Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Sep 28 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With US bond yields rising and equities taking a big hit to the downside, it comes as no surprise that the crypto markets are under some selling pressure as well given their “risk-on” classification, however we’ve yet to see new lows in bitcoin and the technicals are still fairly supportive of the bulls in this $40k region from a longer-term perspective so we’ll continue to be interested in this area for the still anticipated year-end rally. Having said that, if the $40k level itself is broken with conviction this week then we’ll need to wait for the $37 – $39 area before trying to catch the bottom of this correction again so patience is currently a virtue.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 4-hour chart today for a view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has moved back down into the OTE long zone and has tagged the top of the demand area but is once again finding support around 41k which has sparked a fairly bullish candle formation heading into its close. The fact that the A/D line remains elevated is also a positive sign for the bulls despite the recent weakness, however falling and not yet recharged momentum oscillators, bearish moving averages, and worrisome market structure are keeping us cautious and on the sidelines until more near-term certainty emerges.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the shorter-term with buy targets in the $37k – $39k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll look at the daily chart where we can see that price is consolidating between the rising 100 SMA and the falling 200 SMA within what appears to be a bearish pennant while the 50 SMA begins to head lower as well, none of which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The declining OBV, a reversal in the CMF, and a lackluster RSI are also bad signs for the bulls right now, although if they can defend the 100 SMA around $40k over the next 24 hours then the MACD divergence and bullish medium-term market structure will likely start to positively impact the market more later in the week which we’ll keep an eye on for tomorrow’s CMU video.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to find support in the 0.0055’s to start this last week of September which makes the past few weeks look more like accumulation than distribution, and the still intact falling wedge supports the idea of an increasingly bullish price action moving forward. The recharged momentum oscillators, bullishly divergent MACD, and stabilizing OBV are also positive signs for the bulls, however there is heavy resistance between 0.0058 and 0.0060 so we’ll see some bearish turbulence there even if a breakout higher is coming in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0055 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0060 area. Continue to hold longer-term positions for the 0.0100 target.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Much like BTC/USD, XMR/USD is consolidating between key support and resistance levels within a bearish pennant/symmetrical triangle on a hodge-podge of candle formations, broken market structure, and bearish shorter-term moving averages so caution is warranted in this one over the near-term. The falling A/D line and lackluster momentum oscillators are also flashing warning signs for now, however a textbook bullish divergence on MACD and a still rising 200 SMA are keeping hopes alive for the bulls despite the possibility of a wick down to the $200 region before the bulls get active once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for longer-term upside to around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC continues to trend lower within the descending channel after having been rejected at the now falling 50 SMA once again thus sparking some bearish candles recently while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge, all of which will keep downward pressure on price over the near-term. That said, the rising 100 SMA and channel bottom in the 0.065 should help stop the bleeding for the time being, but even if not there is a ton of confluence in the 0.060 – 0.062 region which we think would be a fantastic buying opportunity heading into the seasonally bullish Q4 time period.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.065 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 area.
TradingView Binance ETH/USD daily linear chart
As opposed to the bearish pennants we’ve seen on other charts today, ETH/USD appears to be consolidating within a bearish flag/channel meaning there is more volatility indicating heightened uncertainty around current levels while market structure remains broken from a shorter-term perspective, so the bears do still have a slight upper hand for now. That said, they need to take advantage of this opportunity very quickly or else the still rising and supportive longer-term moving averages, the recharged momentum oscillators, and the bullishly divergent MACD will give the bulls quite a bit of ammo heading into the end of the week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2800 for longer-term upside to the $10,000 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC has been in a near-term downtrend over the past several days on a series of firmly bearish candle formations that are putting pressure on shorter-term market structure while MACD crosses below its zero-line and RSI continues to recharge from a very overbought condition, so we’re thinking there is likely more downside into the 0.00030’s this week before a recovery hence we’re leaving powder dry for slightly lower prices moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00036 for upside to the 0.00055 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD bulls couldn’t keep the upward momentum going from last week which has led to a steady near-term downtrend to new local lows on bearish candle formations and broken market structure while MACD breaks below its zero-line, all of which suggests that the bears are still in control for now. Having said that, RSI is recharging nicely, OBV remains relatively strong, all of the moving averages continue to rise, and support is building between $14 – $16 which is where we’ll add to longer-term positions if given the opportunity over the next few days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $16 for upside to the $26 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!