Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
It’s been another surprisingly strong 24 hours for the bitcoin market as heavy technicals late yesterday were only able to push price back down to the low-$37k’s where we saw a swing failure pattern and a bullish reversal candle that has propelled price convincingly back above $40k today. News that JP Morgan is marketing a new bitcoin fund to wealthy clients is also helping the bulls keep the recent momentum going, however we really need to see a daily close above $42.6k over the next few days in order to confirm a shift back into a firmly bullish regime.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll zoom back into the 4-hour chart today for a view of the short-term setup where we can see that price found support near the still rising 100 SMA yesterday, as well as in the new upper demand area, before moving sharply higher earlier today on a bullish candle formation that has turned near-term market structure back to bullish, all very good news for higher prices heading into the upcoming weekend. The break above the flatlined 50 SMA, the still rising 200 SMA, the very favorable momentum oscillators, and the huge volume breakout on the recent rally also bode well for the bulls moving forward, however some more choppy consolidation around the bottom of the supply area seems likely over the next day or so before we see a close above $42.6k (which will spark more upside once it materializes).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also revisit the daily chart where we can see that price is back above the 100 SMA today on a very bullish candle formation after price found buyers at a hidden support level over the course of this week, all while the 50 SMA continues to rise so the bulls certainly have some ammo to work with over the coming days. The still improving medium-term market structure situation, a rising OBV, and recharged momentum oscillators also open the door to more upside this weekend, however a failure to close above $42.6k by the end of the weekend will likely spark the Head & Shoulders top that we talked about in yesterday’s TCV CMU Video so the bulls shouldn’t waste much time moving forward.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $40k for shorter-term upside to the $45k area. Longer-term target resides around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC finally moved above the medium-term downtrend line over the 24 past hours on a firmly bullish candle formation and still very favorable momentum oscillators, although follow-through since the breakout has been quite anemic due to the still falling 50 SMA overhead thus leading to a bearish gravestone doji going into the daily close, which tells us that the path of least resistance is still sideways for the time being. The still falling 100 SMA and lackluster momentum oscillators also suggest that the directionally challenged market is likely to be extended at least through the end of the week, so neutrality remains the play over the near-term in our opinion.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to 0.0067. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has remained surprisingly strong over the course of this week finding support above the 50 SMA before rallying back to the 100 SMA where bullish candles are forming and market structure is improving, so things are certainly looking better for the bulls than they did earlier in the week. The still strong momentum and volume indications should also help keep the ball in the bulls’ court over the near-term, however resistance is strong in the $270 – $280 area so that’s where we would be taking profits on shorter-term positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $230 for upside to the $270 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
We’ll return to ETH/BTC one last time this week due to the triangle breakout that we’ve seen recently on the back of EIP-1559, which by all accounts was a success on launch today, although perhaps the technicals are getting a bit toppy over the near-term due to a lack of follow-through earlier today which has sparked a large bearish candle formation heading into the daily close. That said, all of the moving averages continue to rise and the momentum and volume indications still look good so a brief but healthy pause here in the mid to high-0.060’s over the next day or two likely leads to a sharp rally into resistance between 0.075 – 0.080 shortly thereafter.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.066 for shorter-term upside to the 0.070 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD managed to hold above the flatlined 100 SMA earlier this week thus putting in a higher low and leading to a breakout to new regional highs that has confirmed still bullish shorter-term market structure, so the bulls are certainly in control overall right now. The fact that the 50 SMA has rejoined the 200 SMA in an uptrend also bodes well for the bulls for the month of August, although momentum is getting very close to officially overbought while price hits resistance at the bottom of the lower supply area so we would be cautious around current levels with an eye on the mid-$2000s to reload for another leg up above $3000 in the not too distant future.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2500 for shorter-term upside to the $3000 region. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC looks like its getting ready to explode to the upside in the near future considering that a higher low has formed above the key support line this week thus confirming bullish short to medium-term market structure as well as a potential Cup & Handle continuation pattern, all while the moving averages continue to pick up steam to the upside, so the technicals are looking very good for the bulls right now. The momentum and volume indications also suggest some additional upside before a dip, however resistance in the OTE short zone and main supply area is likely to pause the action for some downside volatility before a true breakout back above 0.00040 materializes (downside that we would certainly buy if given the opportunity).
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.00028 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00037 area. Longer-term target resides around the 0.00100 level.
CoinTraderPro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD has moved swiftly back into the OTE short zone over the past few days on firmly bullish candle formations that are close to confirming still intact shorter-term market structure while all of the moving averages continue to move to the upside as well, all pointing to higher prices in the not too distant future. The large Cup & Handle continuation pattern that is forming as well as the favorable OBV reading are also suggesting a bullish bias moving forward, likely to new ATHs above $15, but not without some volatility around the previous ATH’s first.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $12 for upside to the $17 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!