Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(Aug-23 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The bulls continue to control not only the price action in the bitcoin markets but also the broader narrative surrounding crypto as companies such as Visa begin to get involved in alternative assets such as NFTs. Meanwhile, the charts are still supportive of more upside over the near-term as a supply shortage continues to squeeze the bears, which also bodes well for the bulls longer-term. That being said, we do think this multi-week rally is close to reaching an exhaustion point so we’re comfortable sticking with our low-$50k’s target where a pullback is increasingly likely.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll start this final full week of August with a look at the 4-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price moved right up to the 250% Fibonacci extension level yesterday before beginning to consolidate as expected, which we think is yet another bullish pause before the next leg higher. The still-rising moving averages, favorable volume indications, and already recharging momentum oscillators support the idea of more upside over the next few days, although the resistance confluence in the middle of the OTE short zone around $51.6k appears to be a good place to lock in some profits before a real retracement.
LT Trade Idea: Buy dips below $49k for shorter-term upside to the $51.6k level.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also take a look at the daily chart where we can see that price moved up to new regional highs over the past 24 hours but has been rejected back to the downside as we approach the daily close thus sparking a fairly bearish candle formation, which is not great news for the bulls moving forward (hence our thinking that we’re close to a top of some kind). That said, the 100 SMA is about to rejoin the 50 and 200 SMAs in an uptrend, momentum does not look overbought, the volume indications remain steady, and market structure is still intact so we’ll default to the prevailing trend for now but with the expectation for a correction in the not too distant future.
LT Trade Idea: Accumulate below $44k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has been on the move over the past 24 hours moving from the mid-0.0050’s over the weekend to the 0.0060’s this afternoon on some very bullish price action that has helped market structure immensely (due to the still in play double-bottom), as has the still rising and supportive 200 SMA, all good news for the bulls. The improving momentum and volume indications and the reversing 50 SMA are also very positive signs for the bulls moving forward, although the falling 100 SMA around current prices is giving the bulls some trouble so a retest of the 0.0060 region may be in order before a legitimate run at the 0.0075 target.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD spiked all the way up to the $335 level earlier today thus confirming bullish short to medium-term market structure on huge volume and rising 50 and 200 SMAs while the 100 SMA begins to reverse back to the upside as well, all very good news for the bulls heading into Autumn. Having said that, the momentum oscillators are moving into overbought territory and there is a pretty nasty candle formation developing today so we wouldn’t be surprised to see a test of sub-$300 levels in the near future before exploring the mid to high-$300’s down the road.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $300 for upside to the $400 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
As Mr. A and I discussed in yesterday’s CMU video it was do or die time for the ETH/BTC bulls at the 0.065 level and so far they have stepped up to the challenge and have even gotten some upside momentum going heading into the daily close, all despite the nasty looking lower high and some bearish momentum oscillators. Now we have a bit of the bounce in the oscillators while the volume indications remain favorable and the moving averages all remain supportive, so a move above the 0.069 level over the next few days likely leads to a continuation up into the low to mid-0.070’s in short order.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.065 for shorter-term upside to the 0.075 area. The longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is trying its best to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level today on a fairly bullish candle formation that would confirm still bullish short to medium-term market structure while the rising 50 and 200 SMAs begin to move back above the slowly bottoming 100 SMA, all of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications also remain encouraging overall, however price is moving into a strong medium-term resistance patch while momentum remains overbought and divergent so we need to be ready for a pullback between current levels and the $3650 region.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $3000 for shorter-term upside to the $3600 area. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
Following a strong run to the upside, last week WOW/BTC has been pulling back to the downside over the past few days on bearish candle formations that are turning near-term market structure heavier while price gets very close to breaking below the still falling 100 SMA again, not great news for the bulls moving forward. The still relatively overbought RSI reading and a weak OBV are not helping matters for the bulls, however an MA/demand area support confluence resides around 0.00000750 so that’s where we’ll target to add to positions again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00000800 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00001000 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00004000 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika WOW/USD daily linear chart
WOW/USD is now pulling back to find support after a nice run up near the resistance line that we had drawn over a month ago, an expected move that will be healthy moving forward considering how overbought RSI remains. The volume indications still aren’t very convincing either, hence we think a continuation down to the low to mid-$0.30’s is likely before a resumption of the uptrend, although we’re not all that concerned about the longer-term outlook considering positive market structure and supportive moving averages so we’ll continue to buy dips into support when given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $0.35 for upside to the $1.00 area. Longer-term target resides around $40.
Good Luck, Good Trading!