Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Okt 3 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
What a weekend and start to October it’s been for the bitcoin and crypto bulls considering that not only has BTC moved back up to the high-$40k’s but has also been consolidating in bullish fashion over the past 24 hours which suggests that there is still more room to the upside in this move. The longer-term charts are also looking very promising as we begin Q4, and the regulatory environment appears to be getting less hawkish for now, so we’re sticking with the call for a broad crypto rally as we get deeper into Autumn (albeit with spurts of downside volatility from time to time).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
It’s been quite a turnaround on the 4-hour chart over the past few days as a bounce out of the upper demand area led to an impulse to the upside on Friday that turned shorter-term market structure bullish while also reversing the moving averages out of their downtrends, certainly good news for the bulls to start October. The fact that price just broke out of a bullish pennant while the A/D line continues to rise is also positive for the bulls, hence we think a run at the $51k area is likely over the near-term, although momentum could use a recharge and this is the third drive higher of this rally so we would not be surprised to see a test of the 200 SMA in the $44k – $46k area before new highs above $53k are explored.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips into the $44k – $46k area with a shorter-term target in the $51k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Given we’re only a matter of hours from the weekly close we’ll zoom out to the weekly chart above for a view of the longer-term technicals where we can see that a bullish engulfing candle has developed that looks similar to the previous one in the green circle that led to a 75+% return in less than two months, so things are certainly looking up for the bulls heading in the final quarter of the year. The fact that all of the moving averages continue to rise, the momentum oscillators are trending higher with plenty of room to run, and the volume indications support more upside moving forward as well are all supportive of new all-time highs too in the not too distant future (possibly $100k+ over the next few months).
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has recently been moving to the downside once again following some minor strength late last workweek thus keeping the medium-term falling wedge intact while the shorter-term moving averages continue to fall and the momentum and volume indications leave much to be desired, all suggesting that the bearish bias is likely to remain intact over the shorter-term. Having said that, support continues to build at the bottom of the OTE long zone and the top of the upper demand area while MACD is still painting a bullish divergence within the wedge so we think a breakout higher from this formation is likely but not over the near-term so we’re staying patient for the time being.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the short-term. Longer-term players can accumulate below 0.0055 for upside to the 0.0100 target.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD ended up breaking above the pennant formation over the past few days on the back of the BTC move higher thus turning near-term market structure positive while the 100 SMA slowly reverses to rejoin the 200 SMA in an uptrend, so there are some green shoots emerging for the bulls at this time (despite the underperformance of the BTC pair). The rising momentum oscillators and improving volume indications are also encouraging signs for the bulls moving forward, although supply area and moving average resistance around $275 is likely to put a stop to the near-term strength (at least for a short while) so that is where we would take some profits.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $240 for shorter-term term upside to the $275 region and longer-term upside to around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC is finally trying to break above the descending channel that price has been in since the beginning of September on some bullish candle formations that are now above the reversing 50 SMA while the 100 SMA picks up steam to the upside and the 200 SMA remains in a steady uptrend, all of which bodes well for the bulls as we move towards year-end. The recharged momentum oscillators, the bullishly divergent MACD, steady volume indications, and intact and improving market structure are also good signs for the bulls, so while more consolidation below 0.075 is likely over the near-term higher prices above 0.080 are also likely once this sideways period is over in a week or two.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.070 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Binance ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has shot to the upside over the past few days on some bullish candle formations that have confirmed a shift back to bullish near-term market structure, and now price is consolidating above the 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher, all good news for the bulls as October gets going. The recharged and rising momentum oscillators and the still favorable volume indications also suggest that the bulls have the upper hand moving forward, although resistance gets much stiffer from current levels up to $4000 so we expect a slow grind higher over the coming days as opposed to another sharp rise above resistance.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $3000 for longer-term upside to the $10,000 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC is currently finding support at the dotted green line we drew a few weeks ago which is keeping medium-term market structure intact while all of the moving averages continue to move to the upside, so the short-term outlook for the bulls is already improving. The steady OBV reading, a reversing MACD, and a lack of overhead resistance are also suggesting that the bulls are getting back in the game at these levels, as does the current candle formation, however RSI remains in a short-term downtrend and is still fairly overbought so we’re expecting more consolidation in the mid to high-0.00030’s heading into the upcoming week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00040 for upside to the 0.00055 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
As price action in DERO/BTC continues to develop during this consolidation period it’s looking more and more like the spike down to the $16 area last week was indeed the local and regional low considering the bullish pennant/triangle that has developed as well as the bullish candle formation today that has take price to the upper trendline. The still-rising moving averages and very encouraging OBV reading are also good signs for the bulls moving forward, although momentum is fairly mixed for now so we would not be surprised to see a bit more consolidation within the pennant before an attempt at our $26 price target.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $18 for upside to the $26 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!