Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 8 – 2021)
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Amid renewed regulatory uncertainty in the US and a selloff in the broader financial markets, it comes as no surprise that weakness has also permeated crypto as investors move to safer assets. There may also be some anticipatory selling ahead of the large Grayscale GBTC unlocks happening next week which is putting additional pressure on prices heading into the end of the week. We think these short-term fundamental overhangs and the uncertain technicals are likely to keep price from making much progress to the upside over the shorter-term, therefore we want to stay neutral and cautious over the next several days.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 6-hour linear chart
We’ll start off with a look at the 6-hour chart for a view of the shorter-term technicals where we can see that price spiked down below the range support line earlier today on a doji candle that broke near-term market structure while the longer-term moving averages continue to steadily trend lower, so the bulls are still on the defensive for now despite some bullish action earlier in the week. The slight downtick in the A/D line, the slight uptick in exchange volumes, and still recharging momentum oscillators also suggest that the bears remain in control overall moving forward, however if we can get a higher low above $30k over the coming week then the bulls will be back in business for the latter half of July.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
Next we’ll zoom out to the daily chart where we can see that unfortunately for the bulls the near-term ascending triangle that we discussed yesterday in the CMU video has been broken to the downside thus putting pressure on shorter-term market structure while medium-term structure remains firmly bearish, so we must stay cautious until further notice. The upcoming bearish 100/200 SMA cross, the falling 50 SMA overhead, the RSI trendline rejection, and the still concerning hash ribbon are also bad signs for the bulls over the coming week, although the volume indications continue to show accumulation so we think support will stay strong in the $30 – $32k area.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $32k for upside to the $40k area. Longer-term target resides around $100,000.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC daily linear chart
While it has been nice to see the bottom of the symmetrical triangle hold over the past several days, the spike higher yesterday and subsequent rejection at the 50 SMA led to a very bearish shooting star-type candle formation that has been followed up by a small doji that has pierced the lower triangle trendline which is certainly not great news for the bulls moving forward. The lackluster momentum and volume indications and the still imminent bearish 50/100 SMA cross are also bad signs for the bulls shorter-term, although we still like the support confluence inside of the green circle consisting of the OTE long zone and 200 SMA so we’ll stay patient and ready to buy sub-0.0060 levels.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below 0.0060 for upside to 0.0070. Longer-term target resides in the 0.0120 area.
TradingView Bitfinex XMR/USD daily linear chart
With BTC/USD breaking down out of its near-term ascending triangle it’s not surprising that XMR/USD has done the same on a small but bearish candle formation that has also broken near-term market structure while a death cross confirms overhead, none of which bodes well for the bulls moving forward. The fact that the 100 SMA has rolled over while the momentum oscillators leave much to be desired also suggests more challenging times ahead for the bulls, at least over the coming week, but the volume indications are telling us to keeping buying below $200 for longer-term positions which is what we will do when/if given the opportunity.
Trade Idea: Accumulate below $200 for shorter-term upside to the $250 area. Longer-term target resides around $1000.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance BCH/BTC 3-day linear chart
BCH/BTC continues to find some buyers in the support confluence consisting of the OTE long zone, upper demand area, and rising 50 SMA while the momentum oscillators are recharged and the volume indications remain steady, so there is still a chance that the bulls will establish a sustainable bottom in the low to mid-0.010’s. Having said that, market structure remains bearish, the 200 SMA remains in a firm downtrend, and the falling 100 SMA is acting as resistance just overhead so we want to stay neutral as long as price is inside of the 0.012 – 0.016 trading range.
Trade Idea: Stay neutral until further notice.
TradingView Coinbase BCH/USD 3-day linear chart
BCH/USD has been struggling with resistance at the 100 SMA over the past several days and now looks poised to drop back below it due to the recent wicks to the upside and still bearish market structure, so we want to stay neutral and cautious for the time being. The lackluster momentum and volume indications also suggest that the path of least resistance is likely to the downside over the shorter-term, although a nice MACD bullish divergence will help the 200 SMA to hold so we remain buyers below $400.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $400 for upside to the $1000 area.
ZCash (ZEC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
TradingView Binance ZEC/BTC 3-day linear chart
ZEC/BTC is riding along the lower triangle trendline right now but below the rising 50 SMA and falling 100 SMA while candle formations are mixed and market structure is a mess overall, so we think it’s likely that price continues to trade in the low to mid-0.0030’s over the shorter-term. The recent weakness in the A/D line and the still lackluster momentum oscillators also suggest that more choppy action is likely in the cards, with a downward bias to the high-0.0020’s before the bulls return to the fray.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below 0.0030 for shorter-term upside to the 0.0060 area.
TradingView Binance ZEC/USDT daily linear chart
ZEC/USDT is still treading water in no man’s land between supply and demand areas while remaining below all of the moving averages, which are mixed, on unhelpful candle formations within what appears to be a descending triangle, meaning the more choppy consolidation is likely over the near-term with a downward bias heading into mid-month. The stagnant momentum oscillators will help keep price action subdued for now as well, hence we’ll stay neutral moving forward with the intention of buying sub-$100 levels if given the chance.
Trade Idea: Buy dips below $100 for upside to the $150 area.
Good Luck, Good Trading!