Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Oct 16 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On the weekend before the first US-listed Bitcoin ETF likely launches in the US, it comes as no surprise that both bulls and bears are anxious and hesitant given the uncertainty around this unprecedented event. While the signal that this launch sends to the industry is certainly a positive one from a longer-term perspective, the structure of the instrument is somewhat concerning (futures-based) and this is the perfect setup for a sell the news reaction, so it’s no slam dunk for the bulls by any means. That said, the pullback we’ve seen off of the highs over the past few days should help reduce the impact of any selling we see post ETF release, so we’re still in buy the dip mode until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour chart remains the best view of the short-term technical setup right now where we can see that price spiked up to new local and regions highs above $62,000 yesterday, less than 5% away from all-time highs, but the move was rejected thus leading to a pullback to the $60k support line today on a fairly bearish candle formation that is back inside of the ascending channel while the momentum oscillators only begin to recharge to the downside, all hinting at a slightly bearish bias over the remainder of the weekend. In fact, a test of the $58k support area over the next few days would be quite healthy considering that all of the moving averages are still trending higher, market structure remains firmly intact, and the volume indications continue to support the bulls so buying dips is still the play moving forward.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the $58k – $60k area with a shorter-term target around $65k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart for a view of the medium-term outlook where we can see that price moved swiftly up into the ATH supply area over the past 48 hours thus keeping market structure firmly bullish while all of the moving averages continue to rise and the volume indications support generally higher prices moving forward, obviously good news for the bulls as Q4 really gets going. That said, price is reacting negatively in the supply area for the time being while RSI could use a recharge and MACD shows a bearish divergence so a few days of choppy consolidation is likely before the bulls truly try to challenge the all-time highs from earlier this year.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $60k for longer-term upside to around $120k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continued its multi-month downtrend over the past 24 hours moving into the intermediate-term demand area below 0.0043 as expected, and fortunately for the bulls the reaction so far has been fairly encouraging given a bullish rejection out of the zone earlier today. The fact that RSI and Willy are both officially oversold now while MACD continues to paint a bullish divergence is also good for the bulls moving forward, although we’re not anticipating much more than a countertrend bounce while BTC takes a breather considering we still don’t see any convincing signs of a sustainable bottom (hence we’ll leave powder dry for lower levels).
Trade Idea: Buy weakness into the 0.0040 – 0.0043 area for a shorter-term target in the 0.0050 region. Longer-term target resides around the 0.010 level.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD appears to be trying to carve out a short-term bottom in this $270 area which would be great news for the bulls considering this would be a medium-term higher low and would keep price above the still rising 100 SMA all while the volume indications continue to slowly improve. On the other hand, the momentum oscillators remain lackluster, market structure remains highly uncertain for now, and price is still trapped between the 50 and 200 SMAs which tells us that more consolidation is likely with the possibility of wicks down into the $250’s so we’re staying cautious for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $255 for shorter-term upside to the $305 region and longer-term upside to around $1000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
It’s been a rough week for the DERO/BTC bulls considering that price has been moving lower on bearish candle formations that have confirmed a break of shorter-term market structure as well as the rounded top that we’ve been discussing for the past few weeks, and now the 50 SMA has been broken too so the environment remains challenging for the bulls heading into next week. Having said that, support gets much stronger around the rising 100 SMA and the top of the OTE long zone around 0.00031 while the momentum oscillators become more favorable and the volume indications begin to reverse so we still expect a sustainable reversal around or slightly below the 0.00030 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips into the 0.00028 – 0.00031 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.00040 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
TradingView Kucoin DERO/USDT daily linear chart
DERO/USDT has seen some volatility materialize over the past 24 hours thus sparking a textbook long-legged doji candle that signals a large degree of uncertainty in the marketplace at this time, and given that the near-term trend has generally been lower we think that the bias is still slightly to the downside at this time. The recharging momentum oscillators and weakening near-term volume indications also suggest that the bears still have the upper hand over the near-term, however all of the moving averages remain in steady longer-term uptrends and market structure remains firmly bullish overall so we want to be buyers of any weakness down to or below the $18 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below the $18 level for shorter-term upside back to $25. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC 4-hour linear chart
The more data we get on XEQ/BTC following the report last week, the better we can try to predict the path of least resistance moving forward, and for now it looks like sideways consolidation is here to stay for a while considering that price is settling in between key support and resistance lines as well as moving averages above and below the market on a hodgepodge of candle formations and highly uncertain short-term market structure. The lackluster RSI and OBV readings also suggest more consolidation moving forward, although we remain very bullish long-term due to favorable fundamentals, rising moving averages, and intact longer-term market structure.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000750 for upside to the 0.00001000 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD 12-hour linear chart
XEQ/USD appears to have found fair value around $0.50 for the time being considering that price has coiled into the apex of a pennant/triangle pattern on a mishmash of candle formations and uncertain shorter-term market structure, and given the current state of the momentum and volume indications we think there is a fairly good chance that price continues to move sideways around this key $0.50 level over the coming days (thus extending the triangle). Given the magnitude of the rally last week we also still think that spikes to the downside to test the $0.30 – $0.40 area are not out of the question by any means over the shorter-term, although the rising moving averages and still firmly intact longer-term market structure are keeping us firmly bullish and in buy the dip mode until further notice.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.50 for upside to the $1.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!