Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Oct 18 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As price generally moves higher and we get deeper into Q4 an increase in newsflow is to be expected, and that is exactly what we are seeing at the beginning of this mid-October week just before the launch of the first US-based Bitcoin ETF tomorrow, all confirming our still intact bullish bias over the next few months. The longer-term technicals also suggest a strong upward trajectory heading into year-end, although the shorter-term charts are flashing some warning signs so we’re anticipating a brief pause or shallow pullback in the not too distant future to set up all-time highs towards the end of the month.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We want to stay focused on the 4-hour chart today for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is now consolidating just below the new regional highs and right in the middle of the adjusted ascending channel on favorable volume indications and rising moving averages, so the bulls are still in control overall. However, near-term market structure is getting a bit dicey, the momentum oscillators are looking heavier than they have in a while, and we have a sell the news ETF event tomorrow, so a near-term pause or pullback is becoming increasingly likely. Having said that, we would continue to use weakness into key support zones such as the OTE/demand area/100 SMA confluence between ~$54k and $56k to buy dips due to the still rising and supportive moving averages, the very favorable volume indications, and intact longer-term market structure.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $54k – $56k area with an initial target around $65k, and a secondary target of $73k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart again where we can see that price is still treading water in the ATH supply area on mostly bullish candle formations and still firmly intact market structure while the moving averages slowly pick up steam to the upside and the volume indications are generally supportive of the bulls, so we’re expecting new all-time highs above $65k in the next couple of weeks. The momentum oscillators also still look good for another push higher before a legitimate correction materializes, although the TD 9 sell signal coming tomorrow needs to be watched as this could spark an early start to the selloff so caution is warranted over the next 24 hours.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
There has been no respite from the selling for the XMR/BTC bulls over the past few days as price continues to make new lows as it moves towards the 0.0040 level on small but firmly bearish candle formations that are keeping short and medium-term market structure broken while the short-term moving averages begin to stack (accelerate) to the downside, none of which shows that we’re close to putting in a sustainable bottom yet. The still lackluster momentum and volume indication are also bad news for the bulls moving forward, hence we’ll be moving to the sidelines until the bleeding stops, although we are getting into an area that is very historically significant so we’re expecting a reversal to materialize somewhere in the lower demand area above 0.0034.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target resides around 0.010.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD looks like it’s breaking down below the still rising 100 SMA today on another bearish candle formation that is keeping shorter-term market structure highly uncertain while the 200 SMA slowly reverses to join the 50 SMA in a downtrend, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the volume indications are stalling out while the momentum oscillators only begin to roll over and recharge also suggests that lower prices are likely before the bulls return to the marketplace in earnest, although downside is fairly limited from current levels due to the OTE long zone and upper demand area in the ~$230 – $250 region.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 area and longer-term upside to around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
Despite ETH/BTC being in a fairly significant short and medium-term support area over the course of the past week, the bulls have not reacted as favorably as we would have like to have seen, especially today when price has moved below the 200 SMA and the medium-term downtrend line on a firmly bearish candle formation that is keeping near-term market structure broken, so we don’t think a sustainable low has been found just yet. The still slowly deteriorating volume indications and the lackluster momentum oscillators also point to more near-term pain for the bulls, however there is a tremendous amount of support in the mid to high-0.050’s which is where we’ll start to nibble on the long side once again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips into the 0.055 – 0.058 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.075 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is currently treading water inside both a short and a long-term supply area thus sparking the possibility of a short-term double top just below $4000 while the momentum oscillators begin to look heavy and in need of a recharge, so the bulls need to be cautious over the coming days. The fact that near-term support is thin down 50 SMA in the ~$3400 area is also not great news for the bulls for now, however the moving averages are all still rising, market structure remains intact, and the volume indications are favorable overall, so any weakness into support is a gift before we see new regional highs in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below the $3400 level for shorter-term upside to $4000. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
While ARRR/BTC remains in control of the bears for the time being, the fact that price continues to consolidate above the upper key support line despite the strength we see in BTC is a very good sign for the bulls overall, as is the stabilization of OBV, so we’re still hoping for a sustainable bottom to form somewhere in this region in the near future. The bullishly divergent MACD reading and a fully recharged RSI are also signs that we could be close to a reversal, although if current levels cannot hold then we’ll need to wait for the 0.00001000 – 0.00002000 area before trying to long this one again.
Trade Idea: Buy dips into the 0.00003000 – 0.00003200 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.00005000 level. Longer-term target resides around 0.00050000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
ARRR/USDT is still consolidating in the long-term demand area on a hodgepodge of candle formations and bearish short-term market structure while the 50 SMA continues to move lower and the volume indications still favor the bears, so more of the same appears likely moving forward. Having said that, the possibility of a textbook double bottom within a double bottom remains alive and well while the momentum oscillators stay fairly neutral so we continue to think that there is a pretty good chance that a sustainable longer-term bottom develops around this $2 level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2.00 for shorter-term upside to $3.00 and longer-term upside to the $50.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!