Crypto Market Commentary & Outlook
(July 6 – 2021
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis & Outlook
Bitcoin has continued to chop up traders in a sideways fashion throughout the lower liquidity holiday weekend. The fact we did not break down during the weekend is an encouraging point and it shows accumulation is occurring at these levels. This is confirmed by news stating that whales loaded up on 60,000 BTC in a single day yesterday.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly linear chart
The weekly chart closed last week with another ever-so-slightly bullish blue reversal candle on a red TD 2. This week we have the expected red TD 3 candle in effect and we are still moving sideways for now. The chart looks less bearish than last week and we have some positive signals here. iFish (Inverse Fisher Transform) is flashing a buy signal here shown by the green candle. This is the most important signal telling us a possible relief rally to the upside is coming soon on the weekly scale. We have a weekly resistance level at $36,600 that needs to be conquered before more upside is possible. Squeeze momentum is still making a lower low but losing downside strength, which shows us the selling momentum is waning. RSI and StochRSI both have plenty of room to the upside while CMF continues to show dollars flowing into BTC confirming the news that whales are indeed in quiet accumulation mode. We just completed our first week of sideways action in July and now need more sideways or upside before our next expected low in late July. Will it be a lower low near $20k or a higher low around these current levels? That is the key question we will have answered by then, and it will help us determine intermediate term direction in August.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD daily linear chart
The daily chart remains mostly neutral while it continues to chop up inexperienced traders who get bullish at resistance and bearish at support. Today’s candle looks pretty bearish in shape so far, but the day isn’t over and chop can change that fairly quickly. Bollinger Bands are squeezing the price and telling us volatility is coming one way or another soon. There is a lot of resistance above as seen by all the red lines and the red box. The 50 SMA continues to come down and is now acting as resistance below the red box while the still bearish Parabolic SAR dots have gone flat just above price. This compression is starting to feel like a tinderbox and it will probably get lit within the next week. It will likely be to the upside given how oversold things are in the higher time frames but the bulls have their work cut out to get through these resistances above. The “sell the rally” area above is now between resistance at $41,341 and the 200 SMA at $44,100. Last but not least, when we see this type of compression in BTC, the move to the upside can happen right after a fake move to the downside to chop up traders one last time. Traders need to be very careful here.
TradingView Bitstamp BTC/USD 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour chart has been essentially neutral for the past week during this chop phase. Short term traders who are following our signals from the 4-hour chart trade ideas should exercise extreme care over the next while until this compression is over. Given the higher risks involved in this area, we recommend buying the lowest levels possible and avoid using a lot of capital to enter too early. Capital preservation from our previous profitable trades is very important in this environment. Buying a more extreme move to the downside will be a safer option. Traders can then progressively take profits at the four sell targets above.
Short term trade Idea: Buy $27,100 and $29,250 for shorter-term upside sell targets at $36,000, 37,800, $41,227 and $44,487 areas.
Monero (XMR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
XMR/BTC
TradingView Binance XMR/BTC 4-hour linear chart
The 4-hour XMR/BTC chart remains in a “No Trend” stance and in a similar chop mode as bitcoin. This is a treacherous environment and traders should avoid trading this pair until some direction is established.
Trade idea: Sell short term trading positions at break even and preserve capital for better opportunities later. Long term investors can begin accumulating at 0.0057 and 0.0054 levels.
XMR/USDT
TradingView Binance XMR/USDT 4-hour linear chart
The XMR/USDT moved up to our sell targets last week and short term traders should have exited their positions at $220-$227 from our $200 level entry for a 10% profit. This pair is also mostly moving sideways now in chop mode. Indicators show compression is building and volatility will come, so neutrality is essential until we either move down into our lower buy levels or start rallying to the upside. Our new buy levels this week are at $186, $165 and $144 and traders should scale in as it moves lower.
Short term trade idea: Scale buy orders at $186, $165 and $144 and for selling at $239 and $249.
