Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It’s been a range-bound but bumpy ride for the bitcoin markets over the past few days as rallies continue to get sold and dips continue to get bought, which is actually probably not a bad thing for the bulls heading into next week considering that the prevailing medium-term trend remains higher. Having said that, a persistent lack of market-moving news and the upcoming holiday weekend in the US (Labor Day) will likely keep the action muted for a while so we’re not expecting much movement in either direction over the shorter-term.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern has developed recently that portends a breakout to the upside in the near future, and it also bodes well for the bulls that price is back above the 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to rise too. The momentum and volume indications are also supportive of a move higher at some point this week, however resistance remains very stiff in the $51k – $52k area so upside is limited therefore we want to stay relatively cautious until we get the inevitable correction over with next month.
Short-term Trade Idea: Buy dips below $47k for shorter-term upside to the $51k level.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Given that the weekly close is in about 6 hours we’ll look at the weekly chart today where we can see that we still have a bit of a bearish candle formation forming that is sitting just below the bottom of the OTE short zone while historical and technical support remains thin below the market, so indeed caution is warranted heading into September. Conversely, all of the moving averages continue to trend higher, the momentum and volume indications remain favorable, and we’re still only on a TI 6 (of 9) so there’s likely another week or two of bullishness up into the $50k’s before a real pullback materializes next month.
Long-term Trade Idea: Accumulate below $45k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Poloniex XMR/BTC weekly linear chart
As XMR/BTC falls below the 0.0060 level today we’ll zoom out to the weekly chart where we can see that the rally early in the week was clearly rejected by the falling 50 and 100 SMAs overhead thus turning the current candle formation quite bearish while the 200 SMA continues to fall as well, none of which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The momentum and volume indications still don’t look that great either, hence a move back into the mid-0.005’s appears increasingly likely at some point this week, although we would continue to be buyers of dips due to the possibility of a double bottom in this region.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD is still consolidating downward within the bullish flag formation while market structure remains intact, the 200 SMA continues to rise, and the 50 SMA has crossed above the now bullish 100 SMA, all of which bodes well for the bulls longer-term. That said, candle formations are bearish for now, the momentum and volume indications leave something to be desired, and support is thin down to the $260 – $270 area which is where we think price is headed before the medium-term uptrend resumes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $270 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
BSV/BTC is starting to looking interesting on the long side for the first time in quite a while considering that price spiked up to the top of a large bullish falling wedge pattern and the 50 SMA yesterday on a firmly bullish candle formation and a large volume spike, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The still favorable momentum and volume indications should also help the bulls heading into September, although there is a ton of moving average and other technical resistances between current levels and the low-0.0040’s which is where we think upside is limited to over the shorter-term.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0034 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0043 area.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USDT daily linear chart
BSV/USDT has been moving higher over the past few days reaching the bottom of the lower supply area yesterday on a bullish candle that is keeping shorter-term market structure bullish while the 100 SMA slowly rejoins the 50 SMA in an uptrend, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The spike in volumes yesterday and the steady A/D line are also good signs for the bulls, although we expect a bit more consolidation around current levels over the near-term before a run at the $200 region later in the week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $160 for shorter-term upside to the $200 area.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has continued to struggle recently as expected, weakness that has turned shorter-term market structure bearish once again while candle formations are discouraging, the 100 SMA continues to fall, and the momentum oscillators are still recharging, all suggesting that the path of least resistance is still to the downside for now. The break below the 50 SMA today is also not great news for the bulls heading into this week, although there is a very strong support confluence forming in the mid-0.00007000’s that we think will be a great buying opportunity once we get there.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00007700 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00010000 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.0010 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has moved all the way back down to the $3.70 support level that we drew several weeks ago on mostly bearish candle formations and increasingly heavy shorter-term market structure while the momentum oscillators continue to recharge and OBV continues to bleed, not great news for the bulls moving forward this week. That said, medium-term market structure remains intact and the 50 SMA is about to rejoin the longer-term moving averages in an uptrend so we would be buying dips into the low to mid-$3.00’s if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $3.50 for shorter-term upside to the $5.00 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!