Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(October 11 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a slow news day that is also a US holiday coming out of a flat weekend, it is a bit of a surprise that the price action in the BTC markets is as bullish as it is until we take a look at the charts which look ready to take off to the upside over the next few weeks due to very favorable technicals overall. Granted we did get a bit of downside volatility on BitStamp late yesterday, but this only served to wash out leverage for a short period of time before the bulls came back to the party. Now price is getting close to the bottom of the $58k – $60k resistance area which is where we expect a pause or pullback to test near-term support, but from a longer-term perspective this rally still has a long way to go (likely to new ATHs in the not too distant future.)
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 4-hour chart today to begin this mid-October week as it remains the best view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price moved sharply lower yesterday thus breaking the ascending channel but also quickly recovered back into, and eventually above, the channel which is now acting as support given that price is above it, certainly good news for the bulls moving forward. Favorable market structure, rising moving averages, and encouraging momentum and volume indications also suggest a bullish bias over the coming week, likely up into the $58k – $60k region before some sellers return to the marketplace (which we’ve seen hints of over the past hour).
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $52k – $54k area with a shorter-term target around $60k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart again for a view of the medium-term setup where we can see that the rejected spike to the downside yesterday acted as a spring for higher prices today thus sparking a firmly bullish breakout candle that is confirming still intact short and medium-term market structure while the 200 SMA finally begins to rejoin the shorter-term MAs in a new uptrend, all very good news for the bulls for the remainder of this month. The favorable momentum oscillators and very encouraging CMF/OBV readings are also signs that the bulls are in full control moving forward, although price is getting closer to the bottom of the upper supply area around $60k which is where we’ll start to get a bit more cautious near-term.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $54k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has fallen off a cliff today moving down 6% on a firmly bearish candle formation that has confirmed already bearish short and medium-term market structure and is close to breaking longer-term structure as well while the shorter-term moving averages remain in steady downtrends, all of which suggests that even lower prices are likely before we see a sustainable bottom. The still discouraging momentum oscillators and bearish volume indications that show sellers persistently more active than buyers also point to a downside bias moving forward, likely to the intermediate-term demand area in the low-0.0040’s.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term target remains in the 0.010 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still moving lower following the TD 9 sell signal from last week and today we’re getting a red 2 below a red 1 on a very bearish candle formation that has broken below the 50 SMA, which is now beginning to trend lower, none of which is good news for the bulls over the shorter-term. The still bearish state of medium-term market structure, the increasingly discouraging volume indications, and the not yet recharged momentum oscillators are also suggesting that the bears are in control for now, so we’ll continue to wait for the $250 level before starting to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 region and longer-term upside to around $1000.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC 3-day linear chart
ARRR/BTC has stayed fairly stable over the past 24 hours which is quite good news in the face of a torrid BTC rally to the upside today which means that the upper demand line and the still slowly rising 200 SMA remain both remain intact while RSI moves into officially oversold territory, so there are still some rays of hope for the bulls in the 0.00003000’s. The still in-play bullish MACD divergence is also saying that there is a chance of a bottom around the 0.00003000 level, although we need to stay prepared for a breakdown below there leading to an acceleration to the downside so we’re keeping sizing (risk) to a minimum until we get signs of a bottom.
Trade Idea: Buy dips into the 0.00003000 – 0.00003300 area for shorter-term upside to the 0.00005000 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.00050000.
TradingView Kucoin ARRR/USDT daily linear chart
While the current candle formation on ARRR/USDT has gone green as we approach the daily close in a few hours, the formation itself is fairly bearish, as is shorter-term market structure, while the 100 SMA slowly joins the 50 SMA in a downtrend, so the bulls remain on the defensive despite price being in the demand area. The momentum oscillators also don’t look too great for now considering that RSI is not recharged and MACD is close to crossing below its zero-line, therefore we need to stay on the sidelines until the $2.00 area where support should be a bit stronger.
Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $2.00 – $2.05 area for shorter-term upside to $2.50. Longer-term target resides around $50.
Equilibria (XEQ) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre XEQ/BTC daily linear chart
With the release of the XEQ report earlier today we’ll take our first look at this new TCV asset from a technical perspective where we can see that the breakout is underway on firmly bullish candle formations, bullish short, medium, and long-term market structure, very encouraging volumes, and rising moving averages, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. We also like the fact that support in the upper demand area has already been tested, and we like that the move has been more subdued than previous releases which tells us that perhaps this market is a bit more mature which should help negate a multi-month 80+% drawdown as we’ve seen in the past. That said, we do expect some sort of pullback to test the previous ATH around 0.00001000 before another substantial leg higher which is where we’ll add to positions if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00001000 for upside to the 0.00002200 area.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika XEQ/USD daily linear chart
XEQ/USD has doubled over the past 24 hours on the back of the TCV report release and looks poised for more near-term gains due to the bullish candle formation and recent confirmation of a shift to bullish long-term market structure while all of the moving averages begin to pick up steam to the upside, so we’re thinking that a continuation up to the $1.00 is quite possible before a legitimate pullback. That said, the $0.45 level needs to hold over the next few days to keep the sellers at bay else we’ll likely retest the $0.20 – $0.30 range before moving back to +$1 levels so uncertainty remains high while price exploration takes place (therefore keeping position size small is probably a good idea for now).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $0.50 for upside to the $1.00 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!