Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It’s been a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears over the past few days with the bulls eking out slight gains above $48k heading into this week, so it appears as though the bulls still have a slight advantage for the time being. Having said that, the technicals are getting a bit concerning right now and the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen back to the “greed” level in short order over the past few weeks, so any upside is likely limited to the $50k region before a retracement back to support in the low-$40k’s (which could materialize at any time).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We want to return to the 4-hour chart once again to start this week for a view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that price is still struggling with the 200% Fibonacci extension level while market structure becomes a bit more concerning due to a potential double top, so a close below the 50 SMA around $45,900 over the next few days likely leads to a quick selloff into the low-$40k’s. Having said that, price action remains favorable for now, the volume indications are still encouraging, the momentum oscillators are already somewhat recharged, and all of the moving averages continue to rise, so we think there is a just as good of a chance that a spike up to the $50k area materializes before the test of support in the $42 – $43k region (therefore taking large bets around current prices is not advisable at this time).
ST Trade Idea: Buy dips below $44k for shorter-term upside to the $50k area.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next, we’ll focus on the weekly chart where we can see that the weekly candle closed quite bullish yesterday thus keeping the bias in the bulls favor for now while all of the moving averages continue to rise and market structure continues to improve, which is supportive of higher prices over the near-term before profit-taking sets in. The still strong volume indications and the support momentum oscillators also suggest that the bulls remain in control overall, however there is quite a bit of resistance between $49k – $51k and we need to establish new support via a higher regional low before thinking about all-time highs so we’re expecting some downside in the near future.
LT Trade Idea: Accumulate below $44k for longer-term upside to around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC had another disappointing weekend in terms of short-term price action although the bulls did manage to carve out the second low of a double bottom above the downtrend line and around the still rising 200 SMA, so we’re starting to get more positive on this one moving forward. The increasingly bullish momentum oscillators and the slowly improving volume indications also bode well for the bulls, at least over the shorter-term, although they will need to clear the 0.0066 level before we can call this move sustainable for the longer-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
After consolidating within a range for over a week, XMR/USD is finally starting to break above the flag formation thus confirming still intact bullish shorter-term market structure while the 50 and 200 SMAs continue to rise, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications also remain quite favorable, so our $300 target is certainly possible before a serious pullback, although we do think one is coming in the not too distant future considering the bearish momentum oscillators, still falling 100 SMA, and overhead psychological and historical resistance areas around the $300 level.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $270 for upside to the $300 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Chainlink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
We’ll turn to LINK/BTC today where we can see that a large textbook double bottom is shaping up that has taken almost 6 months to develop which means market structure is improving substantially while some bullish candles emerge, the current of which is testing the moving average confluence just overhead, all of which is very good news for the bulls from a medium to long-term perspective. Additionally, the favorable momentum oscillators, steady volume indications, and a lack of historical or technical resistance until much higher levels also bode well for the bulls, so it looks like there is room to run-up to the 0.00080 area over the coming days or perhaps few weeks.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00080 area. The longer-term target resides around 0.00160.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
LINK/USD has been on a tear to the upside over the past several weeks almost doubling in price in that time period on now bullish shorter-term market structure and a rising 50 SMA while price moves above the still rising 200 SMA as well, all of which bodes well for the bulls as the second half of 2021 progresses. The very encouraging volume indications are also supportive of a new bull market later this year, although overbought momentum oscillators and a somewhat bearish candle formation at resistance today are telling us to be wary of a pullback in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $25 for shorter-term upside to the $33 area. Longer-term target resides around $150.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to tread water in the middle of the shorter-term trading range on mixed market structure and a hodgepodge of candle formations while the momentum oscillators continue to leave something to be desired, so more of the same appears likely over the shorter-term. Having said that, all of the moving averages continue to rise, the volume indications remain quite strong, and a recent higher low has sparked the possibility of a bullish ascending triangle, therefore we think that the market is likely to break higher once this consolidation has run its course.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00028 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00044 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD continues to look incredibly bullish as price consolidates just below the previous highs within a bullish flag/pennant type formation that is also part of a larger Cup & Handle continuation pattern that implies an $18 initial target, all of which is very good news for the bulls moving forward. The rising moving averages, very bullish market structure, and favorable volume indications also suggest higher prices in the near future, although the momentum oscillators remain a bit concerning for now so a bit more near-term consolidation appears likely before a breakout.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $13 for shorter-term upside to the $18 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!