Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
What a surprisingly good start to the week it’s been following a positive weekend as well, quite contrary to our expectations for weakness late last week, although the action fits perfectly with our medium to long-term view that price is bottoming and is forming a base for another bull leg to this halving cycle later this year. While we’re still likely at least a few weeks away from confirming that the consolidation in the $30k’s is over, the probability of a sustainable low being in at $28,600 has increased dramatically over the past 5 days so we think the worst is behind us in terms of downside.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour chart remains the best view of the short-term technicals where we can see that price has appreciated significantly recently following a higher low above $28,600 last week, a move that has shifted short-term market structure back to bullish while all of the moving averages turn higher for the first time since this summer bear market started, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The positive volume indications also support the idea that the recent spate of buying was real (and not just short covering), although lackluster momentum oscillators and heavy overhead resistance below $42k are increasing the odds of a buyable pullback into the $33k – $35k area sometime this week before upside resumes into the 40k’s.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next up is the daily once again to see what the recent rally has done to the medium-term technicals and the breakout above the descending triangle was as clean as we’ve seen in a while on a series of bullish candle formations that have taken price above the now rising 50 SMA as well, so the bulls are certainly in better shape now than they were this time last week. The RSI breakout and the uptick in the A/D line are also quite positive signs for the bulls, although a rejection at the falling 100 SMA recently (that sparked a bearish candle formation yesterday), a 200 SMA that is about to turn lower, and a still worrisome medium-term market structure setup all suggest that it’s likely to be a slow slog out of the summer doldrums over the coming weeks (giving us time to accumulate more!)
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $35k for shorter-term upside to the $44k area. Longer-term target resides around $100k.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has finally broken down below the top of the OTE long zone as expected on some bearish candle formations that have turned near-term market structure back to bearish while also being quite heavy, all bad news for the bulls over the coming days. The still falling A/D line, bearish 50 SMA and, still intact descending triangle are also suggesting that the bears are in control for now, however the momentum oscillators are almost recharged and price is at strong medium-term support so we still think that the 0.0050’s are a good longer-term buying opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved above the descending triangle over the past few days and is now challenging the falling 50 SMA on rapidly improving momentum oscillators and steady and elevated volume indications, so the bulls finally have something to work with after months of depressing action in the triangle. That said, follow-through has been anemic so far thus leading to some lackluster candle formations while market structure remains bearish overall, therefore we think it will take some time to grind up to the 200 SMA around $250, and certainly to resistance in the $300 region where major historical resistance resides.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC remains a mess from a technical perspective considering that price is once again challenging the bottom of the shorter-term symmetrical triangle while the large descending triangle remains in play as well, and the recent rejection at the falling 50 SMA is also a concern moving forward, so we want to stay cautious until further notice. The fact that price is now back below the 100 SMA on bearish candle formations and still deteriorating momentum and volume indications is also a bad sign for the bulls, as is a very heavy market structure situation, therefore we think it’s a good idea to wait for sub-0.058 price before beginning to accumulate once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.058 for longer-term upside to the 0.100 region.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
Like almost all major altcoin/USD pairs over the past few days, ETH/USD has broken out above its descending triangle and is back above both the 50 and 200 SMA’s while the momentum and volume indications improve substantially, so it’s looking more and more like a sustainable bottom is in around $1700. Having said that, we would not be surprised to see a few more weeks of backing and filling between ~$2000 and $2500, which is actually not such a bad thing since a broader and longer base means higher prices eventually.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2000 for longer-term upside to the $10,000 region.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC is starting to look very attractive from a technical point of view given that price has rallied off of a rounded bottom that is part of an unorthodox double bottom while market structure improves to do the slightly higher low recently, all very good news for the bulls moving forward. The still-rising and supportive 200 SMA, the improving momentum oscillators, and the stabilizing volume indications also suggest that a slow grind higher is likely over the coming days, however the falling 50 SMA just overhead will need to be cleared in order to kick off a trending changing rally so be careful around the 0.0000800 level over the near-term.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0000700 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0001000 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.0003000.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has formed a textbook double bottom inside of the upper demand area over the past several weeks and is now starting to move above this region on some bullish candle formations that are helping market structure improve overall, good news for the bulls to be sure. The still-rising 200 SMA and improving momentum and volume indications are also positive signs for the bulls moving forward, although the falling 100 SMA is right overhead so price is likely to pause around current levels for at least a little while before moving sustainably above $3.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $2 for shorter-term upside to the $5 area. Longer-term target resides around $25.
Good Luck, Good Trading!