Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 23 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
On the back of some good news over the past few days, including positive comments from Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey, the BTC market has remained fairly strong with price getting close to the $33k region that we discussed during the CMU video on Wednesday, all of which is good news in terms of a potential sustainable bottom in this region. Having said that, a few rejections at resistance recently and some less than ideal near-term technical indications suggest that the pullback we were expecting this weekend is indeed likely to materialize, although it’s a dip we ultimately want to buy if given the opportunity at our levels.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll return to the 4-hour chart today as it remains the best view of the shorter-term setup where we can see that a rounded top has formed at the medium-term downtrend line and bottom of the lower supply area which means that market structure remains bearish and heavy overall while a discouraging candle forms today, so we want to stay cautious over the shorter-term. The fact that price is now back below the still falling 100 SMA while the 200 SMA remains in a steady downtrend is also not great for the bulls, and neither are the momentum oscillators which look pretty bad right now, so we would not be surprised to see a move down to the $30k – $31k region over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We also want to take another look at the daily chart before the weekend where we can see that price is trying to break above the triangle downtrend line while RSI tries to get above its downtrend line as well, and for the time being both are failing to do so thus resulting in some fairly bearish shorter-term signals, again warning us to be wary of downside soon. The still lackluster OBV reading and the falling moving averages are also signs that the bulls are still on the defensive overall, however a close above the triangle and above the RSI trendline over the next few days would likely spell a higher low this weekend and a strong rally next week.
Trade Idea: Longer-term players can accumulate below $31k for upside to the $100k region later in the year.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
With the top of the OTE long zone continuing to act as strong support for the bulls there’s not much to do while price sits here except for look for clues as to future directionality once this tight range is over, and for now we still think that there is a slightly better chance of lower prices over the shorter-term due to the falling 50 SMA and lackluster momentum and volume indications. That said, the 200 SMA has finally turned up and remains in the support confluence in the mid-0.0050’s which is still where we’re ready to get active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD continues to look pretty bad from a shorter-term technical perspective considering that market structure remains broken and heavy, the current candle formation is small but bearish, the shorter-term moving averages are picking up steam to the downside, and the stagnant momentum oscillators aren’t helping anything, so we want to stay neutral, patient, and on the sidelines for sub-$180 prices as we’ve been doing all week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $180 for upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
ChainLink (LINK) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance LINK/BTC 3-day linear chart
LINK/BTC has entered a fairly strong area of historical support over the course of this week and indeed we saw some buying emerge a few days ago, however follow-through on the part of the bulls was less than stellar leading to some selling over the past few days that has turned the current 3-day candle formation bearish while market structure remains a mess, so it looks like the path of least resistance is still sideways to down until further notice. The almost confirmed death cross and the falling 100 SMA are also bad signs for the bulls, as are the volume indications, so we’ll stay neutral at least until sub-0.00045 levels.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Kraken LINK/USD daily linear chart
In what might be a glimpse into the future for many altcoins forming clean descending triangles, LINK/USD broke down out of the pattern last week and ground down to new regional lows inside of the demand area thus confirming still bearish market structure while the shorter-term moving averages continue to trend lower, so the burden of proof remains on the bulls at this time. That said, price has recovered back to the apex of the broken triangle on decent volume indications and favorable momentum oscillators so a weekly close above $16.50 likely kicks off a bigger rally, although at the same time a failure by the bulls here would likely mean a move back into the $13’s, or maybe even $12’s, before a sustainable bottom forms.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC remains the best-looking chart of the small-cap privacy coins in the TCV portfolio as a textbook rounded bottom is forming at historical and technical support via the upper demand area and rising 50 SMA, all while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher as well, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The stable OBV reading, a bullishly divergent MACD, and a recharged RSI also suggest that some upside is likely in the not too distant future, although resistance around 0.00025 will probably keep the medium-term consolidation going for at least a little while longer so patience remains a virtue in this environment.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00020 for upside to the 0.00035 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
DERO/USD broke out of the falling wedge pattern that we identified last week and has already successfully tested it a few days ago which sparked a nice rally off of the lows that came in the upper demand area, and price is now back above all of the moving averages which are still steadily rising, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The lack of major historical resistance until the $7.50 – $8.00 area also leaves the door open to some shorter-term upside, although we’ll likely need to see BTC/USD stay stable or move higher for this to materialize so we’ll keep our eyes glued to that market over the weekend.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $6 for upside to the $10 area. Longer-term target resides around $25.
Good Luck, Good Trading!