Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 10 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Undeterred by loud-mouthed international organizations and following in the footsteps of El Salvador, Paraguay plans to introduce BTC legal tender legislation on July 14th which is another fundamental catalyst for long-term growth moving forward. It’s also nice to see price action stay relatively stable over a quiet summer weekend, which can mean lower liquidity and therefore more volatility, however the bulls still have a lot of work to do to turn the technicals in their favor over the shorter-term so we’ll stay cautiously optimistic via neutral positioning heading into next week.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Let’s start with a look at the daily chart where we can see that price is still in the middle of the descending channel and remains below the falling 50 SMA while a bearish 100/200 SMA cross gets very close to confirming, not great news for the bulls from a short to medium-term perspective. Having said that, we are at the top of the upper demand area, which is providing support following the triangle breakdown on Thursday thus helping shorter-term market structure to stabilize, while RSI continues to consolidate just below the downtrend line that needs to break to take price higher. While we think this is becoming increasingly likely next week due to the lowest Bollinger Band Width reading since before the crash in May, we still need confirmation of a breakout via price above $35k else we have to stay under the assumption that the bears are still in control of the market for now.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
We’ll also look at the weekly chart for a view of the longer-term setup where we can see that the bulls will need yet another miracle at the buzzer in order to turn the current bearish candle formation bullish enough to close above the top of the OTE long zone, which we’re not ruling out given it’s happened for two weeks straight now, although shorter-term market structure is a more concerning this time around so pushing price above $34,500 into the weekly close will be quite a chore. Longer-term, however, the outlook remains favorable in our opinion due to the still rising and supportive moving averages, the almost recharged momentum oscillators, the bullishly divergent MACD, and favorable volume indications so we’ll continue to use weakness to add to longer-term positions.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $32k for upside to the $40k area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
XMR/BTC has finally broken down out of the symmetrical triangle as expected on some small but bearish candle formations that have put the pressure back on the bulls while the 50 SMA continues to fall into the 100 SMA and the volume indications remain discouraging overall, therefore we think the path of least resistance is currently lower over the near-term. That said, the momentum oscillators are still favorable, MACD is painting a huge bullish divergence, and there could be a double bottom that forms around the 0.0060 level due to strengthening support in that region, so we’ll continue to buy around and below there for longer-term holding.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
XMR/USD has not only broken down out of the ascending triangle over the past few days, but it now looks like a larger descending triangle has developed over the medium-term which is even worse news for the bulls moving forward. The recently confirmed death cross and lackluster momentum oscillators are also not great signs for the bulls over the coming days, hence our caution over the shorter-term, although another hold of support in the $180 – $200 area will likely break the bears’ spirit thus giving the bulls the upper hand next week so we’ll watch that area closely over the coming days.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for shorter-term upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ETH/BTC daily linear chart
ETH/BTC is under pressure once again following the rally we saw last week, a rally that was discouragingly weak considering that price couldn’t even make it up into the OTE short zone or to the medium-term downtrend line, and now we’re back below the falling 50 SMA on newly recharging momentum oscillators and a slightly deteriorating A/D line, therefore it looks like more downside is probable before the bulls return to the marketplace. The rising 50 SMA in the middle of the upper demand area appears to be a decent spot to consider starting to nibble longs, however, so we’ll leave the trade idea as is with small buys below 0.060.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.060 for shorter-term upside to the 0.070 area. Longer-term target remains around 0.12.
TradingView Coinbase ETH/USD daily linear chart
ETH/USD is currently riding along the still rising 200 SMA on mostly bearish candle formations while market structure remains very heavy and the 50 SMA is falling into price, not great news for the bulls moving forward, and neither is the large medium-term descending triangle that is developing on this chart as well. That said, another hold of the $1700 regional lows by the bulls will likely break the bears’ will, hence we’re still willing to add to longs below the $2000 level if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $2000 for upside to the $3000 area. Longer-term target remains around $10,000.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
It’s time to zoom out to the DERO/BTC daily chart to see where the medium-term technicals stand and things are looking better for the bulls today after a nice bounce off of support over the past 24 hours that has helped keep shorter-term market structure from getting too ugly, so there very well could be a continuation to the upside over the coming days. The rising moving averages should help, so if local highs around 0.00025 can be cleared then there’s room well up into the 0.00030’s, although the lackluster state of the momentum and volume indications are keeping us neutral until we see the breakout.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.00020 for upside to the 0.00035 area. Longer-term target resides around 0.00100.
CoinTradePro CoinPaprika DERO/USD daily linear chart
It’s encouraging for the DERO/USD bulls to see price rally off of the top of the OTE long zone and out of the upper demand area over the past few days on some very favorable candle formations while all of the moving averages continue to rise and longer-term market structure remains firmly intact, so our overall bias is still bullish at this time. Having said that, resistance gets very stiff above the $8 level at a time when the momentum and volume indications remain suboptimal overall so we think consolidation in the $7.00 – $8.50 range is likely heading into next week.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $7 for upside to the $10 area. Longer-term target resides around $100.
Good Luck, Good Trading!