Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook

(sep 11 – 2021)

Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook

Bitcoin continues to consolidate against the lows after the correction from the $51.6k resistance level we were looking at for two weeks.  The news cycle remains slow for now, so what happens in this consolidation after the bullish correction continues to be driven by technicals and on-chain fundamentals.  On-chain analysis shows the fear phase has already passed with whales and smart money already accumulating the weakness in price.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart

The weekly chart closed last week on a green TD 7 candle with a higher high.  This perfected our TD series, setting the stage for a 1-4 week correction when the count finally completed itself.  This occurred very quickly as the TD 8 candle made a nominal higher high, creating a bull trap top at the resistance area we have been identifying for 2 weeks. It immediately corrected down very quickly and violently into the $42k support area like a classic bullish correction.  This weekly candle is now a red TD 1, showing us the 1-4 week correction is now in play.  In addition, the candle is a nasty orange pivot that will strengthen the bearish bias into the next couple of weeks unless the bulls can push prices up and close this week without the orange pivot.  Stochastic RSI is red and flashing sell signals, RSI is trending down from overbought and MACD is turning down.  All these things are necessary for a cool down period after a 7-week bull run from the bottom.  On the positive side, Squeeze Momentum is still trending up into zero line and will cross green in the near future.  This tells us downside will be more limited and this theory is supported by the CMF, which continues to show more dollars flowing into bitcoin at the weekly scale.  We can and should expect one more move to the downside before this is over.  The weekly 50 SMA is now at the $37k support zone and it should hold the price up if we get one last scary move to the downside.  We have been preparing for this move for 50 days now, so everyone should be ready to buy this dip.  It will be the final opportunity at lower prices before the market moves into a fully bullish stance in the Fall and Winter.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart

The daily chart remains bearish as it consolidates against the support in the $42k area.  We are now in a red TD 4 candle in what looks like a bearish flag formation with a purple breakdown candle as the pole. The 50/200 day SMA Golden Cross is coming up over the next couple of days and it is labeled by the yellow circle with green inside it.  This is a bullish signal and it is very common for a bullish Golden Cross to attract prices towards it, even a little below it before it snaps things up into a fully bullish stance.  The purple 128 day SMA is still trending down below the other moving averages at about $40k and it should provide some level of support on a first touch.  StochRSI, RSI, MACD, iFish are all trending down and have not yet bottomed.  The CMF is about to flip negative as dollars exit bitcoin.  The $37k area remains the ultimate buy the dip zone and it really is best if we remain slightly above it.  A higher low above this area will confirm the intermediate trend change from bearish to bullish and help propel BTC to the upside once all indicators finish cooling off.

TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart

The 4-hour chart shows  a lot of red candles in this consolidation area inside the sandy beach support zone.  We had our TD 9 and iFish buy signals to enter, but the follow through by the bulls has not occurred.  Shorter term traders who are following our signals from the 4-hour chart trade ideas should continue to hold the positions we bought from the large correction and scale into the green arrows as we move lower.  Buying the more extreme moves to the downside in the blue ocean area will continue to be a great location for both short term traders and long term investors to enter Bitcoin positions.

Trade Idea:  Scale in at $44.3k, $41.3k, $38.9k, $38.1k for the longer term move to $100k. 

Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook

XMR/BTC

TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart

The daily XMR/BTC chart remains in a sideways chop stance even after the large correction earlier this week.  This chop has a bearish bias as the 50 SMA has now crossed the rising 200 SMA in a death cross.  StochRSI has bottomed but Moneros continue to flow out of the Bitcoin pair while MACD and Squeeze Momentum make lower lows.  We will continue to accumulate these lower levels in anticipation of the upcoming bull market in the Fall and Winter

Trade idea: Long term investors can accumulate at 0.0053 and 0.0050 levels. 

XMR/USDT

TradingView Binance XMR/USDT daily linear chart

The XMR/USDT daily remains in a bearish stance while it consolidates against the lows.  It is very similar to the Bitcoin chart technicals at this time with the upcoming 50/200 SMA Golden Cross. At the same time, the 128 SMA is creating a death cross in this area making things more uncertain.  The longer term bull market remains in effect and it should resolve to the upside once king Bitcoin is finished with the cooling off period.

Short term trade idea:  Scale in with buy orders at $250, and $238 and $217 and $201

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ETH/BTC

Tradingview Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart

ETH/BTC topped out on an imperfected series green TD 6 candle top before it began the slide down.  Today it is painting an orange pivot candle on a red TD 6. Indicators are all cooling off, while we can see some hidden strength as the CMF shows serious amounts of Bitcoin continue to flow into ETH.  Buyers are accumulating this dip.  The 50 SMA at 0.068 is the most optimal place to start accumulating and given ETH’s strength, this may be all we get from this correction.  The green box would be the optimal place to buy and this area should definitely be bought if we can even make it down there with this current strength.

Trade idea:  Start accumulating near 0.068.  Scale in further at 0.066, 0.064 and 0.061 for the final bull market phase.

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook

ETH/USD

Tradingview ETH/USDT daily linear chart

The ETH/USDT topped out on a perfected green TD 7 candle before the TD 9 purple breakdown candle came and provided the massive correction. We are now in a red TD 4 working our way down into support zones and a likely TD 9 bottom. CMF also showing a major inflow of dollars like the BTC pair, as buyers continue to accumulate this weakness.  If we get a scary wick down into the mid $2000’s, this dip should most definitely be bought for our final bull run phase.

Trade idea:  Start accumulating at $3075.  Scale in further at $2960 and $2761 and $2500 for long term holding.

Summary

The next 10 days are going to be a key phase in the crypto markets.  We have prepared everyone for this scary move to the downside for weeks, so remain calm, keep your positions and add more during this opportunity.

Good Luck, Good Trading!