Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On a mixed news day that includes headlines that billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson calls crypto a bubble and bitcoin worthless while at the same time FTX.US receives CFTC approval for US-based crypto derivatives, it comes as no surprise that price is languishing in the $47k region. The technicals also aren’t cooperating right now, thus uncertainty is increasing as to what materializes over the next few weeks, so we want to stay cautious heading into September as well as the upcoming holiday weekend.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First, we’ll take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price has been bleeding to the downside over the past couple of days after failing to get back above $50k last weekend, a sign that the medium-term uptrend is done for now, and appears to be forming a bearish descending triangle which is not great news for the bulls moving forward. The break of the 50 SMA yesterday, increasingly worrisome near-term market structure, and still recharging momentum oscillators also point to a challenging environment for the bulls heading into September, although the longer-term moving averages are still rising and supportive, the OTE long zone and upper demand area are just below the market, and the volume indications don’t show much selling for now so downside is likely limited to the $45 – $46k area over the near-term.
Short-term Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and for now market structure remains bullish and all of the moving averages continue to move higher, good news longer-term, although price action has turned more bearish here in the lower supply area which is making shorter-term market structure increasingly bearish. The rather discouraging momentum and volume indications and the lack of technical or historical support below the 200 SMA are also concerning signs for the bulls moving forward, so if the $45k – $46k area of support cannot hold then we’re likely headed down to the $40 – $42k region where the 50 SMA and top of the upper demand area reside.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $42k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC is still hovering just above the top of the OTE long zone and along the 50 and 200 SMAs on mixed candle formations and still uncertain market structure while the momentum and volume indications continue to stagnate, all suggesting more choppy consolidation around the 0.0060 level over the near-term. Having said that, it is looking more and more like an Inverse Head & Shoulders could be developing right at support which would be a very good sign for the bulls heading into fall so we’ll keep accumulating in the mid to high-0.0050’s when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD remains firmly inside of the bull flag that we drew last week and is now starting to find some support at the top of the short-term OTE long zone thus keeping market structure intact for now while the moving averages continue to rise, so things don’t look too bad for the bulls overall. Having said that, weak momentum and volume indications and increasingly bearish technicals for BTC/USD have us thinking that we’re likely to see a test of the $250 – $270 area before the bulls return to the marketplace.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $270 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
Things are starting to look very good for the ETH/BTC bulls this week as price has been rallying sharply higher on firmly bullish candle formations while medium-term market structure remains intact and the shorter-term moving averages begin to pick up steam to the upside again after acting as support at 0.065, so further upside appears likely moving forward. The still-rising 200 SMA, encouraging volume indications, and bullish momentum oscillators also point to an upside bias over the shorter-term, likely up to our target/resistance line at 0.075.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.070 for shorter-term upside to the 0.075 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.10.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD has finally popped above the bottom of the OTE short zone today on a bullish candle formation that is confirming still bullish short and medium-term market structure while the moving averages are stacking and rising, so the bulls are certainly in control for the time being. The favorable volume indications support further upside as well over the near-term, likely up to our $3650 short-term target, however we do think a pullback materializes in that region due to heavy resistance and some concerning momentum oscillators so we’ll take some profits there if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $3200 for shorter-term upside to the $3650 area. Longer-term target remains around $10,000.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
WOW/BTC continues to move to the downside on bearish candle formations after topping out late last week which is putting pressure on shorter-term market structure while OBV retraces and the momentum oscillators recharge, all suggesting more downside before we can carve out a sustainable bottom. Having said that, the rising 200 SMA is about to cross above the almost bullish 100 SMA while the 50 SMA continues to accelerate to the upside, so we will be buyers of the dips into the support confluence between 0.00000650 and 0.00000750.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000750 for upside to the 0.00001100 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00004000 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/ USD has quickly plunged down to the upper demand area over the past few days on large and firmly bearish candle formations that are getting close to breaking medium-term market structure while OBV falls from its highs and momentum continues to recharge, so more downside is likely over the near-term. Having said that, if the bulls can defend the 0.40 level through the end of the week then the uptrend will be saved, but we have out doubts given the setup in BTC/USD therefore we’re looking for continuation down to the support confluence in the $0.30 area in order to add to positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.33 for upside to the $0.60 area. Longer-term target resides around $40.
Good Luck, Good Trading!