Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 19 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With the legacy markets under pressure coming into this mid-July week, it comes as no surprise that bitcoin and the crypto markets are heavy as well despite news that Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, and Cathie Wood will be having a discussion at the “B” Word conference on Wednesday. The bearish technicals and poor price action are not helping matters for the bulls either, a trend which we expect to continue over the course of this week (due mainly to the GBTC unlocks), although the fact that we’re still above $30k right now is fairly encouraging from a longer-term perspective given everything else that is going on inside of the ecosystem (regulatory, mining, etc.).
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
We’ll begin this week with our first look at the 4-hour chart in quite a while where we can see that there appears to be a rather large falling wedge/channel pattern developing that price is currently testing the bottom of on rather bearish candle formations and obviously bearish market structure, so we think there is still a good chance of lower prices this week. The falling moving averages overhead, the deteriorating volume indications, and the lackluster momentum oscillators are also suggesting a downward bias over the near-term, however due to the demand area below $30.6k we think it will likely be more of a slow bleed than a big, quick puke to the downside therefore patience remains our friend for now.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
We’ll also look at the daily chart for a slightly broader view of the market where we can see that the bearish descending triangle remains firmly in play for now with price moving towards the bottom of the formation on bearish candles and increasingly bearish market structure, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The falling short-term moving averages, discouraging OBV reading, and still downtrending RSI also point to a bearish bias moving forward, therefore we’ll stay on the sidelines until we can get a read on price action below $30k.
Trade Idea: Shorter-term traders stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term players can accumulate below $30k for upside to the $100k region later in the year.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC saw an unexpected rally materialize over the weekend on renewed hopes of a double bottom around 0.0060, although the sellers have returned in earnest today thus pushing price back down and sparking a very bearish candle formation while the 50 SMA rolls over again overhead, so we still think that sub-0.0060 levels are likely to be tested before a sustainable bottom develops. The still-intact descending triangle and the suspect momentum and volume indications also suggest that the bears are still in control over the shorter-term, so we’ll stay patient for lower prices before getting active on the long side once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has moved down to the bottom of the descending triangle today on a firmly bearish candle formation and still very heavy market structure while the 50 SMA falls further below the 200 SMA and the 100 SMA picks up more steam to the downside, all bad news for the bulls moving forward this week. The recent downtick in the A/D line and a slight increase in exchange volumes are also worrying signs for the bulls, hence we’ll stay neutral until at least sub-$180 prices, although support above $150 remains very strong so we’ll take advantage of a selloff into that region if given the opportunity in the near future.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $180 for upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC has been holding its own quite well over the past few days despite moving below the 100 SMA, which is a fairly good sign for the bulls moving forward, although the bearish candle formations recently, the falling 50 SMA, and lackluster momentum and volume indications are likely enough to outweigh any favorable price action that we saw over the weekend. The still-intact descending triangle also doesn’t bode well for the bulls over the shorter-term, so if price closes below the green near-term uptrend line later today around 0.059 then a visit to the bottom of the triangle (if not lower) is very likely at some point this week.
Trade Idea: Shorter-term traders stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term players can accumulate below 0.0060 for eventual upside to the 0.10 region.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
Like so many other crypto charts, ETH/USD is moving lower towards the bottom of a very well-formed descending triangle on a bearish candle formation that is putting more pressure on an already bearish market structure situation while the 100 SMA gets close to joining the 50 SMA in a downtrend, none of which is good news for the bulls moving forward. The disappointing momentum and volume indications and the lack of a reaction at the top of the upper demand area are also bad signs for the bulls, therefore we’ll stay neutral at least until sub-$1700 prices which is where we want to see some action on the part of the bulls.
Trade Idea: Shorter-term traders stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term players can accumulate below $1700 for upside to the $10k region eventually.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
While it was nice to see ARRR/BTC rally off of the 200 SMA last week, unfortunately there was no follow-through on the part of the bulls and since then price has been bleeding to the downside on mostly bearish candle formations that are keeping market structure bearish overall, so it looks like we’re back in consolidation mode for now. The flatlined OBV, lackluster momentum oscillators, and mixed shorter-term moving averages confirm this view, so we’re expecting price to trade sideways to slightly lower to retest the 200 SMA again in the mid-0.000050’s before the bulls return to the marketplace again.
Trade Idea: Shorter-term traders stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term players can accumulate below 0.000060 for upside to the 0.000300 area.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has been moving to the downside over the past several days following a rejection at the 200 SMA last week, and today we’re getting another small but bearish candle formation that is keeping market structure generally heavy while the 50 SMA continues to fall, none of which bodes well for the bulls over the near-term. The stagnant momentum and volume indications and a lack of buying despite the upper demand area also suggest a challenging environment for the bulls moving forward, although we do think that demand will increase below $2 so we’ll leave that as the accumulation barrier for now.
Trade Idea: Shorter-term traders stay neutral until further notice. Longer-term players can accumulate below $2 for upside to the $25 area later this year.
Good Luck, Good Trading!