Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 3 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
The Summer chop continues as the news cycle is filled with regulatory FUD and bearish calls. Everything is moving as we expected early in the Summer. BTC continues to move sideways and chewing up the inexperienced traders who are attempting to profit from a very small price range between $30k-$34k.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
The weekly chart closed last week on a red TD 3 candle and even though it was bullish in shape, the closing price was the lowest weekly close since January. This is not encouraging for bullish action. This week we have the expected red TD 4 candle in effect and we are still moving sideways and down for now. iFish (Inverse Fisher Transform) is now flashing a buy signal for the second week in a row as shown by the 2 green candles with red outlines. We still have a weekly resistance level at $36,600 that needs to be conquered before more upside. Squeeze momentum is still making lower lows and keeping upside limited while MACD tries to recover. RSI and StochRSI both have plenty of room to the upside while CMF continues to show slightly more dollars flowing into BTC. The same question is still in play. Will we make a lower low near $20k, or a higher low around these current levels? The next 7 to 14 days are going to tell us the story.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
The daily chart remains neutral while today’s candle looks pretty bearish in shape with a reversal cancellation X flashing. We have been moving sideways for so long now, we can see the 50 SMA is flattening out above price and continuing to act as resistance. The compression is getting extreme and sooner or later this is going to become volatile. It is surprising that we are still moving sideways here because last week it was already very compressed. The lack of follow through by the bulls, the increasing compression, and the fact the intermediate trend is still to the downside should make everyone pause and prepare for a violent downside move. This next move should be bought up if we go down into the $20k area. If the bulls can hold this level for another 1-2 weeks, then we can start considering more bullish possibilities afterwards.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour chart has remained neutral for yet another week. Shorter term traders who are following our signals from the 4-hour chart trade ideas should now remain neutral until this compression is over. The sky below is squeezing the price above so volatility is imminent but there is really no way to know the direction when it finally breaks. Buying the more extreme moves to the downside will be a safer option for longer term holding.
Trade Idea: Remain neutral. Accumulate in the $20k’s for the longer term.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour XMR/BTC chart remains in a “No Trend” stance and is now extremely compressed like bitcoin. Avoid trading this pair in the shorter term until direction is established.
Trade idea: Long term investors can accumulate at 0.0057 and 0.0054 levels.
XMR/USDT
TradingView Binance XMR/USDT 4-hour linear chart
The XMR/USDT 4-hour chart remains in a bearish stance while compression is building with the sky below squeezing price above. Neutrality is even more essential now and upside expectations should be reduced while we focus on buying lower levels. Our new buy levels this week are at $186, $165 and $144 and traders should scale in as it moves lower.
Short term trade idea: Scale buy orders at $186, and $165 and $144.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to consolidate. Squeeze momentum has turned around along with MACD so some upside is in the cards. Upside moves will likely be capped at the middle Bollinger Band at 0.000023. CMF shows BTC capital flowed into DERO over the past week but sellers continued to outnumber buyers. The 50 day moving average is back down at 0.00017 this week along with the lower Bollinger Band, so that area below remains the best place to buy.
Trade idea: Start accumulating near 0.00017. Scale in further at 0.000164 and 0.0001 for long term holding.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/USD
Cointrader DERO/USD daily linear chart
The DERO/USD bounced off the top of our green OTE buy zone between $4.67 and $6.76 but is already starting to correct. CMF shows sellers stepped in hard on the bounce and dollars continue to flow out of the market for now. We still have not touched the lower Bollinger Band inside the green box, so patience is required until we do so. Once DERO price gets into those lower levels, we will be buyers of that confluence area.
Trade idea: Start accumulating progressively at $6.45, $5.95 and $4.67 for long term holding.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has now completed an 81% correction from the top and some buyers have started to step in. However, they are still outnumbered by sellers and there has been no V shaped recovery with volume. It is hard to call a bottom here until we see some good volume from the buyer’s side. This is still a place to start accumulating for the long term but we recommend scaling in over time in order to catch the best possible prices. Do not buy your entire allocation on the same day. Long term buys at the 85%-90% correction levels are excellent long term entries so buyers can start accumulating around here and scale in further if we get lower prices at the 200 SMA and lower Bollinger Band.
Trade idea: Accumulate ARRR at 0.000055. Scale in further at 0.000049 and below for the long term.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/USD
Cointrader ARRR/USD daily linear chart
ARRR/USD has hit the 200 day SMA and broken below it. This is now an 89% correction from the top already and remains a place to start accumulating. The lower Bollinger Band is now at $1.64 and definitely a place to buy more where we have a near 90% correction from the top. Buy lots if we capitulate near $1.00.
Trade idea: Continue accumulating ARRR below $2.00. Scale in further at $1.64 and below for long term holding.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
WOW/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
The WOW/BTC pair has continued bleeding to the downside since last week’s update. Even though it had a counter trend bounce to the upside, sellers continue to outnumber buyers and the volumes remain low. We still have not tested the long term support at the green lines and at this point there is no reason it will not test at least the first level below. We did reach a 91% correction from the top and this is a great long term entry for cryptos. However, this is a high risk low cap coin and investors should only allocate the recommended TCV portfolio percentage amount to minimize risk.
Trade idea: Accumulate below 0.00000302 area and 0.00000191 for long term holding.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
WOW/USD
Cointrader WOW/USD daily linear chart
The WOW/USD pair is in a similar position to the bitcoin pair. Capital continues to flow out of this market. We are currently in a 94% correction from the parabolic top so this is definitely a place to start long term accumulation. We did have a small counter trend bounce into the $0.20 area but sellers quickly stepped in to unload their coins. There is no real long term support until $0.12 and $0.07. Investors should allocate the recommended TCV portfolio percentage amount to minimize risk.
Trade idea: Accumulate at $0.12 and $0.07 areas or below for long term holding.
Summary
The markets are flat and boring or bleeding out slowly until Bitcoin makes a decision. Avoid trading and accumulate the lows for the long term. If we get a Bitcoin capitulation into the $20,000’s then other coins will follow suit. Use that opportunity to buy discounted coins.
Good Luck, Good Trading!