Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 16 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
With BTC prices continuing to consolidate in the low-$30k’s while the summer doldrums remain in full effect it’s not helping matters that newsflow is still slow and mixed heading into the low liquidity weekend, all of which will likely keep the current regime of very choppy conditions with a slight bearish bias intact going into next week. Having said that, the technicals continue to point to a ramp in volatility in the not too distant future so we’ll stay neutral and ready for whatever may come towards the month’s end.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
First, we’ll look at the daily chart for a view of the medium-term technicals heading into this mid-summer weekend where we’ve replaced the descending channel with a descending triangle as price continues to bleed lower on small but bearish candle formations that are keeping near-term market structure very heavy, all of which is indicating more bearish conditions than we saw earlier in the week. The recent 100/200 SMA cross, the falling 50 SMA, the still downtrending RSI, and lackluster volume indications also suggest that the bears are still in control, hence we’re expecting a test of the $30k region, if not slightly lower, over the coming days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
Next, we’ll zoom out to the weekly chart where we can see that price is finding support at the rising 50 SMA while the longer-term moving averages continue to trend higher and the volume indications still suggest buyers are outweighing sellers, so there remains a decent chance that price is close to finding a sustainable bottom above the ~$27k level. Conversely, the current weekly candle formation is firmly bearish and short to medium-term market structure leaves much to be desired thus keeping the door open to $20k so we’ll stay ready for either scenario by scaling in as price moves lower.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $30k for upside to the $40k area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While XMR/BTC bulls continue to hope for a double bottom around current levels we think the odds are still favoring a move down into the 0.0050’s before a sustainable bottom develops, a hypothesis that is supported by the recent bearish 50/100 SMA cross, the falling 200 SMA, and bearish medium-term market structure, therefore we’re staying cautious for now. The lack of any bullish candle formations recently and the still discouraging volume indications are also signs of weakness heading into the weekend, so we’ll continue to stay patient for sub-0.0060 level before getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0100 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD looks like it’s on the verge of breaking down out of the descending triangle in the not too distant future considering that price has moved down to the bottom of the formation on bearish candles and very heavy market structure while the 50/200 SMA death cross becomes further entrenched, all bad news for the bulls moving forward. The now falling 100 SMA and the still recharging momentum oscillators are also fairly bad signs for the bulls, therefore we’ll pause our buying until sub-$180 levels for the time being.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $180 for shorter-term upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
Despite strong technical and historical support around current levels, BCH/BTC looks like it wants to head lower over the near-term given that price is falling further below the moving averages on small but bearish candle formations that are keeping shorter-term market structure very heavy, so a move towards the 0.011 area appears likely over the coming days. The still falling 200 SMA and the lackluster volume indications support the idea of near-term downside risk, although we expect support in the 0.010 – 0.012 region to act in conjunction with increasingly favorable momentum readings and a possible falling wedge to keep price above 0.010 while a sustainable bottom forms.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.012 for shorter-term upside to the 0.020 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.050.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD 3-day linear chart
BCH/USD looks ready to move lower in the near future given that the 50 SMA has finally turned down, candle formations are firmly bearish, market structure is broken and heavy, and the 100 SMA is now resistance, so we want to stay neutral and patient for lower prices. The lackluster volume indications also suggest a bearish bias, at least over the shorter-term, although a technical and historical support confluence zone comes into play just below $400 which is where we’ll consider getting active on the long side again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $400 for upside to the $800 area. Longer-term target resides around $1500.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to tread water between key support and resistance lines and just above the upper demand area while the moving averages remain in uptrends and longer-term market structure remains firmly bullish, all good news for the bulls moving forward. The stabilizing OBV reading and the bullishly divergent MACD are also positives for the bulls that should keep price from breaking down too hard over the coming days, however we’re not expecting much in the way of upside for the foreseeable future either so we’ll stay in accumulation mode as price continues to consolidate.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00020 for shorter-term upside to the 0.00035 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
As DERO/USD reenters the OTE long zone on bearish candle formations and still broken shorter-term market structure it looks like price now has some room to fall to sub-$6 levels while RSI continues to recharge, MACD remains lackluster, and OBV continues to bleed. Having said that, it looks like there could be a large falling wedge forming (bullish) with increasingly strong support in the $5’s which is where we’ll start to add to longer-term positions once again.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $6 for shorter-term upside to the $8 area. Longer-term target resides around $25.
Good Luck, Good Trading!