Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
After continuing to rally up to and above our $45k target yesterday, the bitcoin market has been slowly bleeding to the downside recently as profit-taking begins to take hold. We also have a resolution on the US Infrastructure bill that caused so much controversy due to some cryptocurrency amendments, so it makes sense for the market to take a breather over the near-term. That said, it sure looks like the summer swoon coming to an end and we’re setting up for a resumption of the longer-term halving cycle if we can put in a higher low above $37k over the next few weeks.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
First, we want to take a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price was dancing around our $45k target for most of the day yesterday before beginning to sell-off during the Asian session last night thus sparking some bearish candle formations today while support remains thin below the market, all suggesting a slight near-term downward bias. The increasingly bearish momentum oscillators and the downtick in the A/D line also point to some extra selling pressure over the next few days, although there is a nice support confluence between $40 – $42k which is where we’ll be looking to buy if given the opportunity.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next, we’ll turn to the trusty daily chart for the medium-term outlook where we can see that price broke above the still rising 200 SMA and the bottom of the lower supply area yesterday on a firmly bullish candle formation while market structure remains intact and the 50 SMA continues to rise, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The volume indications are also suggesting that more upside is likely this month, at least to the new $48k short-term target, however bearish momentum oscillators are keeping us cautious over the next day or two as near-term consolidation becomes increasingly likely.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $42k for shorter-term upside to the $48k area. Longer-term target resides around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/USD has unsurprisingly come back down into the OTE long zone and is now testing the broken downtrend line and the 200 SMA today on a very small doji candle while market structure remains very uncertain, all of which points to a high level of indecision by market participants. The stagnant momentum oscillators and lackluster volume indications also point to more sideways action over the course of this week, perhaps with a slight bearish bias down to the mid-0.0050’s due to the falling shorter-term moving averages overhead.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to 0.0075. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has done a whole lot of nothing over the past few days as price continues to consolidate between the rising 200 SMA and the falling 100 SMA on mixed candle formations and still messy market structure, so more consolidation in the mid-$200’s appears likely over the near-term. If we do see an increase in volatility over the coming days our thesis is that price moves down to our $240 target before rallying sharply above $300 shortly thereafter therefore we would be buyers of said dip if it comes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $240 for upside to the $310 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Huobi BSV/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll return to BSV/BTC for the first time in a while where we can see that price has been consolidating near all-time lows for the past several weeks on small but bearish candle formations and still very discouraging market structure while all of the moving averages remain in steady downtrends, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The lackluster momentum and volume indications aren’t helping matters for the bulls either, hence we need to be cognizant of the possibility of a severe breakdown below 0.0030 in the not too distant future, although an Adam & Eve double bottom could be forming around current levels that would target well above 0.0040 so shorting is prob not a great idea despite still elevated downside risks.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Huobi BSV/USD daily linear chart
BSV/USD has slowly crawled its way back to the $150 area over the past few weeks thus improving shorter-term market structure on mostly bullish candle formations while the 50 SMA reverses below the market, so it’s not all bad news for the bulls right now. Having said that, we think upside is limited to the $170 region where the market is likely to settle into a sideways consolidation for the remainder of the month, so neutrality remains the play unless a range trade develops between ~$130 – $170 over the next few weeks.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $135 for shorter-term upside to the $170 region.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
While ARRR/BTC hasn’t made much progress to the upside recently, the fact that the bulls have managed to keep price above the key support line at 0.0000895 for over two weeks while market structure continues to slowly improve is a good sign for them moving forward. The still-rising 200 SMA below the market and the steady OBV reading should also help the bulls as we move closer to the end of summer, although lackluster momentum oscillators and a falling 50 SMA both suggest a directionally challenged market over the shorter-term (meaning more sideways action around current levels).
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.000081 for shorter-term upside to the 0.000110 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD continues to carve out a very nice looking long-term frying pan bottom on improving market structure and more bullish longer-term moving averages, all while OBV remains favorable and momentum continues to recharge, all of which bodes very well for the bulls later in the year. That said, the falling 50 SMA overhead and the lackluster candle formations recently are likely to keep price around where it is now for at least a few days longer so we’ll stay patient and ready to buy dips as we have been for many months.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $3.35 for shorter-term upside to the $5.40 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!