Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Following an almost perfect touch of resistance just above our $42k target last weekend, price has been expectedly grinding to the downside since then to find short-term support, which appears to be materializing around the $38k level for the time being. While there is a possibility that the market finds a sustainable low around these levels, still weighty technicals and more threats of regulation from the SEC are likely to keep some selling pressure going this week making a leg down to the $35k area likely before we see the bulls return in earnest.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
Today we’ll zoom out slightly to the 6-hour chart where we can see that price hit the bottom of the overhead supply area last weekend but has since been moving back to the downside on bearish candle formations thus breaking near-term market structure again, not great news for the bulls over the coming days. The fact that the 50 SMA is being challenged right now is also fairly worrying for the bulls, as is the lack of near-term support below the market, so we think the path of least resistance over the near-term is down to the support confluence around $35k consisting of the rising 100 and 200 SMAs, the upper demand area, and the top of the OTE long zone.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD monthly log chart
We’ll also zoom out to the monthly log chart today now that we’ve turned the calendar into August, and we can see that the candle that printed a few days ago turned out to be quite a bullish looking hammer reversal candle as well as a bright green SCMR signal, which is a welcome deviation from the 2017 cycle top and bodes well for the bulls of the rest of the year. The still-rising moving averages, intact SCMR support dots, and encouraging volume indications also suggest that the broader bull market is likely to resume in the not too distant future, however the momentum oscillators still have some recharging to do so another month or so of consolidation is likely before the uptrend gets going closer to Autumn.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $35k for shorter-term upside to the $45k area. Longer-term target resides around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC continues to tread water around the 0.0060 level on a hodgepodge of candle formations and still highly uncertain market structure while the 50 and 100 SMAs remain in downtrends, all pointing to more of the same over the near-term. The lackluster momentum oscillators and stagnant volume indications also suggest more consolidation around current levels over the next few days, however the OTE long zone and 200 SMA are still providing strong support as price nears the medium-term downtrend line so we’ll start to get more bullish if can stay here through the end of the week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for shorter-term upside to 0.0067. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
Unfortunately for the XMR/USD bulls they were unable to break price above the 200 SMA last weekend so the market has been under pressure since then, moving lower on a string of bearish candle formations that are turning market structure heavier while the 50 and 100 SMAs continue to head lower, so more downside appears likely over the near-term. The recharging momentum oscillators and slightly deteriorating volume indications are also bearish in nature, hence we think another test of the $200 region is likely before a sustainable higher low materializes.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $220 for upside to the $270 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC broke above the top of the descending triangle as well as the 100 SMA yesterday on a bullish candle formation that confirmed a shift to bullish near-term market structure while the 50 SMA reverses back to the upside to rejoin the 100 and 200 SMAs in an uptrend, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The steady volume indications and not overbought momentum oscillators also suggest that the door is open to more upside over the coming days, although bulls need to keep price above 0.064 through the daily close today in order to maintain control this week.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.065 for shorter-term upside to the 0.070 region. Longer-term target resides around 0.100.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD was able to briefly get above the flatlined 100 SMA over the past few days but is back below it today on a bearish candle formation with little in the way of near-term support below the market, so a move back down to the $2200 area would not surprise us one bit before a sustainable low forms. The fact that the momentum oscillators still have a lot of recharging to do is also pointing to more near-term downside, although the volume indications remain favorable and the 50 SMA is about to join the 200 SMA in a slow uptrend so we think this is a buy the dip situation before a move up to the $3k area later this month or early next.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2300 for shorter-term upside to the $3000 region. Longer-term target resides around $10,000.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
A hold of the bottom of the OTE long zone by the BCH/BTC bulls over the course of the last week set the stage for a textbook falling wedge breakout that has materialized this week on a bullish candle formation that is helping to stabilize short-term market structure while the momentum and volume indications heavily favor the bulls for the time being, so we think some follow-through to the upside is likely over the shorter-term. That said, the falling longer-term moving averages remain a concern moving forward so we think said upside is limited to the 0.016 area for the time being.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.013 for shorter-term upside to the 0.016 area.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD 3-day linear chart
Following a nice double bottom at the still slowly rising 200 SMA last month, BCH/USD has been moving generally higher on bullish candle formations while shorter-term market structure gets very close to flipping to bullish as well, all good news for the bulls overall. The still favorable momentum and volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls moving forward, as is the fact that price is staying above the 50 SMA for now, hence we think a move up to the resistance confluence around $700 is likely before a pullback materializes.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $500 for shorter-term upside to the $700 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!