Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Sep 24 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following a nice rebound off of new regional lows earlier in the week, the bitcoin markets are under pressure once again today on news of yet another Chinese crackdown on crypto, this time stating that all virtual currency transactions are illegal. While this age-old crypto story continues to negatively affect the markets, impacts are diminishing as China becomes less and less a player in the real crypto economy, and so far no real technical damage has been done on this move to the downside so we’re staying cautiously optimistic heading into the last weekend of September.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
Let’s begin with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technical setup where we can see that price moved lower earlier today on a large bearish candle formation that came all the way down into the OTE long zone and upper demand area before price stabilized, and since then the bulls have been trying to reclaim the $42k level heading into the afternoon session. So far it has been a pretty even match between the bulls and the bears, and we expect this $42k battleline to remain in play over the weekend, however recharged momentum oscillators and volume indications that suggest the dip has been bought have us leaning towards a slight upward bias into the low-$43ks over the weekend.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and right now the bears have the upper hand overall considering that today’s candle formation is pretty bearish, shorter-term market structure is still broken, and the 200 SMA is now heading downward, therefore we need to stay cautious until we have a confirmed bottom via a higher high above $48,834. Right now we’re still leaning towards the $39,573 lows as being sustainable but cannot rule out the mid to high-$30k’s before a true reversal, so we don’t want to get aggressive on the long side until we have more evidence/confirmation that the lows are in.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Since our CMU video on Wednesday, XMR/BTC has moved to the upside a bit off of the lower wedge trendline but the bulls have once again failed to sustain this momentum and now price is heading back to the downside as we move into the weekend, so our forecast for a continued slow grind lower within the wedge remains intact until further notice. The weak volume indications, lackluster momentum oscillators, and falling shorter-term moving averages all confirm this view, although the falling wedge is a bullish longer-term pattern so we’ll continue to watch for signs of strength as we get closer to the formation’s apex.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the shorter-term, but continue to hold longer-term positions for the 0.0100 target.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved back down to the top of the OTE long zone this morning on a discouraging candle formation that is keeping shorter-term market structure bearish while the falling 100 SMA acts as resistance and the volume indications remain lackluster overall, so we’re staying very cautious over the upcoming weekend. Having said that, the momentum oscillators continue to look pretty good and we are in an area of significant historical support so we’ll continue to be longer-term buyers on moves down to and certainly below $200.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for longer-term upside to around $1000.
Decred (DCR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance DCR/BTC 3-day linear chart
It’s been a while since we looked at DCR/BTC, and we can see that it’s been a rough go of it for the bulls over the past several weeks following the breakdown out of the triangle that shattered medium-term market structure and resulted in a series of bearish candle formations that are likely to continue into this weekend, so the bears are in control until further notice. The falling 50 SMA also suggests more near-term downside pressure on price, however support in the 0.0023 area is very strong so we would begin to get active on the long side again if we can get down to those levels.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0024 for upside to the 0.0032 area.
TradingView Binance DCR/USD 3-day linear chart
DCR/USD remains in the hands of the bears for now as price was recently rejected near the rising 100 SMA thus sparking a bearish candle formation heading into the weekend while shorter-term market structure remains broken and the 50 SMA continues to fall. The still recharging momentum oscillators and the reversing A/D line are also suggesting that the bias is still to the downside for now, however support in the $90 region is likely to hold once again so that is where we’ll keep powder dry for should we get a shot at it moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $100 for upside to the $150 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
There is no stopping the DERO/BTC bulls right now following a clean breakout above the previous regional resistance range over the past few days on bullish candle formations and increasingly bullish market structure while the moving averages all accelerate to the upside and OBV confirms the move, all of which suggests higher prices over the coming days. The lack of resistance until the OTE short zone overhead is also good for the bulls over the near-term, however momentum is overbought and divergent so we expect to see sellers return around the 0.00055 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00043 for upside to the 0.00055 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD never gave us the shot in the OTE long zone that we were hoping for, and it looks like we won’t get it going forward either considering the bullish market structure and favorable moving averages that will likely continue to push the market higher over the shorter-term. The favorable OBV reading and still encouraging momentum oscillators also point to further upside this weekend into early next week with our target being the sweet spot of the OTE short zone from the Fibonacci extension around the $27 level.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $18 for upside to the $27 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!