over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00032 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.00044 area and longer-term upside to around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has been moving swiftly to the upside over the past few days following a hold of the OTE long zone and rising 100 SMA over the weekend thus sparking a TD 2 above a green 1 while the momentum and volume indications begin to improve, all good signs for the bulls moving forward. The fact that price is back above the rising 50 SMA while the 200 SMA continues to trend higher as well is also good news for the bulls overall, hence we think a continuation up to the OTE short zone in the $24 area is a good bet over the coming days, although we expect a failure there which implies that the medium-term consolidation continues for a while longer still.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $18 for shorter-term upside to $24 and longer-term upside to the $120 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!