Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(October 22 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a rally up to new all-time highs earlier this week on the back of the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), bitcoin is now pulling back to find support before price exploration truly begins on the next breakout. First of all, we’ve gotten more fedspeak today regarding tapering stimulus which is putting upward pressure on the US dollar and downward pressure on BTC, the technicals have deteriorated a bit which is triggering some automated selling, and sentiment needed a washout before new ATHs. That said, we remain firmly bullish overall heading into year-end so we’ll use this weakness as an opportunity to add to positions at key support levels before the bulls regain control.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin to wrap up this work week with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that price has broken down below the ascending channel today on a bearish candle formation that is being followed up by a bearish doji while near-term market structure is in jeopardy of being broken to the downside, not great news for the bulls moving forward. Neither is the recent break of the 50 SMA or the increase in sell volumes near ATHs, although the momentum oscillators are getting close to recharged and the longer-term moving averages continue to rise so we’re expecting a bottom to form in the not too distant future. Granted, there is some room for price to fall down to the $58 – $60k area again over the next few days, maybe even $56k, but we think these are good entries for the medium-term run-up to new ATHs heading into year-end.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $56k – $58k area with an initial target around $70k, and a secondary target of $75k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also zoom out to the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that a pretty nasty bearish candle formation has developed over the course of this week due to ATH resistance that brought sellers back to the table, not great news for the bulls over the near-term, and considering that there isn’t much in the way of historical support immediately below the market we need to be cautious over the upcoming weekend. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to trend higher, the volume indications remain generally supportive, the momentum oscillators still have room to run to the upside, and there is a long way to go before a double top even becomes a possibility, so we continue to anticipate much higher prices over the next few months despite the current 10 – 15% correction (which is healthy).
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
The XMR/BTC bulls are finally getting a respite from the weeks of selling we’ve seen so far this fall following a hold of support at the 0.0039 level a few days ago thus sparking a bullish candle formation and blue reversal candle yesterday that is being followed up by another favorable candle today while the momentum oscillators begin to pick up some steam off of the bottom, all good news for the bulls over the near-term. The stabilization of OBV for the time being is also a sign that the bulls have some room to run up to resistance around 0.0050, although we’re not seeing any evidence yet that this is anything more than a countertrend move while BTC cools off, so traders should be quick to take profits at resistance if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.0040 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.0050 area and longer-term upside to around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved up to the top of the symmetrical triangle and the 200 SMA over the past few days but is stopping at resistance as expected on a red doji candle that is keeping market structure highly uncertain while the shorter-term moving averages remain quite mixed, all suggesting that price is likely to stay in the triangle for at least a little while longer. The mixed momentum oscillators also point to more sideways action over the near-term, although the improving volume indications and intact longer-term market structure both suggest that the bias will be to the upside over the coming months hence we want to continue to try to accumulate close to support around $250.
Trade Idea: Accumulate around and below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $315 area and longer-term upside to around $1200.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
While DERO/BTC has yet to gain much ground to the upside as BTC has been correcting, it does look like the bulls are in the process of carving out a sustainable bottom in the high-0.00020’s due to a confluence of support in this region combined with still rising moving averages and improving volume indications. The momentum oscillators are also close to recharged and we’re on a TD 7 of 9, so if the bulls can survive the next few days without a nuke lower then we’ll likely be able to get bullish again next week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00028 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00038 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT remains in a fairly steep downtrend heading into the weekend on a bearish candle formation and increasingly heavy market structure while the 50 SMA gets broken and turns into resistance, certainly not great news for the bulls over the near-term. The falling OBV and MACD readings are also pointing to more downside before a sustainable bottom forms, although the RSI is getting close to recharged, CMF is printing a nice bullish divergence, and support is very strong in the $14 – $16 area which is where we expect to see a reversal develop over the next 3 – 5 days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $17 level for shorter-term upside to $22. Longer-term target resides around $120.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC 6-hour linear chart
While XEQ/BTC continues to tread water in the middle of the medium-term horizontal channel on lackluster momentum oscillators and uncertain market structure, there are some green shoots emerging that are keeping us bullish from a longer-term perspective such as the recent break of the downtrend line off of the ATHs as well as the potential double bottom that is very possible moving into month’s end. The bullishly divergent MACD is also a good sign for the bulls overall, however the volume indications don’t look great yet and resistance remains heavy overhead, therefore we’re expecting more choppy sideways action in the channel over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the 0.00000800 level for shorter-term upside to the 0.00001000 area and longer-term upside to around 0.00005000.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD is looking a bit heavier today than it has recently due to the bull trap-like pattern that was put in earlier this week which has turned short-term market structure more bearish while the momentum oscillators leave much to be desired, so caution remains warranted over the upcoming weekend. Having said that, the moving averages are still accelerating to the upside and the OBV reading is very encouraging so we continue to think that the $0.40 level and below is interesting for longer-term buys moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.40 for shorter-term upside to $0.75 and longer-term upside to the $6.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!