Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Aaaaaand, we’re back! After two weeks of phenomenal coverage of the cryptocurrency markets by Mr. A, Mr. W is back at the office and back at the charts. While there’s obviously been volatility in the $40k’s during the break, the resilience of the market in the $42k – $44k zone has been encouraging up until today considering the 60-day cycle timing this week. Having said that, global financial jitters regarding China’s real estate market and short-term technical weakness are likely to keep downward pressure on price over the course of this week so we’re staying highly cautious at this time.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start out with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals which suggest that the bears are currently in control as a series of large bearish candle formations took price to the bottom of the medium-term trading range today where a new regional low formed before the market stabilized, so we need to stay very cautious for the time being. The falling 100 SMA, the almost confirmed 50/200 SMA death cross, and weak momentum oscillators are also pointing to a near-term bearish bias, hence we’re expecting further downside to near $40k before a sustainable bottom develops.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the daily chart for a broader view of the technical setup where we can see that the nasty bearish candle today has broken below both the 50 and 200 SMAs and is close to confirming a break of short-term market structure, all quite worrisome signs for the bulls moving forward this week. The discouraging OBV and CMF readings and the bearish momentum oscillators are also suggesting a continued bearish bias over the shorter-term, although a strong support confluence is forming consisting of the bottom of the OTE long zone, the top of the upper demand area, and the rising 100 SMA all in the $40 – $42k region which is where we’ll start to get active on the long side once again.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
Yet another in a long line of disappointments by and for the XMR/BTC bulls over the past few weeks was the failure to defend the Inverse Head & Shoulders that was forming early in the month which led to downside below 0.0055 recently thus breaking medium-term market structure once again while the current candle formations come in bearish at the bottom of the OTE long zone, all very bad signs for the bulls over the shorter-term. The falling 50 and 100 SMAs, the discouraging volume indications, and the not yet recharged momentum oscillators also suggest further downside from current levels, likely to test the summer cycle lows from May in the mid to high-0.0040’s.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral over the short-term, but continue to hold longer-term positions for the 0.0100 target.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has been under serious selling pressure all day which has sparked a large bearish candle formation heading into the daily close that is also breaking medium-term market structure in addition to the 100 SMA, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The downright scary volume indications and the bearish momentum oscillators also spell trouble for the bulls this week, although there is a lot of support developing around and below the key $200 level which is where we’ll start to think about getting actively long once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for longer-term upside to around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
After getting fairly deep into the upper supply area early in the month, ETH/BTC since been pulling back inside of what appears to be a descending channel that could very well be a bull flag or the handle of a Cup & Handle continuation pattern while the longer-term moving averages remain favorable and market structure is still intact, all good news for the bulls despite the recent weakness. The steady A/D line is also a good sign for the bulls from a slightly longer-term perspective, however still weak momentum oscillators and a break of the 50 SMA today both point to more near-term weakness into the low to mid-0.060’s.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.065 for longer-term upside to the 0.10 area.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has gotten slaughtered today on a large bearish candle formation that has broken shorter-term market structure as well as the 50 SMA while the volume indications deteriorate and the momentum oscillators remain weak, so it appears as though the near-term path of least resistance remains lower at this point. Having said that, there is a very nice support confluence developing in the $2500 – $2600 area consisting of the rising 100 and 200 SMAs, the upper demand area, and the top of the OTE long zone so that’s where we’ll start to get interested again on the long side moving forward.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2600 for longer-term upside to the $10,000 area.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC has been almost bulletproof over the past few weeks climbing out of its previous trading range on strong candle formations and a confirmation of a regime shift to bullish medium-term market structure, and now price is testing the previous bull-trap highs while all of the moving averages continue to rise, so the longer-term outlook is still very positive for the bulls. That said, some bearish price action at resistance, a very overbought RSI reading, a bearishly divergent MACD, and a slight downtick in OBV are all suggesting that a shorter-term pullback to the 0.00034 area is likely before the bulls return for more fun.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00035 for upside to the 0.00060 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD has had a heck of a run recently reaching new highs above $22 on strong candle formations that have confirmed bullish longer-term market structure while all of the moving averages continue to trend higher and the OBV reading remains highly encouraging. That said, a bearish candle formation today, a still overbought and falling RSI, and a discouraging MACD all point to more downside to the $14 – $16 area where a support confluence is forming that is likely to stop the current bleeding.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $16 for shorter-term upside to the $20 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!