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre DERO/BTC daily linear chart
DERO/BTC continues to consolidate in the middle of the green OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) area. Squeeze momentum continues to trend downwards while MACD decelerates along with it. CMF shows BTC capital continues to flow out of the DERO/BTC pair, so we will not rush to buy here even though we are in the middle of the green box buy area. We could still bounce from here but the red box OTE short zone above would be extreme resistance where bears will take profits and push things down again after the huge pump 2 weeks ago. The 50 day moving average is back down at 0.00016 this week, so there remains plenty of room to the downside. The bottom of the OTE green box is at 0.000164 and the rest of the daily moving averages are below that. The bottom Bollinger Band is also rising towards the 50 SMA. Those are lower confluence areas with multiple indicators showing that we are definitely buyers of DERO when we get down into them.
Trade idea: Start accumulating near 0.000164. Scale in further at 0.00016 and 0.0001
Dero (DERO) Technical Analysis & Outlook
DERO/USD
Cointrader DERO/USD daily linear chart
The DERO/USD pair could be starting to make its journey down into our newly readjusted green OTE buy zone between $4.65 and $6.76. Fisher Transform has cooled off along with other indicators, but many have plenty of room below to continue cooling off. We have lost the middle Bollinger Band now and the lower band is rising into the bottom of the green box. Once DERO price gets into those lower levels, we will be buyers of that confluence area.
Trade idea: Start accumulating at $6.76 and scale in further as we get closer to $4.65.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre ARRR/BTC daily linear chart
ARRR/BTC has finally broken down out of the triangle as expected after last week’s report. The 200 SMA currently sits at 0.000053 and we can begin scaling into ARRR for the long term in this area. If ARRR corrects further, we will buy even more at the 0.0000453 level, which is an 85% correction from the parabolic top. 0.000031 is a 90% correction from the top. Historically, long term buys at the 85%-90% correction levels are excellent long term entries in crypto and we will follow this strategy for ARRR.
Trade idea: Begin accumulating more ARRR at 0.000053. Scale in further at 0.0000453 and 0.000031 levels for long term.
Pirate Chain (ARRR) Technical Analysis & Outlook
ARRR/USD
Cointrader ARRR/USD daily linear chart
Like the BTC pair, the ARRR/USD has also finally broken down from the triangle after last week’s report. We have hit the 200 day SMA and broken below it. This is an 85% correction from the top already and is a place to start accumulating. The lower Bollinger Band is at $1.87 and is a place where we should buy more. Below that we have $1.67, which is a 90% correction from the parabolic top and a great place to enter long term positions.
Trade idea: Continue accumulating ARRR at $2.20 area. Scale in further at $1.87 and $1.67 for long term.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
WOW/BTC
Coinigy TradeOgre WOW/BTC daily linear chart
The WOW/BTC is looking bearish while the 50 and 128 day moving averages above are about to make a death cross. Parabolic SAR is about to flip bearish and CMF shows BTC continues to flow out of this market. This pair already had a wick down into a 95% correction area from the parabolic top. Squeeze momentum is trending down and there is really no support in this area here. The only real support levels lie at 0.00000295 and 0.00000137. This is a high risk low cap coin and investors should allocate the recommended TCV portfolio percentage amount to minimize risk.
Trade idea: Accumulate at 0.00000137 area or below for long term holding.
Wownero (WOW) Technical Analysis & Outlook
WOW/USD
Cointrader WOW/USD daily linear chart
The WOW/USD pair is in a similar position to the bitcoin pair. Capital continues to flow out of this market as the 50 and 128 day moving averages have already death-crossed. We are currently in a 90% correction from the parabolic top. There is no real support in this area until $0.12 and $0.07. Investors should allocate the recommended TCV portfolio percentage amount to minimize risk.
Trade idea: Accumulate at $0.07 area or below for long term holding.
Summary
The market remains in chop mode and we have a long hot summer ahead. It is best to not engage in this type of market environment, except for the most experienced traders. Patience, discipline and time are required until we move into the next phase.
Good Luck, Good Trading!