Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(October 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
As we head into the weekend trade following a very good week for the bitcoin markets that included the approval of a crypto-related ETF that many think is a precursor to approval for a real ETF in the near future, the shorter-term technicals aren’t looking too great despite a spike up to new local and regional highs earlier today. While a pullback to test support in the $49k – $52k range is becoming increasingly likely over the near-term, we think this will simply be a healthy recharge before more upside later in the month.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price made new local and regional highs earlier today but the move was quickly rejected back to the downside thus sparking a bearish candle formation and swing failure pattern that has pushed price back down to the $54k area as we head towards the daily close. Support also remains thin below the market and momentum could use some more recharging, so there’s likely to be a slight bearish bias over the next few days, although we would use weakness down to the $50k area as an opportunity to accumulate more before strength returns later in the month.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $49k – $51k area with a shorter-term target in the $60k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart where we can see that the rejected spike higher earlier today has sparked a bearish shooting star candle formation on a TD 9 sell signal while the 200 SMA continues to move lower and the CMF is heading back to the downside, so for now the bears have a bit of ammo to work with. The fact that MACD is rolling over while RSI could use more of a recharge also suggests that the bulls will need to play defense this weekend, however the rising shorter-term moving averages and the improving OBV reading are signs that this dip should eventually be bought as the medium-term uptrend is likely to continue after we see another new higher low.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $50k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to ride the lower wedge trendline to the downside on a series of bearish daily candles that are keeping short and medium-term market structure bearish while the shorter-term moving averages continue to fall, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the coming days. The very discouraging OBV reading and an increase in exchange volumes are also bad signs for the bulls moving forward, hence we’ll continue to wait for the 0.0050 level before considering getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0050 for longer-term upside to the 0.0100 target.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has been under some selling pressure over the past 24 hours following a swing failure to the upside yesterday that sparked the first bearish candle formation in almost a week while we get a TD 9 sell signal heading into the daily close today, so it’s time for the bulls to be cautious over the near-term. The tick lower in the A/D line and weakening momentum oscillators are also signs of near-term exhaustion on the part of the bulls, hence we’ll wait for lower prices before adding to positions, however still bullish moving averages and strong support in the $230 – $250 area suggest that we should be buying if the market gets down to those levels.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $250 for shorter-term term upside to the $305 region and longer-term upside to around $1000.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the BSV/BTC bulls we still don’t see any signs of a conclusive end to the current downtrend that price has been in since late May despite the move higher earlier in the week given that the still falling 50 SMA stopped the rally in its tracks and now we’re seeing some more bearish candles develop heading into the weekend, so we need to stay on the sidelines until further notice. The falling longer-term moving averages, bearish market structure, and lackluster momentum and volume indications also point to a continuation of the bearish bias over the medium-term, again suggesting that we need to continue to preserve capital until we get signs of a sustainable bottom.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT is starting to hit some turbulence at the bottom of the lower supply area late this week thus causing some less than stellar candle formations to develop while medium-term market structure remains highly uncertain and price remains trapped between flatlining moving averages above and below the market, all suggesting that near-term downside to the $150 area is likely but also that the medium-term range trade between ~$100 – $200 is likely to remain intact for the foreseeable future. The current state of the momentum oscillators confirms this view, although the OBV reading is fairly encouraging longer-term so we’ll continue to watch for signs of a reversal/sustainable bottom back in the demand area below $140.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Kucoin DERO/BTC daily linear chart
Today we’re switching to the Kucoin DERO/BTC chart for consistency across assets and we can see that a rounded top appears to be forming around the 0.00050 level which has turned near-term market structure bearish while the OBV reading continues to trend lower, all fairly discouraging signs for the bulls moving forward. The falling CMF reading and lackluster momentum oscillators also suggest that the bulls are losing strength for now, hence we’re expecting a test of support in the 0.00040 area while the door remains open to 0.00030 before the bulls get truly active again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00040 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00050 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
We’re also switching over to the Kucoin DERO/USDT chart today where we can see that a TD 9 sell signal is painting as we get very close to the daily close following a bearish candle formation yesterday that has sparked a new supply area overhead, all pointing to a fairly challenging environment for the bulls over the shorter-term. The fact that RSI has topped out while CMF goes back below its zero-line also suggests that the bias is likely to the downside moving into the weekend, although all of the moving averages continue to trend higher, the volume indications remain encouraging overall, TD support has emerged in the $18 area, and the OTE long zone lies between $18 – $20 which we think would be a nice zone to start getting active on the long side again (at least for a short-term bounce).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $20 for upside to the $29 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!